6G is on the road, which companies will benefit?

In 20 15, Musk launched the "Star Chain Project"-launching 42,000 Vanke satellites to provide Internet access services to over 654.38 billion people worldwide. Six years have passed, and now, this whimsical idea has caught up with Musk's luck as always. People associate it with the next generation communication technology 6G, and eagerly look forward to Musk's "putting a big satellite".

So, is 6G really here? Are the enterprises in China ready? Is it a good opportunity for investors?

What does 6G look like?

Standing at the transition point from 4G to 5G, the emergence of 6G now comes more from imagination.

From the data point of view, 6G is faster, the peak data transmission speed can reach 1Tb per second, which is 50 times faster than 5G, the reliability is 5G 100 times, the delay is less than 100 microsecond, which is one tenth of that of 5G, and the traffic density can reach 107/Km2, which is ten times of that of 5G. ...

With high speed, low delay and high reliability, 6G will accomplish more complex tasks in various scenarios, and it will integrate a series of different technologies more than ever before.

On June 6th, China IMT-2030(6G) Promotion Group released the White Paper on the Overall Vision and Potential Key Technologies of 6G, which mentioned that 6G will form eight business application scenarios, including immersive cloud XR, holographic communication, sensor interconnection, intelligent interaction, communication perception, inclusive intelligence, digital pairing and global coverage.

Under 6G, people may have the opportunity to feel another virtual digital twin world outside the real physical world. Sensors inside and outside the body will collect and analyze data to generate digital twins and twin worlds. People will no longer be limited by time and space, step into the twin world to explore virtual reality, and the form of interaction between people will be completely changed. 6G will also make it possible for remote precision surgery and engineering construction.

With the super ability of 6G, people can also complete the signal coverage in the air, space, sea and ground through the * * networking of satellites with ground and underwater base stations, so that people can connect to ultra-high-speed networks in any corner of the universe.

6G can also make autonomous driving a reality, vehicle-road coordination, edge calculation, low-delay and highly reliable network signals, and connect cloud computing through on-board sensors, making traffic reliable and efficient.

The sci-fi scene will be realized by 6G, but before that, some key technologies are difficult problems that researchers need to solve.

GG needs a higher rate signal, which corresponds to terahertz communication technology. Need long-term power supply, corresponding to battery and wireless energy transmission technology; Need a new access mechanism, corresponding to cellular MIMO technology; Need to realize multi-domain communication, corresponding to satellite, ground and underwater integrated communication; Need higher security and reliability, corresponding to the development of blockchain power distribution. ...

6G, which is still in the hazy imagination, has already made technological powers and giants look at it. Whoever can solve key technical problems faster and become the maker of 6G network standards will be able to master the scientific and technological field within ten years.

initiator

So, which companies are "leading" in 6G R&D? What other companies will be pushed to the upcoming 6G new socket?

Like 5G technology, communication equipment vendors are the main force in the research and development field.

Huawei started the research and development of 6G from 20 17-two years earlier than the commercialization of ——5G, and ZTE also set up a special 6G research team on 20 18. OPPO, VIVO, Xiaomi and other companies in the first echelon of domestic smart devices have announced the R&D plan of 6G. In 2020, OPPO announced that it will invest 50 billion yuan in the research of 6G technology in the next three years.

Specific to the supply of key technologies, a number of listed companies revealed the relationship between their business and 6G.

The first is the research and development of terahertz technology. Terahertz wave has the characteristics of high frequency, short pulse and strong penetration, and can be used as a high-speed broadband communication carrier for 6G communication.

Listed companies such as China News Ark, Sichuang Electronics, Daheng Technology, Hengtong Optoelectronics, Fiona Fang Optoelectronics, etc. all disclose that their business covers 6G related services. In terms of supporting base stations, OSCOM is cooperating with customers to develop PCB products, and Yihua also confirmed that it is developing new high-speed connector products and cooperating with customers such as Huawei and ZTE.

Another competitive field highly related to 6G is LEO satellite technology, and quite a few scholars interpret 6G as "5G+ LEO satellite". Compared with high-orbit synchronous orbit satellites, Earth-orbit satellites have the advantages of low cost, low delay, higher reliability and no communication blind area, and can seamlessly link the global Internet. If LEO satellites finally integrate with terrestrial Internet, 80% of the world's land and 95% of the ocean areas that cannot be covered by 5G will be expected to access the Internet.

