The true confession of a private trader: What kind of daily limit can be reused?

In the A-share market, many investors or private equity institutions specialize in short-term rapid arbitrage of daily limit stocks, forming a huge team of chasing daily limit stocks. In most cases, after the daily limit of individual stocks, there will be momentum of inertia the next day, which is deeply rooted in the public consciousness. Selling by taking advantage of the inertia of the next day's high profit is the direct reason why most people chase up the daily limit and participate in the operation of closing the daily limit. Moreover, there are also some particularly good stocks in the market that have many daily limit, which has profiteering effect, which is another reason to lure short-term funds to chase the daily limit.

Operating principle of the next day of daily limit

Through the analysis of the stocks with daily limit in the market in recent years, the average increase of the highest point on the next day of daily limit is 5.92%, and the average income calculated according to the closing price of the next day is 2.86%. Short-term intervention in the daily limit stocks, the average income of the next day is much higher than other stocks. Therefore, it is particularly necessary to study the trend of daily limit stocks on the second day.

(1) If the stock continues its daily limit the next day, you don't have to rush to sell it, but you should pay attention to the number of purchases on it. Once buying decreases rapidly, it is possible to open the daily limit. At this time, it is necessary to sell it immediately and take profits. If you trade until the close, you don't have to throw it, and continue to observe the trend on the third day.

(2) Open higher and walk higher the next day, and pay close attention to the disk changes. Once the same upward trend is weak, such as the stock price falling 1 point, sell it immediately.

(3) The next day, keep an eye on the disk. Once a weak rebound occurs, it will be sold immediately.

(4) If you open higher and go lower the next day (the increase exceeds 3%), you should sell it immediately and make a single order at a price lower than the purchase price. According to the principle of priority (the declaration with low commission price takes precedence over the declaration with high commission price), the transaction can be made quickly, and the transaction price is generally higher than the declared price. If in the process of daily limit on the first day, a large order quickly makes the stock price rise by more than 3%, it is lower than the price 1%.

The above prices are for sale. Doing so can not only ensure the transaction, but also ensure the maximum profit.

(5) Open low and walk high the next day, and keep an eye on the disk. Once the rally is weak, it will be sold immediately.

(6) If the second balance drops rapidly after opening, it will choose a high point to sell when it rebounds.

(7) Open low and go low the next day, and choose a rebound high to sell immediately.

(8) Within 5 minutes of the opening of the next day, the stock price falls back to the closing price of the day before the daily limit, regardless of profit or loss. Referring to the time-sharing K-line system, once MACD of 15 minutes or 30 minutes appears, it will be out immediately.

(9) When the market trend is not good the next day, quit first and wait and see.

(10) On the second day, the trading volume was greatly enlarged, and the stock price rose slightly or did not rise, indicating that the volume and price were unbalanced and should be out on rallies.

How to quickly grasp the daily limit stocks? What kind of stock is easy to limit?

The daily limit of the stock price should be coordinated with the volume. If there are more than three figures in the intraday trading volume, you can chase up immediately. However, it should also be noted that investors need to pay attention to whether the pending orders bought in the day will be removed immediately, or whether there are chips to buy a price support when they are pulled up quickly. In the process of impacting the daily limit, some stocks often appear to support or withdraw orders, which is very suspicious.

In terms of volume, when there is no pull-up action, the volume will be very mild, especially in the process of sideways, the volume will shrink in a stepped way, which is very orderly and not messy at all.

Compare the following two pictures and you will know the difference.

Figure 4-40, rainbow shares (600707): This is the trend chart of the stock on July 3, 2065438. In the time-sharing trend, the volume increases rapidly when the stock price goes up, and shrinks in an orderly manner when the stock price falls back, and the volume and price change in an orderly and well-coordinated manner. Shrinking immediately after sealing, indicating that the dealer has a good control over the handle.

Figure 4-4 1, Tunhe (600737): This is the trend chart of the stock on August 20th15, 17. In the process of pulling up, the stock price and trading volume have no rhythm, the upside pattern is not obvious, the volume and price are unbalanced, the disk is messy, and the daily limit is very reluctant. After the daily limit, the closing price was incomplete, and the selling pressure was relatively high. The daily limit was opened at the end of the day, and there was no obvious fluctuation in the market that day. Therefore, this trend is suspected to be dominated by pulling boats.

Of course, after the daily limit of individual stocks, the trading volume of the day should not be too large, especially the stocks with huge daily limit, so we should participate cautiously. You can simply calculate the trading volume half an hour after the opening of the day. Whether it is huge or not, it should be compared with the heavy volume of the stock for a period of time.

There are usually two situations in the huge daily limit of individual stocks: one is at a high level of sharp rise; The other is the rebound in the process of falling. These two trends belong to the main knocking behavior, and it is not appropriate to pursue high operation.

