Fortune Telling Collection - Comprehensive fortune-telling - Is there an economic bubble behind Maotai?

Is there an economic bubble behind Maotai?

I don't understand the practical value of liquor, but I can calculate the value. Kweichow Moutai, as a giant of A-shares, has no economic bubble of 1600+ per share now, and it is not troublesome to explain. As long as there is a pen and paper, as long as the results are separated out, it is a bit like students doing math problems. Simply put, P/E ratio, P/B ratio and stock price are all visible "numbers", but the numbers themselves are obtained through "calculation". Because they are calculated, there is a set of mature and perfect "calculation formula" behind the market operation. Everyone is following the mathematical formula, and the numbers are just realized.

Example 1: For example, if Xiaoming eats two eggs a day, how many eggs will he eat a year? This is easy to calculate. Example 2: If Xiaoming eats two eggs a day and doesn't eat them on legal holidays and weekends, how many eggs does he want to eat a year? This is a little more difficult than the first one. It's actually a simple mathematical function. The stock market calculation is so simple, but the process is more complicated.

Last year, the stock price of Maotai was 900, and this year's opening valuation 1400+ is easy to calculate 900* 1.6= 1440, but this calculation process is only so intuitive at the last step. The process includes asset calculation, equity calculation, net assets per share calculation, price calculation, market value calculation, price-to-book ratio calculation, net profit calculation, net profit per share calculation, P/E ratio calculation, growth rate calculation and P/E ratio calculation, and it needs to be compared with the same industry.

Each formula is different, and the final sum result is 900* 1.6, which means that it can be predicted that Kweichow Moutai will reach 1440 no matter how it falls or rises in the middle of this year. What you think is dealing with politics and economy, and the situation in years is actually dealing with mathematics. Any policy or development is aimed at "growth", otherwise there will be no development.

If you can understand a series of calculations, you will know that there is no bubble in Kweichow Moutai, because you must first understand the most basic price-to-book ratio, the tangible assets (factory buildings, labor and costs) and intangible assets (liabilities and net assets) of the enterprise.

Take IOUs as chestnuts to understand. If you owe 5000 yuan, you are someone else's grandson. If you owe more than one billion yuan, someone else is your grandson. So there is no bubble in Maotai.