Does the "luck" that is often said in playing mahjong really exist?

There is no such thing as winning or losing, but it is actually just a question of probability. Juemin Xu and Nigel Harvey of the University of London studied the probability of gamblers winning or losing. They selected 776 people to make 565,965,438+05 bets on horse racing and gambling, and found that the winning side of the first bet was 48% in six consecutive bets. If you win the first time, the winner of the second bet is 49%. After winning the first two prizes, the winning area of the third bet reached 57%, and then it continued to rise, and the winning area of the fourth bet was 67%. If you don't stop, the odds of winning the fifth bet and the sixth bet are 72% and 75% respectively.

For losers, after losing money for the first time, the probability of winning the second bet drops to 47%, then to 45%, and then continues to drop below 45%. In other words, the winner is more likely to win the next bet, and the loser is more and more likely to continue betting and lose. Is mysterious luck playing magic?

The mystery has been solved. Juemin Xu and Nigel Harvey studied the different gambling strategies between horse racing and gambling. They also recorded the changes of each gambler's betting strategy in detail. It has been proved that lucky winners have a greater probability of winning in the future because they adopt more conservative betting methods, while unlucky losers will choose more aggressive betting methods.

Back to Abby's story, this time he caught a good deck of cards. When he hesitated whether to make a uniform or a fart beard, Abby looked at his wallet and found that a fart beard didn't help at all, so he tried to make a big name. Abby thinks I've lost so many times, so I must win once.