Questions about the purchase probability (buying lottery tickets)

If the winning probability of a lottery ticket is 1%, then every time you buy it, there is a winning probability of 1%. The winning probability will not accumulate because of how many times you buy it. (It doesn't mean that there is a 2% chance of buying it twice; If you buy it three times, you have a 3% chance. But if you buy it twice, there is a 200% probability, and if you buy it three times, there is a 300% probability. )

In addition, it is possible that you bought it for the first time, and it is only within the probability of 1%. It is also possible that you have bought 1000 times, and this probability of 1% cannot be reached.

If you buy it for a long time, the more times you buy it, the greater the probability of getting 1%. But in the final analysis, the winning probability of 1% is effective. In other words, you buy more times, such as one million times, one million times and one billion times. The more times, the closer the winning-losing ratio is to 1%.

Mathematically, infinity tends to 1%. If the winning probability of the lottery is 1%, then the more you buy, the more inclined the winning probability is to 1%.

You can search the coin toss experiment.

A coin has two sides. According to my previous theory, the probability of each side opening is 50%.

Someone did an experiment and recorded the times of coin throwing 1000, 5000, 10000, 50000 and 10000 respectively. The results are as follows. ...

The result is getting closer and closer to 50%

Of course, in a short period of time, one side is often opened continuously, but with the increase of the number of times, the number of times the two sides appear will eventually tend to be balanced.

(The coin toss experiment is not carried out in an ideal environment. Due to the change of the earth's gravity, the change of air resistance and the uneven quality of the coin (if you cut it from the middle of the coin, you will find that the weight of the front and back sides is different, and the weight of the protruding part of the coin surface is also different), the data is slightly biased, but the final data still tends to be 50%.

To sum up, if you only buy 100 times, it is difficult to win the prize absolutely because of the small number of purchases. Considering the mathematical probability, if you buy 10000 or more times, the total number of winning prizes is closer to 1%.

Buying is an opportunity, and if you don't buy, you won't have a chance. Buy in moderation.

The state runs welfare lottery, so don't indulge in it.