Figure 4-42, Guan Hao Gaoxin (600433); From June 5, 2005 to June 5, 2065438, the stock showed a sharp daily limit at a high level, and the turnover rate on that day was close to 8%, which was in sharp contrast with the low turnover rate in the previous period and obviously belonged to an abnormal volume. It is not difficult to see from the volume that there is a suspicion of the main hoarding of goods, so it is better not to chase such daily limit stocks.

Figure 4-43 Tianrun Dairy (6004 19): This is a violent daily limit phenomenon during the rebound. The stock price peaked and then fell back. 2065438+On July 9, 2005, it opened with a daily limit, and then fluctuated higher. At the end of the day, it closed at the daily limit, fluctuating 20% throughout the day, and the turnover rate was 26.75%. The transaction volume of this day is very suspicious, which is more than three times that of the previous day. It is suspected that the dealer is shipping in the opposite direction, and it should not chase up in the short term, but it is a good opportunity to leave. The next day, it released a huge amount again, but the stock price failed to limit. At this time, it can be determined that it is the main lightening shipment. Retail investors who have not left the market should decisively clear their positions and wait and see.

In the firm offer, there are three kinds of huge daily limit phenomena that can be used as exceptions: one is that there are several consecutive one-word daily limit in front, and the huge daily limit that appears after the daily limit is opened may fluctuate and rise later. Of course, it is best not to catch up in the short term, such as Jiangnan Jiajie (60 1 313) in February. The other is the huge daily limit due to the intervention of banker's funds after the stock price plummets or plummets, and there is still some rising potential in the market outlook, such as Lei Ming Ke Hua (600985) February 27, 2065438+2007. On the other hand, there will also be a large number of stocks that have just been given ex-dividend rights (such as 10 turn 10 turn 20), but the nature is different from the above two situations, such as 20 15, Yongda Group (002622).

In the firm offer, it depends on specific issues whether the daily limit of heavy volume is good or the daily limit of heavy volume is good. The shrinkage daily limit sometimes indicates that the market selling pressure is light, or the banker has highly controlled the market and is more likely to pull up.

Sometimes investors are optimistic about the market outlook and reluctant to sell, which often leads to a continuous daily limit.

Regarding the trading volume on the day of the daily limit, the key in the firm offer depends on the following three points:

(1) The amount before and after the daily limit is greater than 3: 1, and the smaller the amount after the daily limit, the better.

(2) The bigger the seal, the better, preferably more than 5 digits (depending on the size of the share capital).

(3) No matter whether it's a shrinking daily limit or a heavy daily limit, it's a good variety that there is no big sale after the daily limit.

If it is a big bull stock that has been heavily hyped, once it enters the downtrend channel, it will stay away from the densely populated area above and the cost-intensive area below. At this time, the shrinkage daily limit is mostly the relay form of shipment, and most of them will open lower and go lower the next day.

The daily limit of heavy volume, especially the small head in the early stage, on the one hand shows that the banker is determined to do more and will not hesitate to liberate all the locks, indicating that he is ambitious; On the other hand, it also shows the banker's strong financial strength. As long as the daily limit of heavy volume is far away from the cost-intensive areas of bookmakers, the market will often rise sharply.

The daily limit trend appears when the transaction intensive area is broken and the head pumping (dish washing and test support) is confirmed in the early stage, and the transaction volume will inevitably shrink. In particular, the shrinkage after the new high shows that there is no selling pressure for full profit, and the bookmakers have highly controlled the market.

Timing of shrinkage daily limit and volume daily limit

An important indicator to determine whether a stock can continue its daily limit after the daily limit is the trading volume of the daily limit trend. Generally speaking, the traditional shrinking daily limit indicates that the market chips are well locked and the market outlook may continue to fall; Heavy trading is a sign of loose chips. The greater the trading volume, the greater the probability of a decline in the market outlook. Nowadays, as two different ways of daily limit, shrinkage limit and volume limit appear more and more frequently on the daily limit of the stock market, and their market significance can no longer be simply defined as shrinkage increase and volume decrease. How can we really seize the investment opportunities brought about by shrinkage and volume restrictions in the new period?

1. shrinkage limit principle

After a wave of stock price decline, with the continuous decline of stock price, the short-selling energy gradually decreased, which slowed down the decline of stock price and gradually entered the bottoming stage. In the process of bottoming, most stocks will fluctuate sideways, but the fluctuation range is generally not very large. With the constant fluctuation of stock price, the K-line chart will show a sideways trend at the bottom, and all the moving average systems will show a phenomenon of almost sticking together. After a period of sideways volatility, the stock price suddenly showed a daily limit one day, and the daily limit was not opened all day. During the daily limit, transactions are very rare, showing a trend of daily limit shrinkage (Figure 6-4).

