What is the law of flare occurrence and the alarm level of flare?

Flare forecast is a short-term forecast of the probability and intensity of flare in 1~3 days according to three levels: C and below, M and X. So let's take a look at the sky, understand the law of flare occurrence and how to define the warning level of flare.

The regularity of flare occurrence The frequency of flare occurrence shows a periodicity of about 1 1 year with the change of solar activity cycle, and the location of flare occurrence shows a butterfly distribution with time. In the most active year of solar activity, on average, flares above M magnitude will occur every day; However, in the year with the least solar activity, flares above M magnitude will not occur almost all year round.

In a solar cycle, there are about 10 X 10 flares, about 200 x flares and about 2000 m flares. ..

Flare prediction Flare prediction is a short-term prediction of the probability and intensity of flare in 1~3 days according to C and below, M and X levels. At present, the physical prediction model of solar flare has not been established, and most of them rely on the monitoring of sunspot-centered active areas and the statistics of historical related data.

Warning level (as shown in the above figure, note: unit of radiation flux: Watt /m2) The warning level of flare is usually characterized by the solar X-ray flux observed by geosynchronous orbit satellites, where the radiation flux refers to the radiation energy of solar X-rays of 0. 1 nm ~0.8 nm received in unit time and unit area, and the unit is Watt /m2. Different orders of solar X-ray flux indicate different orders of X-ray flares. When the flux is greater than 10-3 W/m 2, it is a strong flare and a red alarm is issued. If the radiation flux is greater than 10-4 W/m 2, it is a moderate flare and an orange warning is issued. The radiation flux is greater than 10-5 W/m2, which is a weak flare and gives a yellow alarm. Solar X-ray flare increases the electron density in the ionosphere on the sunny side of the earth, which affects short-wave radio communication and low-frequency navigation system. The higher the flare level, the more serious the impact on short-wave communication and low-frequency navigation system.

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