202 1 Ten global trends: let the dice of fate fly.

It will soon enter 202 1 year. In the west, the number 2 1 stands for luck, adventure and dice. Because the points of an ordinary dice add up to 2 1. And 2 1 year-old is the minimum age required to enter American casinos, and 2 1 point is also the most popular card game name for gamblers.

These all seem to have a strange consistency with the upcoming new year, but there are many uncertainties! The greatest success is that it is possible to control COVID-19. But at the same time, health system, economic vitality and social stability also face many risks.

1. Fight for a vaccine

Once a sufficient number of the first vaccines are available, the next contradiction is how to distribute them. Vaccine diplomacy will be accompanied by struggles within and between countries. There is also a very big unknown: if the vaccine is provided, how many people will refuse it?

2. Economic recovery

If the economy can recover from the epidemic, it will be intermittent, because all localities have taken countermeasures according to the epidemic, and the government will swing back and forth between trying to save enterprises and helping workers. The gap between the strong and the weak will widen.

3. Repair the world order

If Joe Biden enters the White House, to what extent can he repair the collapsed world order? The Paris climate agreement and the Iranian nuclear agreement are obvious starting points. However, although this collapse began with Trump, it will not automatically repair with the end of his presidency.

4. the tension between China and the United States has intensified.

Don't expect Biden to cancel the trade war with China! Instead, he will seek cooperation with his allies to improve the efficiency of the war. From Europe, Africa to Southeast Asia, many countries will face the choice of position when the tension intensifies.

5. Enterprises bear the brunt.

Another frontier of Sino-US conflict is enterprises, and Huawei and Tik Tok are obvious examples. Economy is increasingly becoming a geopolitical battlefield.

In addition, company bosses will face greater pressure from the lower levels, because customers and employees want them to have a clear stand on climate protection and social justice.

6. Technology acceleration

In 2020, the epidemic will accelerate many digital technologies, such as video conferencing or online shopping, home office or distance education. 202 1, whether these changes continue or disappear will become clearer.

7. A carefree world is hard to recover.

Tourism will reduce its business or face changes, and domestic travel is likely to become a trend next year. Airlines, hotel chains and aircraft manufacturers continue to be hit hard. Universities that rely on foreign students will also have to cope with the pressure and cultural exchanges will also be affected.

8. Opportunities to address climate change

The silver lining in the crisis is the opportunity to deal with climate change. The government is investing in a green economic recovery plan to create jobs and reduce emissions. However, how many emission reduction commitments postponed from 2020 to next year's United Nations Climate Conference can be realized?

9. Year of activity?

Next year will make people feel that it is still in 2020 to some extent. Because many political, commercial and sports activities that should have been held this year, such as the Olympic Games and the Dubai World Expo, have been postponed for one year. Of course, now Japan is temporarily closed to the outside world because of the emergence of a new mutant virus in Britain, and all foreigners are refused entry. Therefore, it is still unknown whether the Olympic Games scheduled to be held in Japan next year can be held as scheduled.

10. Be alert to other risks.

Many scholars and analysts warned of the epidemic years ago. They now call on politicians to face other risks that have been neglected so far more seriously, such as antibiotic resistance and nuclear terrorism.

In any case, the development next year will be particularly difficult to predict, because we don't know how the epidemic, economic development and geopolitics will develop. But not all expectations are bad luck and darkness. We should focus on the lessons of some positive changes in the crisis. So, let the dice fly, no matter what card you get at 202 1, it may be good for you.