Forecast of epidemic situation development trend in COVID-19

The epidemic situation in COVID-19 takes several months as a cycle, and small-scale epidemics appear alternately in each cycle.

Novel coronavirus (20 19, coronavirus pneumonia-19), referred to as "COVID-19", was named "20 19 coronavirus disease" by the World Health Organization, which refers to the pneumonia caused by novel coronavirus infection in 20 19. Since 20 19 and 12, many cases of unexplained pneumonia with a history of exposure to the seafood market in South China have been found in some hospitals in Wuhan, Hubei Province, and were diagnosed as acute respiratory infectious diseases caused by novel coronavirus infection in 20 19.

On February/KOOC-0//KOOC-0/day, 2020, the Director-General of the World Health Organization, Ted breyer Ghebreyesus, announced in Geneva that novel coronavirus would be named "Coronavirus Pneumonia-/KOOC-0/9". On February 22nd, the National Health and Wellness Committee issued a notice, and the English name of "novel coronavirus" was changed to "coronavirus pneumonia-19". On March 1 1, WHO thought that the current COVID-19 epidemic could be called a global epidemic. On April 4th, China held a national mourning activity.

On August 65438+8, 2008, the National Health and Family Planning Commission revised and completed the novel coronavirus Diagnosis and Treatment Plan (Trial Eighth Edition). On September 3rd, the WHO expert group on COVID-19 epidemic response assessment and its chairman announced the list of experts at the briefing of member countries, and Zhong Nanshan was selected.

Pathogenic characteristics:

According to the existing case data, novel coronavirus is mainly characterized by fever, dry cough and fatigue, and a few patients are accompanied by symptoms of upper respiratory tract and digestive tract such as nasal congestion, runny nose and diarrhea. Severe cases often have dyspnea after 1 week, and severe cases quickly progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome, septic shock, refractory metabolic acidosis, bleeding and coagulation dysfunction and multiple organ failure.

It is worth noting that severe and critically ill patients may have moderate to low fever or even no obvious fever during the course of the disease. Mild patients only show low fever and mild fatigue. , and no pneumonia. Judging from the cases admitted at present, most patients have recovered well, and a few patients are in critical condition. The prognosis of the elderly and those with chronic basic diseases is poor. The symptoms of children's cases are relatively mild.