I want to learn to buy stocks. I wonder which expert can teach me.

The stock market is a noisy place. Many people who know better in life are deaf when they enter the stock market. The stock market is also a place full of temptations. Many people who are more rational at work will make a mess as soon as they enter the stock market. The stock market is a place with great uncertainty, and there are too many variables and games in this world. Therefore, investing in stocks requires independent thinking and calmness; It is necessary to simplify the complex, abandon the small and grasp the main contradiction; We need patience, "change with constancy" and reach the highest level of "winning without fighting".

Human nature has weaknesses, and I have gone through a long detour, belonging to a relatively stupid person. To sum up your investment history, the period from 1999 to 2002 is particularly important. In order to clarify the mistake that blind speculation almost led to bankruptcy before 1999, I read hundreds of books and thousands of financial statements for three consecutive years, focusing on investigating more than a dozen listed companies. I have racked my brains and suffered several times in thinking about investment, but after several practices, I found that the reason for investment is actually very simple. To sum up, there are four experiences, that is, investing in the atmosphere, choosing stocks strictly, buying stocks at any time and holding shares patiently.

Investment should be atmospheric.

Stock investment should be atmospheric. In the atmosphere of ups and downs of market prices, in the environment of alternating bull market and bear market with endless advantages and disadvantages, only by building a strategic position from top to bottom and grasping the core issues can we easily solve all the problems of making money. The core issue is that in the long run, society is progressing, economy is developing, and the stock market will always be upward. No matter how many ups and downs you experience, you can't change the long-term upward nature of the stock market. The Dow Jones industrial average in the United States was 100 at the beginning of last century, and now it has exceeded 13000. The Shanghai Composite Index 1990 is 100, and it has jumped more than 5,000 points. As an investor, you only need to strictly select stocks and simply buy and hold them.

Specifically, the investment climate includes the following points:

First, don't care about small interests ideologically. For example, a band, a little price difference, even pay attention to hanging low and hanging high for a few cents when buying and selling. People who focus on petty profits and speculate all day can't achieve great things. Although some investors know that a stock has excellent growth and development prospects and can rise tenfold in ten years, they always stare at the ups and downs after buying and care about the difference of a few dollars. As a result, they picked up sesame seeds and lost watermelons, but they couldn't buy them back, because they lost a lot. For example, Kweichow Moutai, China Petroleum and China Merchants Bank, many stock friends followed me to buy at a very low price, but few people have held it until now. In fact, none of the world's top investment masters are short-term speculators. If you think about it carefully, you will know that since the overall trend of the stock market is always upward, investors should have lofty goals, firmly grasp the stocks of excellent companies, make up their minds to make enough profits, and finally become billionaires by time.

Second, the operation does not pay attention to small skills. For example, high throwing and low sucking, stop loss, bottom top, pyramid structure, window of time, golden section, including the so-called bull market strategy, bear market strategy and so on are nothing but skills, not wisdom. There are more than 100 kinds of dazzling technical indicators in technical analysis, which are full of various seemingly subtle skills, just like the "2 1 point winning method" in casinos, but they are actually some small skills. How many people can succeed in this operation? Among them, wave theory is the most typical. There is a small wave inside the big wave, and there is a small wave below the small wave. There are always countless possibilities for trends. How do you operate it? Later, investing in stocks decided the "five noes" (I once said three noes): not following the market, not listening to news, not making predictions, not paying attention to skills, and not believing in technology. The most fatal problem of technical analysis is to break away from the company's fundamentals and explain everything with air-to-air price changes, that is, to break away from essence and phenomena, or to talk about phenomena from essence. Investors should give up all skills. This is not an exaggeration, but an important conceptual issue. The ancient Xiang Yu said: "Learn the sword and be an enemy; Learning books, ten thousand people are enemies! " The general may not be a sharpshooter, but he can command thousands of troops. The true master of the world can win without any weapons. Buying and holding for a long time, though simple, is a wise knowledge. Wisdom is better than skill. In fact, as long as you have blue-chip stocks for a long time in your life, you will never enjoy them, just like 18 Liu Yuansheng, who owns Vanke and becomes a rich man.

