What do you think of the fourth quarter?

Fourth quarter research report

The whole year of 2020 will be affected by the global epidemic. The world economy is facing a large-scale recession,

What do you think of the fourth quarter?

Fourth quarter research report

The whole year of 2020 will be affected by the global epidemic. The world economy is facing a large-scale recession, financial risk accidents are frequent, global economic and financial market turmoil is intensified, and investment forms are more complicated. The difficulty of asset allocation will increase greatly in the fourth quarter.

It is estimated that the GDP growth rate will be around 6% in the third quarter and 7% in the fourth quarter. The annual growth rate is 3, and the median is 2.5-3.5.

There are three economic viewpoints at present.

The economy continues to show a V-shaped rebound. While considering the impact of foreign epidemics on the global economy, especially in the current global economic downturn, people have made various efforts in financial investment, industry and consumption. Economic recession. Domestic control is relatively perfect. From this perspective, the decline of MG economy may lead to global economic problems. This country will also be affected. However, due to the comprehensive reflection of domestic regulation, the economy rebounded rapidly. In this case, the country may be prominent.

Effective investment in China is recovering, and the pace will be further accelerated in the fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter, investment in fixed assets and infrastructure will become active. Real estate investment continued to maintain steady and rapid growth, and manufacturing investment continued to narrow by more than 2%. With the effective control of the epidemic, the daily consumption demand suppressed in the first half of the year will be further released, driving consumption to rebound sharply. The balance of payments maintained a "double surplus" pattern, and foreign exchange reserves continued to grow. Since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the current account surplus has shown rapid growth. With the expansion and opening up of China's financial market, the inflow of securities investment funds has accelerated, the direct investment has basically tended to be balanced, and the capital account has a small surplus. In the next few months, China's imports from the United States will obviously accelerate, and the trade surplus of goods will decrease, but the service trade will not change much, and the overall balance of payments will still show a double surplus pattern. Foreign exchange reserves may maintain a small growth trend in the future.

Second, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated within a certain range, and the momentum of continuous appreciation weakened. From the end of the third quarter to the fourth quarter, it is likely that it will no longer be the main driving factor for the weakening of the US dollar index, and the motivation for RMB appreciation against the US dollar will also increase accordingly. Weaken. This is reflected in the recent trend of RMB exchange rate. Before the end of the year, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar may fluctuate in both directions within the range of 6.6-6.9.

3. Fiscal policy is no longer overweight, and monetary policy tends to be stable. With the end of the issuance of special bonds by local governments this year, the scale of national fiscal expenditure may be temporarily reduced compared with the previous period, and the possibility of continuing to increase the positive fiscal policy in the fourth quarter is greatly reduced. The financial market remained stable and the tone of monetary policy remained unchanged. At present, the market liquidity is still in a moderately loose state, and the capital price fluctuates within a narrow range. It is unlikely that the monetary authorities will adjust the interest rates of MLF and LPR in the fourth quarter, and they do not have the conditions to release or withdraw a large amount of liquidity. At the end of this year or early next year, there may be a monetary policy adjustment window to control financial risks. We must make a transition from accelerating the pace of counter-cyclical adjustment to weekly adjustment and highlight the tone.

About A-share investment

At present, the macroeconomic and policy environment at home and abroad is complex and changeable, which leads to the increase of financial market uncertainty in the fourth quarter. Once all kinds of uncertainties are eliminated, this may be an important time window for allocating equity assets before the end of this year. The first batch of vaccines will be available at the end of this year. If the production situation is optimistic, then the epidemic will have an inflection point early next year. There is no doubt that China's macro economy will continue to improve. Economic data may rebound early next year. There will be a double surplus in the balance of payments, capital inflows will accelerate, and the RMB exchange rate will continue to bear the pressure of appreciation. It is unlikely that monetary policy will be substantially adjusted, and market liquidity will remain relatively abundant. There are indications that there may be an upward trend of stock asset prices at the end of this year or early next year, which needs to be paid great attention to. Fixed-income investment: it is recommended to properly allocate fixed-income trusts and gold trading products. The expected income of bank wealth management products is relatively low, which is suitable for investors who do not need high income level. At the same time, it is necessary to make arrangements as soon as possible to find excellent bond fund managers and obtain higher low-risk returns in the future, which depends more on the professional standardized bond management ability. It is suggested to invest in gold as a medium-and long-term asset allocation. Investors should pay full attention to the epidemic situation in Europe and America and other important events that affect the US dollar index and gold price, flexibly adjust their positions and control investment risks. If investors are interested in varieties that may have short-term supply gaps, such as soybeans and corn, it is suggested to look for short-term trend opportunities in the stock market.

From the environmental point of view, apart from the epidemic factors, there is likely to be a cold winter at the end of this year. According to tradition, you can borrow the Mother Earth Sutra. Di Mu Jing repeated sixty poems and divination, and also repeated himself. China's agricultural situation and natural disasters do have certain periodicity, which is of unique significance for preventing plagues and disasters. The language of the Mother Earth Sutra is easy to understand. It may not be a summary of natural laws by industrious people in ancient China, but it can also be regarded as an exploration of natural laws by ancient people in China. Among them, I am talking about the ballad of this mouse in the first year of 2020-202 1, which is highly deviated. In the third winter, it is more important to see the cemetery on the top of the mountain. In short, it is cold in winter. The modern term is La Nina phenomenon. The simple explanation is that the sea surface temperature east of the equator and the central Pacific Ocean is extremely cold (contrary to El Ni? o phenomenon), which is the interaction between tropical ocean and atmosphere. Products. According to the above logic, we can draw a conclusion that the concept of winter is great, so several things have happened. In addition to the current epidemic, the first disease must be alert to the flu. The prevalence of the second disease will inevitably reduce the impact of tourism, Internet economy, consumption and entertainment. Again, there is room for speculation. The third technology, military industry, is the pillar to maintain the vitality of the current stock market. Of course, the above is just speculation.

Summary and prospect

Before the US election, there may be limited room for market rebound. Although credit data and recent strong export growth make the market full of confidence in economic fundamentals, it is expected that the overall risk appetite of the market will remain low before the US election. The wait-and-see mood of incremental funds and the fund's cautious attitude towards the market make A-shares' feedback on fundamental improvement weak, and the overall market rebound is limited. The recent rise in popularity in Europe may trigger turmoil in the capital market. At the same time, due to the reduction of opinion polls, Trump's measures may aggravate the turmoil in the global capital market. Overseas epidemics and potential geopolitical events also continued in 10. Control the risk preference of capital and domestic capital developing northward. Although the average turnover of Arowana this Sunday was 65.438+0.025 billion yuan (about 65.438+3 billion US dollars), the IPO progress of Ant Financial has been delayed, otherwise the blood draw of large-scale IPO will weaken the market value. A few years. At present, other planned IPOs (such as CICC and JD.COM Digital) will still exert great pressure on market funds.