How to treat Wang Shi's "once in a thousand years" and inflation "looting" theory?

Wang Shi published an article in Weibo 14, so I won't publish it in order to save space. Let me give you an overview.

In 2020, the United States-led western countries released water, which led to an increase in global commodity prices.

For example, since the US dollar and the euro are global currencies, global procurement has led to an increase in the prices of wheat, corn and iron ore.

Dollar and euro, the harvest method bought by buy buy all over the world, are unbearable for some small countries, such as Venezuela.

Even in big countries, including the United States and Europe, this kind of printing money and releasing water will lead to all kinds of assets rising, such as iron ore rising, whether the construction cost of houses should rise, whether the manufacturing cost of cars should rise, and so on.

Why did he post a post and then delete it? Because he realized that his former real estate brother's identity would be used by people with ulterior motives.

In fact, he guessed right, and his post was immediately taken as a screenshot, which was widely spread among various real estate agents as a sales promotion.

For example, look, I didn't listen to Wang Shi, so I regretted it.

Since the reader asked about this post, let's make a comprehensive analysis.

First of all, Wang Shi is telling the truth. Of course, this is also nonsense.

It's March, 202 1. Tell me about what happened a year ago, no nonsense.

Generally speaking, the window of the capital market is only a few days. If it is a commodity or futures transaction, it may not be a few days. But if it is real estate, the time will be a little longer, a few months.

In any case, there is no reason for a year.

We often say, buy expectations. What do you mean by buying expectations?

This section has subway planning, and the entrance of this community is the subway entrance. Just got the news of the planning, people held an internal meeting to draw grass. This is the expected first stage and can be bought.

This plan may be discussed in the middle when it is submitted for approval, but before making a resolution, it is always clear that the probability of this matter passing is nine times out of ten. This is the expected second stage and can be bought.

There may be a gap of several weeks from planning to large-scale approval, because it takes time to spread the news. This is the expected third stage, and you can try to find out the loopholes.

After three stages, the rise begins. Of course, you can also buy it at this time. From now until the subway is completed and opened to traffic, in this process, you buy what you expect, but the later, the greater the risk.

Why? Because expectations are becoming a reality, news is landing.

If the news comes true, many people will enter the market early and list for sale. When there are many sellers, it is not so easy for you to sell at a good price.

You see, I just built a simplified model for you to explain the expected impact on this house.

In fact, the price of this house is influenced by many factors, not just the subway entrance. Perhaps there are schools and hospitals around, which is related to the monetary policy at that time, and even the macro trend and various expectations. It is a process of comprehensive superposition.

But this model is necessary. Before we can understand the multivariate quadratic equation, we must first understand the univariate linear equation.

If you understand linear equations, you will know that Wang Shi said this too late.

Let's talk about this topic. 10 was more than a month ago. He has been talking about this for so long. What's the point?

As Monkey Sun said, I have eaten enough peaches on the mountain for seven times, but now you just say there is a peach tree on the mountain, so the information content in this sentence is zero.

Of course, in reality, he is not zero. Why? It is the propagation delay effect mentioned above.

When you think that people all over the world know something, in fact, 99% people all over the world don't.

After Wang Shi said such a big V, maybe only 10% people knew it.

The above is my interpretation of what he said.

Let's look at the words of the intermediary again. Of course, the intermediary will not tell you what the buying expectation is, nor will it talk about the stages of buying expectation, let alone the risk-return ratio of different stages, neither.

They will only tell you one thing. If you don't buy it, you have to endure currency depreciation.

This statement is just rhetoric. If rhetoric is raised to the academic level, it is the following passage.

I have said many times that low risk, high liquidity and high return are an impossible triangle.

For example, Tencent's stock has gone up. If you want to hold cash and have liquidity, then Tencent's stock has gone up and there is no income.

For example, Tencent's stock and bitcoin have both gone up, and bitcoin has gone up a lot, but the risks are also great. If you want to enjoy the high yield of Bitcoin, you must bear the risk much higher than Tencent's stock.

Low risk, high liquidity and high return are like three points in a triangle. You have to sacrifice something.

Of course, this is just a theory.

Theory is used to break. High-frequency trading can fill all three points, but at the expense of another thing, it greatly raises the transaction cost.

High frequency, high transaction frequency and high handling fee. Just like your principal is 100 yuan, you have been trading for one year, and the handling fee is 400 yuan. Then how do you make a profit?