Third, the mentality is stable. Ignore the ups and downs of the market, and don't be afraid of unexpected events such as "9. 1 1", the financial crisis and the recent subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. Unstable mentality is the enemy of long-term investment. A sound and stable nervous system is an important condition for winning investment. At the same time, don't bother yourself with predicting short-term trends, which is actually a fortune-telling for the stock market. As soon as investors predicted, God smiled. I have always advocated not looking at the market, not looking at the red-green jump of prices, as long as I care about the fundamentals of listed companies. I did technical analysis for five years before 1999, and I worked harder than when I was in college. Finally, it is concluded that the short-term trend cannot be predicted, and there is no need to make short-term prediction. Before the reform and opening up, it was the biggest "bottom" of China's economy, and there was no "top" in this life. We should only care about whether it is an excellent company, focus on the future of the company, choose long-term holding and pay attention to long-term returns.

Fourth, the horizon is high. If you have great boldness of vision, you won't always stare at mediocre and failed companies, that is, you won't buy junk stocks, you will make up your mind to own only the stocks of the best companies, and you will strive to improve your quality and skills and hone a pair of eagle-like sharp eyes to distinguish various companies. We should choose excellent companies, not only the best in the industry, but also the best in the domestic market, and it is best to compare them on the world stage. We should spend our time and energy on choosing companies, try our best to make all our stock varieties the best, open an account, and let a hundred flowers blossom instead of weeds.

Investment atmosphere is very important, otherwise the essence of academic value investment will not be learned. Of course, learning value investment is much better than learning technical analysis and listening to gossip, but it doesn't mean learning Buffett. Learning from Buffett is the pursuit of Excellence and atmosphere on the basis of value investment. With atmospheric thinking, you can have lofty goals, long-term vision and lofty thoughts. Be a good person, buy stocks and invest money in companies that have a positive impact on society. There is a saying in Mr. Rong Yiren's family precepts that is worthy of our emulation: "Aim high, fortune is medium, happiness is low", and the first one emphasizes that we should have lofty aspirations. This is very important in guiding ideology and investment philosophy.

Stock selection should be strict

YEATION stock is the main contradiction of stock investment. The core problem of investment is how to get higher return with lower risk. To solve this problem, we must choose the right stocks. What is the investment concept? This is the investment philosophy.

Looking back at history, among all the traditional stock investment theories, the most basic theory is the "long-term friend theory". There is a famous saying in this theory: "Buy at will, buy at any time, don't sell". It captures the key problem of the stock market going up forever, but unfortunately the method is not rigorous enough and the thought is not excellent enough. I advocate critically inheriting this classic: I oppose "buying casually" because it will affect the long-term income level and become mediocre; Some agree with "buy at any time" because "buy at any time" is suitable for most people; I totally agree with "not selling" because "not selling" has grasped the general direction of investment. My motto is "Choose strictly, buy at any time, not sell".

The brilliant achievements of many investment masters in the world prove that strict stock selection is extremely important. Let's focus on the issue of "YEATION".

This has to mention the "random walk theory", which is inexplicably widely known. In order to prove that the market is effective, investors' stock selection work is futile. Taking monkeys as an example, it shows that it is not necessary to spend time carefully selecting stocks, and the result of stock selection is not much different from that of monkeys throwing darts. Although this experiment is very interesting, it is not scientific, and it can't prove the correctness of "buying casually", because most people's attention is attracted to the monkey by the experimenter, but they forget that the investors who compare with the monkey are mediocre investors (to be precise, some Wall Street stock critics). So Buffett seriously pointed out that if the market is always effective, we people have to drink the northwest wind.

To be an excellent investor, we must strictly select excellent companies. I told reporters who interviewed me many times that investors should have the spirit of "no accidents".