At present, including the Star Chain Project of Space Exploration Technology Company, more than 25 constellation plans have been released around the world, and the number of satellites planned to be launched exceeds 654.38 million+. According to the analysis of relevant institutions, China will also usher in the peak period of investment in LEO satellites around 2023.

Different from foreign commercial enterprises leading satellite research and development, the manufacturing and launching of LEO satellites in China are still dominated by military enterprises. Among the listed companies, China Satellite, Big Dipper, China Satcom and Space Technology are closely related to satellite technology. Kangtuo Infrared, Hongyuan Electronics, Tianao Electronics, Huali Chuangtong and Yaguang Technology are engaged in the production of core semiconductor components.

In terms of technology application, 6G technology will also bring new changes to entertainment, medical health and industrial production. Concepts such as AR/VR applications, remote diagnosis and treatment, and industrial Internet that broke out under the concept of 5G are expected to be derived in the 6G era. More product forms.

Will it really come as scheduled?

China enterprises that set foot on the 6G track one after another have to face many practical problems if they want to take the initiative in the future.

The first is the pressure from international competition. As countries all over the world enter the era of 5G network, the strategic competition around 6G has begun. The United States, Europe, Japan, South Korea and other countries and regions have put the development of 6G technology at the height of national strategy. Especially in the United States, due to strategic decision-making mistakes, the United States lags behind in the Sino-US 5G technology competition, which is the first time in the history of communication technology development in the past 60 years. In order to regain its dominance in the field of science and technology, the United States has made a heavy bet on 6G technology. Not only in China, a number of top technology companies such as Apple, Google, Intel, Cisco and Hewlett-Packard have joined forces to engage in R&D, but also in the international arena, excluding Huawei and ZTE.

Such a scene has been staged once in the 5G era.

On September 15, 2020, the U.S. ban on Huawei came into effect, and chip companies using American technology will not be allowed to supply Huawei without permission. In less than a year, Huawei's mobile phone business has been seriously weakened. In the first quarter of this year, Huawei shipped 6,543,800+049,000 units in the China market, down 50% year-on-year. Among domestic brand mobile phones, the market share dropped to the third place. In reality, the enthusiasm of consumers is still there, but Huawei has no goods to sell. In the 6G era, China manufacturers such as Huawei will undoubtedly face stronger competitors and a worse international competitive environment.

Secondly, the popularity of supporting infrastructure and hardware.

Because of the short signal wave length and poor wall penetration efficiency of 5G and 6G, the requirement for the number of base stations is much higher than that of 3G and 4G. According to relevant calculations, China needs about100000 base stations to reach the coverage of 4G signals. By the beginning of 20021,the number of 5G base stations in China had just exceeded 700,000, less than one tenth of the target number.

According to the Action Plan of 5G Application Sailing of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, by 2023, the penetration rate of 5G equipment in China will exceed 40% for individual users and 35% for large industrial enterprises, which is close to 100% compared with the penetration rate of 4G networks. Obviously, 5G and 6G networks that need new base stations and new equipment will not become the absolute mainstream for quite some time.

Third, 6G means high cost in both R&D and application, and it remains to be seen whether it can really bring about the expected revolutionary changes.

The development of communication technology is roughly ten years. The level of communication often makes a revolutionary breakthrough in odd generations, and then it is upgraded in even generations. If this law also applies to 5G and 6G, then the 6G era may not be as magical as people think. At the same time, the density of base stations and the number of low-orbit satellites necessary for 6G far exceed that of 5G, which requires the cooperation and communication of all countries to realize the interconnection of global networks.

The manufacturing cost alone makes the laying cost of 6G network astronomical. Take the cost of LEO satellites as an example. The cost of low Earth orbit satellites made in China is more than 4 million dollars. Looking at the world, the LEO satellite used in the satellite chain plan with the best cost control also costs 500 thousand dollars. The cost of sending tens of thousands of satellites into the sky is not easily borne by a company or even a country. If the overall cost of base station construction and personal terminals is included, the 6G coming in 2030 will probably be a small-scale experiment at most.

"Looking forward to 6G, there may not be 6 G." Xu Zhijun, executive director of Huawei, may be telling the truth.

The content of this article concerning listed companies is the author's personal analysis and judgment based on the information publicly disclosed by listed companies according to legal obligations (including but not limited to temporary announcements, periodic reports, official interactive platforms, etc.). ); The information or opinions in this article do not constitute any investment or other business advice, and market value observation is not responsible for any actions arising from the adoption of this article.

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