The origin of probability

The origin of probability/kloc-In the mid-7th century, Mailer, a gambling aristocrat, took pains to turn the dice again and again. When checking the results, he wrote them down in his notebook. Finally, he concluded that if a dice is thrown at least once (that is, many times) at 6 o'clock, it is beneficial to bet 1 time or more at 6 o'clock. According to his consideration, "throw 6", therefore, the expected probability of 6 points 1 time on the dice should be 1/6 ". Mele's above considerations are correct. "So, the probability of rolling the dice four times is four times, which is 4/6 or 2/3, so I shouldn't lose. "Indeed, he always wins with many people. Mele is more convinced that his consideration is correct. But his consideration is actually wrong. The correct probability is 0.5 177. Unfortunately, Mailer didn't realize his mistake and started a new gamble. He changed to throw two dice 24 times, including at least one bet on 12 points. According to his consideration, "throwing two dice 12 points is the multiplication of the points of two dice, and there are 6 × 6 = 36 possibilities. The expected probability that two dice give 6 should be 1/36 ". At this time, Mele's consideration is correct. Mailer has another consideration: "According to the above calculation, if the expected probability is 24 times, then the same reason as before should be 24/36 = 2/3". Mailer's consideration is wrong, because his previous success was that he was too confident in his own consideration. Even if he keeps losing, he insists that "there must always be a time to win." Because he kept gambling, he finally lost a penny. Because the correct probability now is 0.49 14…, it can be seen that Mailer's bankruptcy is a last resort. Later, Mailer asked his friend mathematician Pascal (1623 ~ 1662, French mathematician and physicist).