So what kind of stocks are amazing? There are two main meanings. First, you can own a few stocks that increase by 100 times in your lifetime. I have owned several stocks that have risen more than tenfold in five years. I believe that one day, a stock will rise by more than 100 times in my collection. I'm over 50, and I feel it's too late, so I only dare to mention 100 times. I have different requirements for my daughter. I want to own a few stocks that have risen more than 300 times in my lifetime. The second level means that the selected stock must be "loved by thousands of people", that is, it must have a variety of unique competitive advantages. No matter which way you look at the company, no matter how harsh it is, you can't pick out the problems that affect the company's long-term growth and income. It is so outstanding and outstanding.

Many people will be a little surprised to hear 100 times. In fact, it is not uncommon to give a few examples. For example, Wal-Mart and Microsoft have only been listed for 20 to 30 years, and their share prices have risen by 500 to 600 times. Vanke around us, according to the original share price 1990, has risen by more than 1400 times.

How to choose such an excellent listed company or stock? Need to read more financial statements? I want to emphasize that reading financial statements is only a basic aspect of value investment. I took a detour myself and almost came to a dead end. Paying attention to studying financial statements only shows that you care about fundamentals, which is really different from reading K-charts and listening to gossip, but it is not a value investment, nor does it mean learning from Buffett. In my opinion, it is the first step and key content of value investment to investigate and think about major issues of enterprises, such as sustainable competitive advantage, profit model, independent pricing ability, future profit growth point, industry characteristics, management issues, and the difference between market price and intrinsic value. These problems are not or are not directly reflected in the financial statements. Reading financial statements is included in the survey. We should think about the major problems of enterprises by reading financial statements. "I want to, so I earn", which is the importance of thinking. Because to choose an excellent company, it is not enough to look at the financial statements. A good investor should be the chairman, not the accountant.

To proceed from the overall situation, first consider whether the company has a unique competitive advantage. This "uniqueness" is extremely important, and you will screen out the dominant companies and ordinary companies at once. I have a habit. If I can't find a "unique" one in half an hour, I will give up, even if it seems that the stock price may be low. If someone asks me about a stock, I will first ask, "What are its unique advantages?"

When it comes to unique competitive advantage, many people will think that this is the core competitiveness that is often said. In fact, it includes core competitiveness, but it is not just core competitiveness. Strictly speaking, core competitiveness is a concept of management, which was put forward by two American management scientists in 1990. Mainly refers to the enterprise's research and development ability, manufacturing ability and marketing ability, as well as the ability to market products on the basis of product innovation. It emphasizes core competence and skills. This ability belongs to what I call a unique competitive advantage, and it is far from enough to use it as a standard to judge the advantages and disadvantages of enterprises. Management is science, while investment is the combination of science and art. In investment science, the meaning of unique competitive advantage is much richer. Otherwise, you can't understand what a "fool can make money" company is.

There are many unique competitive advantages. In order to understand "what is a good stock" more easily, I have summarized six main ones, which may overlap or be mutually causal.

First, monopoly advantage. According to the meaning of "monopoly" in economics, it means that a single seller or a few sellers control the production or sales of a certain industry. In my own words, this is an exclusive business. Or a little longer, it is exclusive operation, or the first launch and exclusive ownership of important products and services. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the Australian Stock Exchange are exclusive businesses, and there is no competition in the region. When Viagra from Pfizer was first introduced, it also ruled the world. Of course, in addition to exclusive operation, there is oligopoly. We often find that 80% of the market and profits are owned by two or three largest production organizations. Most bank credit cards have to go through the network of MasterCard or Visa, and the global carbonated beverage market is basically monopolized by Coca-Cola and Pepsi. The two largest milk markets in China are Mengniu and Yili. However, I prefer exclusive monopoly.

Second, resource advantages. Resources are factors related to the development of human society, which can be used to produce use value and affect labor productivity. Many companies have their own resources. The key to resources is scarcity, which can be divided into different grades according to the degree of scarcity. For example, Jiangxi Copper owns copper mines, but it does not have exclusive advantages, because many copper companies also own copper mines, which is not the highest level. China's oil grade is higher, South Africa's gold and diamond grade is higher, and the potash mine owned by Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer accounts for nearly 90% of the national total, so this resource advantage is unique. For example, Moutai can't be produced without Maotai Town, so the resource advantage of Maotai Distillery is exclusive. What I like best is the company with exclusive resource advantages.

