Beware: hot-hand effect who turned you into a gambler.

Attend a friend's wedding. After dinner, we get together to play mahjong. I want to go. Everyone said that we finally got together. Don't go. Sit down for a while. I don't play cards, I just sit by and watch them play. Xiao Li's first hand is very confused, only to hear someone joke: "cutting 1000 yuan is not the first hand, you should be careful today!" " I asked curiously what this meant, and everyone explained that in general, the first hand has Hu cards, and in the end, it is highly probable that they will lose.

Is that really the case? People who win money at first will lose more money in the end? I thought and thought, and finally I thought of the psychologically interesting hot-hand effect.

Many people will feel lucky or feel good about themselves, and everything will be handy and very smooth.

Psychologists call this phenomenon of judging the future trend of things by personal intuition hot-hand effect. When hot-hand effect acts on people, people will become professional gamblers and continue to gamble with their own good mood.

This wonderful psychological effect is due to people's wrong cognition of intuition. When people feel good about themselves at first, there will be positive psychological hints, thus mobilizing people's enthusiasm and concentration. When contingency happens, people's enthusiasm and good self-feeling will be superimposed, resulting in greater positive emotions, which will make people fall into a distorted view of things and acquiesce that there is a connection between certain things.

In fact, the first success is not necessarily related to the second success. For example, the gambler won three games in a row at the gambling table. Because of hot-hand effect, he thinks he can continue to win. However, there is no direct correlation between his three-game winning streak and his fourth winning streak. Objectively speaking, whether he wins at cards depends on the relationship between the cards in his hand and those in others' hands. And what cards you get and what cards others get are random. In other words, the previous "record" has nothing to do with the subsequent situation.

Just like fans or gamblers misled by "hot-hand effect", investors' stock price forecasts are easily influenced by previous price information, and intuition replaces rational analysis, resulting in the so-called "heuristic psychology". For example, the share price of a pharmaceutical company has been rising for a long time. In the initial stage, investors may behave as "hot-hand effect", thinking that the trend of stock price will continue, "buy up and not buy down"; However, once the stock price has been rising at a high level, investors are worried that the rising space will be smaller and smaller, and the price trend will "reverse", so the selling tendency will increase, resulting in the "gambler fallacy". Hot-hand effect's and gambler's fallacies all come from people's psychological cognitive deviation-that is, they think that the results of a series of events imply autocorrelation to some extent.

Some people may think that I won't fall into the trap of hot-hand effect if I don't play cards or stocks. In fact, hot-hand effect stems from people's misunderstanding of their intuition. In life, many people will habitually act according to their intuition.

For example, someone wants to buy a house. When she walks into a house and feels good, she will think that she has a fate with this house and then buy this house. A girl who is going to an interview will twist her ankle in the morning and then go out in high heels ... at this time, she will feel that the interview will definitely fail.

Hot-hand effect will turn people into professional gamblers, such as betting on feelings, buying lottery tickets, betting on jobs and even betting on feelings.

For example, a girl I know feels really lucky today because she won 10 yuan in the lottery, and the blind date she meets in the future should be good. So she picked up tarot cards and divined for herself. As a result, as she wished, she drew a good card.

With the good mood of meeting the only thrill, she came to the blind date scene and met the gentle other half. Because I felt good before, it was very pleasant to communicate with each other.

From the day of blind date, the girl found out that the other person was a person who could bring her good luck. Not only will you win prizes when you buy things, but you will also be handy at work and be affirmed by the leaders. Because of this series of good feelings, they got married within three months. However, after less than half a year of marriage, the two agreed to divorce because of their incompatible personalities and huge differences in their views.

This is the illusion that hot-hand effect brought to her, making her feel lucky forever. In fact, winning the prize to buy things is affirmed by the leaders, and there is no necessary connection with meeting the only thrill. So, be careful that hot-hand effect turns you into a gambler.

By the way, Xiao Li who cheated the first card that day was also the final winner.

Day 5 of No Day Challenge Camp