Regarding the current situation of space junk, is the earth surrounded by satellites for a whole circle?

Some time ago, the FCC also approved Internet satellite projects such as OneWeb, Starlink and LEOSat. At the same time, space internet entrepreneurship is full of joy. At the same time, for the future of this huge constellation, the only certainty is the rapid growth of the number of satellites, so the future of this debris and dust is obviously not completely worrying.

In particular, these plans are aimed at the orbital altitude of 1 0,000 km to 1 4000 km, so we can see that the number of satellites in this orbital interval will increase dramatically in the next decade. On the one hand, seeing that the lower rail is not relaxed for a long time is also a very important reason why these big plans have to be squeezed into this rail section.

Moreover, these companies are not the only companies that have proposed these large-scale constellation plans, and many companies are planning similar plans. The future of the sky is just around the corner. In the next ten years, the number of all spaceships in history will appear. So now all parties are discussing the 25-year derailment agreement, hoping to shorten this time to 5 years.

This means that every satellite has to add a new complex dimension.

Generally speaking, the life of a satellite is viewed from two angles. One is the orbital life, that is, the time it can stay in orbit; One is the functional life, that is, the time when a satellite can function.

With the implementation of this agreement, satellites need to retain almost all the functions of the satellite platform except the load function after completing the mission, so this life should be fully considered in the design, which means that all satellites will increase the platform life by 5 years. This undoubtedly greatly increases the cost of satellites and the cost of operation control.

Moreover, satellites such as Internet satellites, which are strongly restricted by technological development, need to have a relatively high iteration frequency, so they may need to be updated within ten years. Therefore, there will be a large number of satellites in space running and in orbit at the same time, so the number will inevitably increase further.

In fact, debris has grown at a very high speed in the past ten years, so it seems to be an irresistible trend in the future.

I suddenly remembered a message I heard not long ago that USGS was going to close the open satellite film of Landsat. Looking back on my undergraduate graduation project and postgraduate internship, I used a lot of Landsat pictures, but I still feel very moved. On the one hand, I feel a huge retrogression, on the other hand, I see a huge increase in demand.

Today's space debris basically relies on the US space surveillance network SSN to provide the prediction of larger debris, and the completion of this prediction depends on a large number of ground optics, radar systems and space-based surveillance systems in the United States. The main task of this system is military, and providing the forecast information of space debris can also be regarded as a way to exert public value. However, SSN service is also likely to close this public service.

Then the future space situation information will become a very valuable business.

First of all, the number of satellites mentioned above has greatly increased, so the forecast information of space targets becomes very important in order to put satellites into the predetermined orbit safely. Similarly, the process of satellite de-orbit is also slow, and it is necessary to cross more and more dense areas. If there is not enough detailed and advance planning, it is estimated that the possibility of collision and further evolution into debris disaster will increase dramatically.

Secondly, this business will add more meaning. The surveillance of space targets has always been a field of deep integration of military and civilian. With the establishment of American space combat agencies and Japanese space security forces, the military value of space in the future will be further highlighted. So this business has great military value as well as commercial value. Therefore, it can be said that it is a model field for the integration of national defense and civilian technology in the future.

Finally, the whole operation and control in the future will enter a new era, and the spacecraft will not be intelligent. The future orbital haze or sandstorm is an intelligent haze, which can be a safety haze, otherwise it will trap itself firmly and it will be difficult to get out again. So it is a cloud of wisdom.

Some ambitious plans may also be short-sighted and worth thinking about where to look.