Third, brand advantage. There are many enterprises with brands, and having brands does not mean having unique advantages. The uniqueness of brand advantage is simply that it is strong and strong to be the first in the industry. Maotai is called the national wine, Tongrentang is called the national medicine, and Nike's simple hook is the best sporting goods company and symbol in the world, which is deeply loved by the whole world, especially the younger generation of consumers. This advantage is also Buffett's favorite. He is called a consumer monopoly. I sometimes call it the consumer psychological profession, which is to hook the soul of consumers. For example, people will buy this brand for the same product, even if it is much more expensive.

Fourth, the ability and technical advantages. That's the most talked about core competitiveness. Ability refers to the skills of the company team in decision-making, R&D, production, management and marketing. For example, Vanke Company, before its brand became stronger, was the first in the real estate industry mainly because of its excellent management team and strong ability. The manufacturing technology of metered-dose inhalers in yantai wanhua is exclusive. Microsoft's technological advantage is simply the first in the world. If any software product doesn't apply to the WENDOWS system, you are in trouble. 1997 when I first came into contact with China Merchants Bank Card, I was deeply shocked by their professional ability, innovation ability and service ability. A card can actually contain all the local currency and foreign currency, and it is more convenient to carry than a passbook and will not reveal the deposit figures. This is the national leader at that time. Since then, they have continuously introduced innovative financial services and have been in the leading position in the industry. This is the most intuitive example of their technological advantage.

Fifth, policy advantages. Policy advantage mainly refers to the government's formulation of industrial policies and regulations conducive to development in order to strengthen the strategic position of related industries, so that related industries can form some restrictive advantages. In addition to the preferential policies of patent protection and tax reduction and exemption, there is also an interesting policy on the protection of origin. Like champagne. Champagne is a place in France. Only sparkling wine produced in this place can be called champagne, but not in other places. Policy advantage refers to this restrictive advantage. Yunnan Baiyao, Pien Tze Huang and Ma Yinglong are listed as national first-class protected varieties of traditional Chinese medicine. For a long time, no one else could produce them or even call them by this name. There are other wineries in Maotai Town, but only the liquor of Maotai Distillery can be called Maotai.

Finally, the industry advantage. Industry analysis is an important step for investors to make investment choices, and sometimes it is even a prerequisite for investment success. Because some industries have herds of bull stocks, investment has a high chance of winning; In some industries, bull stocks are scarce and the probability of winning investment is low. This is because the fundamentals are true: some industries have inherent advantages, and some industries are doomed to suffer. Some industries only grow steadily without periodicity, such as food and beverage industry; Some industries have high thresholds, and most enterprises can't get in, such as aerospace industry; Some industries just have the ability to raise prices. If you don't bargain, I will bargain, such as luxury goods industry. Products in some industries are not afraid of backlog, and even the more backlog, the more valuable it is, such as liquor and wine; Some industries are highly concentrated, and the advantage is that there are few competitors, such as banks and insurance, not to mention exchanges and bank card international organizations. Some experts like to argue with me with the economic theory that industry profits always tend to average, which means that when an industry has huge profits, it will inevitably attract more people and enterprises to enter, thus bringing about the final average of industry profits. In fact, this is just a general situation, and in many cases it is not, because industry barriers exist objectively.

Of course, having one of the unique competitive advantages does not constitute a sufficient condition for buying this company. With one of the unique competitive advantages, there is a premise of concern. The next thing to consider is whether this advantage can form a strong profitability? Such as tap water, electricity, gas, bridges, highways, railways and other public utilities. Although it has obvious monopoly advantages, it is subject to price control and has no independent pricing power, and few people can make big money. Among China companies listed in the United States, guangzhou-shenzhen railway performed poorly, and 1 1 only doubled. Railway is a highly monopolized industry, and business can't be better. You can't make much money because it is related to people's livelihood. Zhang Xiaoquan is a famous brand of scissors. When there is no competent management to continue to develop it, it will never win. Many companies have resource advantages, but when the prices of international commodity resources are at a low point, they are also helpless. When we invest in stocks, the most important thing is to see if it has a good return, and all the benefits must be implemented in the end.

