Analysis of the reasons for rising house prices from the market perspective

As far as the regional market is concerned, the rise of commodity housing prices may be affected by one or more factors. So what are these forces pushing up housing prices?

1, the transaction floor price of the homestead.

The relationship between floor price and house price of residential land transaction is the relationship between flour price and bread price. Generally speaking, the cost of land accounts for about 60% of the house price (the Blue Book of Real Estate released by China Academy of Social Sciences in 20 17 shows that the ratio of land price to house price reached 0.68 in 20 17). For example, the unit price of the floor taken by a homestead developer is 10000 yuan /m? Then the break-even price of commercial housing to be built later needs to be maintained at 16666 yuan /m? Above.

If the developer's land acquisition cost rises, the price of the new housing market in the future will be much higher in the plate where the plot is located and the surrounding radiation area. This can be clearly seen from the driving effect of the land king (especially the unit price king) on the surrounding housing prices. Let's take Daning Wang Di as an example.

2014,654381October 28th, the premium rate of Fangxing Real Estate was 1 1.5%. At the total price of 10 1 100 million yuan, the plot of 325 Daning Road Street in Zhabei District was purchased, and the floor price of the plot was 47,609 yuan/㎡. After the completion of this project, the case was named Jinning Jinmaofu. When I took the land, there was Mingyuan Forest City in the surrounding area, and the price was about 35,000 yuan /m? Left and right; After land acquisition, the average selling price of Daning plate in August 2065438+2004 was as high as 48000 yuan /m? ; Jinning Jinmao House enters the market for sale, and the surrounding house price will reach more than 60,000 yuan /m? .

Therefore, stabilizing housing prices, stabilizing land prices and stabilizing expectations are also comprehensive considerations. In order to cool the land market, in addition to the centralized land supply mechanism, there are also requirements for the premium rate of land plots and the selling price after the project is completed. In addition, dozens of key housing enterprises that have been included in the "three red lines" pilot project have been required by the regulatory authorities to purchase land at a ratio of no more than 40% of annual sales.

Under multiple constraints, housing enterprises tend to be rational in land acquisition, and land prices are also returning reasonably.

2. Supply and demand

According to the principle of economics, we all know that value determines price, and price is affected by the relationship between supply and demand.

Quite simply, when the supply of houses in the real estate market is in short supply, house prices will certainly rise. In recent years, with the rapid improvement of urbanization level and the steady progress of urban pension reform, the demand of real estate market is constantly released and the property market is booming. In addition, with the help of speculative forces such as investment speculation, house prices have been rising all the way, and the cost of home ownership has been rising.

In order to stabilize the housing price and return the house to the residential property, we should try to limit the purchase with the same right, the same sale, the same rent and the same purchase, crack down on real estate speculation, adjust the allocation of educational resources, and make the tone of not real estate speculation deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. Coupled with the promotion of the pilot project in real estate tax reform, the market's expectations for housing prices are becoming more and more stable. There are also many people who are more conservative about the trend of housing prices in the market outlook.

3. Currency issuance

Money supply is also a factor that affects house prices. In a loose monetary environment, M2 (broad money supply) is gradually increasing. If the economic aggregate does not increase synchronously, there may be some inflation in the market. In this environment, the purchasing power of money is facing a certain shrinkage, so the price increase is also expected.

In order to offset the negative impact of the epidemic, many countries have implemented relatively loose monetary policies in the past two years, which is also a major incentive for rising housing prices in many areas.

According to the survey data, as of June this year, global house prices rose by an average of 7.3% year-on-year, the biggest increase since the fourth quarter of 2006. Among them, Turkey's price increase ranked first, rising by 32%; Followed by Canada, house prices rose by 22. 1%. In addition, the price increase in the United States ranked fifth, rising by 13.2%, which was the biggest increase since February 2005.

4. Brand effect of leading enterprises

The land acquisition layout and project landing of large-scale housing enterprises have a pulling effect on housing prices in some small and medium-sized cities.

Compared with county-level and provincial-level regional developers, leading real estate enterprises are not poor in money on the one hand, and often accept higher premium rates when auctioning land; On the other hand, due to the development experience, strong capital chain, influential word-of-mouth effect and corresponding supporting services such as property, buyers are more likely to accept the projects of these large enterprises, even if their prices are higher than similar local projects.

After these large enterprises continue to flood in and dig deep into the layout, the housing prices in small and medium-sized cities are bound to bear the pressure of rising.

5. Delivery standards

This is easy to understand, that is, the delivery of new commercial housing is delivered to buyers according to rough or fine decoration.

At present, many places have clear requirements for the standard of delivery, so that developers can provide well-decorated houses for buyers. Intensive building materials, labor costs, etc. It will also spread to the house price. Under this requirement, it is also reasonable for regional market prices to rise.

6. Intermediary and transaction costs, etc.

The real estate market also needs to crack down on monopoly and other behaviors that undermine the order of the industry. If the intermediary in an oligopoly position has a stronger voice in the housing pricing and commission collection standards, then it is not excluded that bad intermediaries push up housing prices for their own interests. This phenomenon has actually been staged in the merger tide of intermediaries before.

Therefore, the housing management departments in Shanghai and other places have launched a new service of "hand in hand" intermediary for second-hand housing transactions, and the market is also promising. First, it can save the brokerage commission cost; The second is to introduce a new competition mechanism for the intermediary market, promote the service level of the industry, and at the same time make the housing transaction price return rationally.

7. Urban development planning and infrastructure construction are favorable.

Development plans that have obvious positive effects on urban industrial layout, introduction of new population, investment attraction, etc. will have a pulling effect on local housing prices. When the boots of free trade zone, Greater Bay Area and other concepts land, we can see that there will be a wave of price increase in the radiation area.

In addition, the construction and opening of rail transit, the planning and completion of urban parks (Disney, etc. ), the completion and commissioning of large commercial centers, etc. Will have a significant impact on the prices of new and second-hand houses.

Does the answer help you? If you are willing to adopt.