Sun Xingjie: The success or failure of Russia in 2023 is not sensational.

Direct news: The United States and Germany announced that they would provide Ukraine with main battle tanks almost at the same time. What impact will this move have on the Russian-Ukrainian war situation?

Special commentator Sun Xingjie: There has been a long-standing discussion between the United States and the European Union about whether to provide tanks to Ukraine. Ukraine has repeatedly called on the United States and the European Union to provide tanks, artillery, fighter planes, air defense systems and other weapons and equipment since last year. With the progress of the war, Ukraine acquired artillery, air defense systems and other equipment. The recent fighting between the Russian and Ukrainian armies in Soledad shows that the Russian and Ukrainian armies are in a stalemate. On the whole, the offensive and defensive situation between Russia and Ukraine has changed, but in local battles or campaigns, the trench warfare between Soledad and Bakhmut is ominous. If it continues, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will be prolonged. The Ukrainian army is planning a strategic counterattack in the spring and needs new weapons and equipment, especially main battle tanks, long-range artillery and even fighter planes. Therefore, from the tactical level, or the battlefield situation, the Leopard tanks and Abrams tanks provided by the United States and Germany show that Ukraine has obtained world-class main battle tanks and broken the battlefield deadlock; From a strategic point of view, Ukraine can form a tank corps. If a spring counterattack is launched, there may be scenes in tank battle, where NATO tanks confront Russian tanks.

American "abrams" main battle tank. Source: theguardian

The course of the war does not depend on weapons, but weapons and equipment such as main battle tanks represent the change of attitudes of the United States and NATO, and the goal of assisting the Ukrainian alliance has changed significantly and substantially, that is, from helping Ukraine defend itself to helping Ukraine fight back. Ukrainian President Zelensky said that this is an important step towards victory. In other words, the goal of the United States and NATO is victory. Of course, if Ukraine counterattacks across the Russian-Ukrainian border, the nature of the war will change and the confrontation between NATO and Russia will further escalate.

From the process of providing tanks from the United States and Germany, we can see several noteworthy phenomena: First, Britain and Poland are the most active in providing main battle tanks, especially Poland has repeatedly released news of providing leopard tanks. If Poland wants to provide tanks to Ukraine, it needs Germany's consent and puts pressure on Germany in disguise. If Germany wants to play a leading role in the EU, it must do something. Many European members of NATO are equipped with German tanks if Germany refuses. Second, the United States and Germany announced at the same time to provide their own advanced tanks, which is actually the deepening and deep binding of the US-Germany alliance. Third, Russia admits that NATO tanks are only verbal warnings. With the prolongation of the war, the battlefield in Ukraine consumes not only Russia's military strength and weapons, but also Russia's strategic position and reputation. The red line drawn by Russia was ignored by the United States and NATO, and Russia's strategic deterrence was greatly eliminated.

Direct news: Russian scholar Trenin believes that 2023 is a crucial year for Russia. What's your comment on this view?

Special commentator Sun Xingjie: Trenin published a series of articles after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out. Many viewpoints can stand the test of time. As he himself said, predicting the trend of political events is a thankless and meaningless effort. However, in this era, we not only need, but also have the opportunity to have a deeper understanding of the major trends affecting the world. I think this is a way and perspective for Trenin to observe the international situation. The observer is not a prophet, let alone a fortune teller, but he should perceive the future trend from the changes of some basic factors. Trenin's previous views on the fragility of Russian diplomacy and the end of Russian Federation 1.0 are still worthy of attention.

Whether the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will end in 2023 is anybody's guess, but the basic situation of the Russian and Ukrainian armed forces on the battlefield will be presented, which is the success or failure problem mentioned by Trenin. Any conflict will eventually end through peaceful negotiations, but the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has become a "patriotic war" between Russia and Ukraine. Needless to say, President Zelensky has become the president to defend the country. By September last year, after Russia merged four eastern States into Russia, President Putin pointed the finger at NATO and the West, and the special military action became a "Great Patriotic War" or even a "Great Patriotic War". Under such a narrative of the "Great Patriotic War", the possibility of a compromise truce is slim. On the battlefield, we must distinguish between success and failure, and finally end the war with success or failure. Trenin put forward that 2023 is a matter of success or failure, and actually expressed deep concern. Can Russia win? He believes that for Russia, this conflict is not only related to external security and its position in the world, but also to internal stability, including the cohesion of the regime and Russia's future as a country. This shows that Trenin raised the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to the height of World War I, and even to the height of the national destiny discussed by Berdyaev in his book The Destiny of Russia after World War I. ..

Judging from the progress of the war, Russia has stepped into the quagmire of the Ukrainian battlefield. It is difficult for Russia to win under the continuous consumption. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not only a war between Russia and Ukraine, but also a confrontation between NATO and Russia. The Soviet Union did not have such a fierce conflict with NATO during the Cold War. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine can be regarded as the real end of the Cold War. The goal of assisting the Ukrainian alliance has become to defeat Russia. From the logic of world history, a series of wars in Europe since18th century can be regarded as wars between the sea power state system centered on Britain and the European empire. France and Germany were defeated one after another, and now it's Russia's turn. From this perspective, it is not sensational for Trenin to say that 2023 is related to the future of Russia as a country.

Author Sun Xingjie, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's Live Broadcasting of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.