So, what is the average annual profit growth rate of excellent companies? As I said before, I want to "swear forever." A good stock should have dozens of times the growth potential and prospects, with an average annual profit growth rate of not less than 20%. Of course, more than 30% is better. Maotai, China Merchants Bank and Vanke account for more than 30%. Mengniu even reached an astonishing 90% a few years ago.

Is it enough to have a unique competitive advantage and strong profitability? It is not enough, but also depends on whether its advantages and profitability can be maintained for a long time. Also known as sustainable competitive advantage. This is more difficult and more technical. Buying stocks means buying the future, and long-lived enterprises have high value. It is not difficult for a company to make money in one year, but it is difficult to make money all its life. When BB came out, the scenery was infinite, and it wouldn't work in a few years. Kodak, Le Kai and other film companies have become very passive due to the appearance of digital cameras. This requires us to have a longer-term vision and deeper thinking. This requires the company to "pamper itself", that is, to have multiple competitive advantages.

Some people may say that the company you are talking about is almost perfect and seems hard to find. In fact, there is more than one in my shareholding list, and interested readers may wish to use a set of conditions. Of course, "never give up" will not be an easy task. But you made a first-class wish, at least you can make a middle-class marriage. I mainly provide a rigorous way of thinking, and strive for perfection in stock selection, which is endless. This is the pursuit of Excellence, and this is impeccable.

Having said that, we have never talked about the price. Isn't the price too important? No, of course the price is important. The word "safe space" is simply the mantra of value investors. A good company and a good price are good stocks. I once summed up Buffett's investment strategy into twelve words: good stock, good price, long-term holding and appropriate diversification. It already includes a good price. But the main problem we are talking about is the problem of excellent companies. At the same time, I think, relative to the price, good stocks are the first. Good stocks first, then good prices; First qualitative, then quantitative. This is also an investment concept.

Buy stocks at any time.

Buying stocks at any time is to advocate "buying at any time". It must be noted that this is aimed at most people, especially the working class with stable follow-up funds.

People often ask me with a straight face: "Buy at any time, regardless of the price?" What if I buy a high-priced one? "In fact, the friend who asked the question didn't think it over carefully. The price problem is a complex problem, and even an unsatisfied and beyond the ability circle in practice. If you are lucky enough, you often encounter such a big opportunity as "9. 1 1" when you enter the market or after the financial crisis, that is certainly a beautiful thing. However, the stock market is unpredictable, and uncertainty is the mainstream, so we must deal with it "with constant changes". My experience is that efforts to seize opportunities will also lose opportunities, and giving up such efforts may seize more opportunities. Think more about methods, not too much about buying opportunities, and don't calculate the market winning rate all day. Different people have joined the work one after another, and sooner or later they will enter the market. Once you decide to invest, you will definitely buy high and buy low, but if you choose strictly and don't sell, even if you are not so lucky, you will eventually win.

Some stock friends quoted Mr. Buffett as sitting on tens of billions of dollars in cash, expressing their willingness to wait (until the right price) to refute my "buy at any time" and even accused me of being suspected of deviating from Buffett. However, after repeated thinking, I firmly believe that this is not a big mistake, especially after so many years. Seeing that many friends have been waiting for the prices of Kweichow Moutai, China Merchants Bank, Hong Kong Stock Exchange and other stocks to fall to their psychological prices, they have never been able to buy them, or they have lost patience and bought them higher. I can feel the importance of learning Buffett's dogma. Don't forget, in the survey of the status of millionaires and multimillionaires in the American investment community, although the top investors are often professional investors, the highest proportion is only ordinary investors who simply bought and held for a long time after World War II.