Accuracy of Jingzhou 15 Day Weather Forecast

The accuracy of Jingzhou 15 weather forecast is not high.

Model weather forecast is to design a huge program to calculate weather forecast, and input the currently known weather phenomena, so that it can calculate the future atmospheric motion state and weather conditions. Any forecasting model can't completely and truly simulate the evolution of the atmosphere, it can only be approximate, so there must be errors. Moreover, the error will accumulate, and the longer the prediction time, the greater the error.

The change of weather is the result of the change of atmospheric movement around the earth. The basic laws of fluid mechanics and thermodynamics in physics can be used to analyze the movement and change of the atmosphere, and these laws can be written into mathematical equations in mathematical language. By solving these mathematical equations with a large computer, people can predict the future air pressure, temperature, wind direction, wind speed and precipitation in a certain area.

Weather forecast method

1, empirical extrapolation method

Also known as trend method, it infers the future position and intensity of various weather systems according to their past moving paths and intensity change trends on the weather map. This method is effective when the movement and intensity of the weather system do not suddenly change, or when the weather system does not regenerate or die. However, when it suddenly changes or the weather system is alive or dead, the forecast is often not realistic.

2. Similar to situational method

Also known as pattern method, it is to find some similar weather conditions from a large number of historical weather maps and summarize them into certain patterns. If the current weather situation is similar to that before a certain model, it can be predicted with reference to the later evolution of the model. Because similarity is always relative and can't be exactly the same, this method often leads to errors.