Your 100 will become 600. Deduct the 400 handling fee generated by day trading, and you really double it.

The change from 100 to 600 is a terrible number in the eyes of medium and long-term investors. Therefore, in the eyes of long-term investors such as stock speculators and real estate speculators, it is crazy to do so, and the mouse has become the maid of honor of the cat.

You actually quadrupled, but you can only get 1 times, in exchange for only liquidity, which is equivalent to holding cash at all times, which is not worth it.

Of course, it is not only liquidity, but also the risk of falling.

Just like a stock trader, no matter whether you hold Tencent's stock or Bitcoin, you will bear the loss as long as it falls, but a high-frequency person does not need to bear this. He is almost equal to zero holding time. If you don't hold a position, you don't have to bear the decline.

Of course, from another angle, you can also think that he ate a buffet, and it is enough to pay in one lump sum. After all, his handling fee is much higher than others' losses.

I say this to make you understand one thing. If you want to hold money and enjoy liquidity while maintaining high returns, there is no way out except high frequency.

The high-frequency natural transaction costs lead to the overwhelming majority of people who embark on this path, and in just a few months, they will lose their blood, specifically, they will lose their blood after paying the handling fee.

When I met a river on the road, of course everything that could fly flew away. What should I do if they can't fly? Go around.

If you can't afford the handling fee, the only way is to reduce the transaction frequency. Impulse is the devil, and day trading is taboo.

Governing the country is like cooking small fresh food, and investing is like cooking small fresh food. If you keep tossing the fish in the pot, it will turn over easily.

So how can we reduce the frequency of transactions? Just bear it, okay?

Patience is the hardest thing to do. The rivers and mountains may change, but not one's essential nature

A sentence that sounds ordinary can block most people's lives.

I tell you, in fact, most people can reduce the frequency of trading only when it is inconvenient to trade.

Think about it. In reality, who do you think makes the most money besides starting a business?

Are they all buyers? You haven't heard much about people who make money by speculating in stocks, let alone there are many kinds in the international market.

Why is this happening? It is caused by the long transaction cycle of the house and the inconvenience of selling it.

In fact, if you are a professional, you will find that in the professional world, there are very few people who invest in real estate to make money.

Just like in the real billiards world, all the experts play snooker. The reason why I usually see American black eight is because it is simple and easy to use, and it is very popular in the streets.

By the same token, it takes a long time to buy and sell real estate, which makes many people passively unable to trade in the day.

You have Tencent's stock in your hand, and the mouse is sold at a glance. You have a house in your hand, hang it out, wait for months to see it, and haven't sold it yet. You are tired and don't want to sell.

So you can get the house, but you can't get Tencent shares.

As you can see, from a professional point of view, real estate is not a good variety, with poor liquidity and risks linked to policies, but its poor natural liquidity just inhibits the impulse of amateur investors to trade in the day.

So since we're talking about this, let's analyze it further. What kind of property is easier to hold?

It's simple. It is relatively close to your long-term work and life, and it is easier for you to decorate and rent the property.

For example, you live in Shenzhen, work in Shenzhen, live in Shenzhen, your children go to school in Shenzhen, and buying a house in Xishuangbanna is an investment, but it is too far away from you. No matter what we say about Banna's future, it's hard for you to hold it, and it's often trapped and you can't sell it at all.

But if you are still in Shenzhen, how many suites have you bought next to the company? The house is decorated and rented, which can be easily held for a long time.

Because of separation? House decoration itself has a cost. If you do, you must intend to hold it for a long time.

If this is the case, cities are very important, population inflow is very important, and the sector is also very important, because now cities are big, and some big cities have people flowing in from some areas and people flowing out from some areas, and the long-term prospects are different.

We talked a lot today, but I didn't give you any advice.

If you can think about the above points, you will know that there is no universal suggestion, because people are different, and people are really different.

Not many people can solve the problem of transaction cost, so most people have to choose from the impossible triangle.

The vast majority of people can't resist the impulse to trade, so they can only choose varieties with poor liquidity.

Of course, from a more fundamental point of view, the above analysis can be ignored. Because you still have a road to change.

You don't have to worry about the general trend of the world at all, just remember one thing: your life will not be bad if you stay in a relatively excellent group.

Think about it, even in the Republic of China, isn't Professor Peking University still holding 280 yuan? Can he pull a rickshaw? He regrets a few words at most, writes a novel "The Boy Pulling a Rickshaw", and can still get the manuscript fee in the future.