2. Market characteristics of shrinkage daily limit

(1) The stock price has obviously entered the main rising wave and been sorted out. All EMA systems are obviously bullish.

(2) The main force has completely controlled the market, otherwise it would not be so bold, but it is a matter of time before shipment.

(3) When it is just pulled up, the transaction volume is enlarged; When it is pulled to a certain height, the turnover will gradually shrink.

(4) At the daily limit of such stocks, if the closing volume is large, there is still room. Once the closing volume is small, avoid it.

(5) Once this stock changes from a shrinking daily limit to an incremental daily limit, it means that the stock will quickly peak.

(6) The U-turn of the 3-day moving average is the delivery signal.

Before the daily limit of shrinkage occurs, the stock price must have a process of sideways bottoming or shocking bottoming. If there is such a trend of shrinking daily limit after the main washing, then before this, the stock price will show signs of stopping falling and will close the Xiaoyang line that continues to rise. In the process of washing dishes, the overall turnover shows the characteristics of shrinking. Investors can adopt the following three operating methods when facing the situation of shrinking daily limit.

(1) When the stock price starts trading in the bottom area, the trading volume of the whole day has never been enlarged, so you can queue up to buy it half an hour before the market closes.

(2) If it is a strong main stock, it is often difficult to queue up for the first day's closing price. In this case, investors can buy directly at the opening of the next day.

(3) After some stocks show this trend, there will be a retracement process in the middle of the rise, but when the stock price retraces to the vicinity of the 5-day moving average, it will be supported and rebound, which is also a good buying opportunity.

3, the volume limit principle

Most of the stocks with daily limit trend are strong main stocks, or the main force of the stock has reached a high degree of control. After the opening, the main force has been controlling the stock price to fluctuate within a small range, or allowing retail investors to buy and sell freely there. Only when the stock price reaches a critical point will the main force intervene. Due to the height control of the main force, resulting in

The stock price has been relatively depressed at this stage, even though the market has risen obviously at this time, the stock is still in this unremarkable trend. When everyone lost confidence in the stock, the main force suddenly rose sharply in the late session, and quickly pulled up the stock price, making it too late for investors to react.

There is always a reason for heavy volume. In the high-priced area, some main players often knock on the volume, often sell big orders at some price points, and then eat them to show their courage and attract market follow-up funds; Or put a lot of purchases at some key points to show their determination to protect the market. These phenomena are all illusions, and the real price center of gravity can be distinguished. If there is a low turnover, it means that the institution is changing villages or preparing to pull up a wave of market, which can be promoted in due course.

There is a trend of daily limit in late trading, which is generally done by the main force, which is also a common method used by the main force in the pull-up stage. Of course, it is not excluded that the main force will use this way to pull the quotation to lure investors into the market during the shipment process. Therefore, when investors encounter stocks with this trend, they must see clearly where the stock price is.

If this trend appears in the bottom area where the stock price has just started, or in the middle of the stock price rise, it means that the main force has begun to enter the pull-up stage, and the stock price in the market will continue to climb upwards. Faced with the daily limit of heavy volume, investors can adopt the following two strategies.

(1) When investors encounter a stock with this trend, they should immediately open the daily K-line chart of the stock for analysis and see where the stock price is at this time. If the stock price is located in the high-level area of long-term rise, then investors had better not touch it, because it is likely to be a trap deliberately set by the main force to prepare for shipment.

(2) If this trend appears shortly after the stock price starts, or in the process of stock price rising, then investors can buy at the moment when the stock price falls, or chase after the stock price continues to strengthen after the opening of the next day.

Is it better to have a daily trading limit or a daily trading limit? If the daily limit is reduced, it sometimes means that the market selling pressure is light or the main force of the controlled market is easy to rise. Sometimes, investors are optimistic about the market outlook and reluctant to sell, which often leads to a continuous daily limit. However, if it is a bull stock that has been heavily hyped, once it enters the downtrend channel, the upper part is far away from the dense area and the lower part is far away from the main cost-intensive area. Shortening is mostly a relay form of shipment. The next day, most of them opened lower and walked lower.

The daily limit of heavy volume, especially the small head in the early stage, on the one hand shows that the main force is determined to do more and will not hesitate to liberate all of them to prove its ambition; On the other hand, it also shows the strong capital and strength of the main force. As long as you stay away from the main cost-intensive areas, the daily limit of heavy volume will often form a big market.

Whether it's a shrinkage daily limit or a volume daily limit, there is no big selling order after the daily limit, which is a good variety. Only when we break through the transaction intensive area and confirm the withdrawal of the first order in the early stage, we must ask for reduction. In particular, the shrinkage after the new high shows that there is no selling pressure in the whole market, and what cannot be washed away is the main chip, which is the main stock with high control. It's hard to imagine how high a stock has never risen.

Finally, the daily limit is the best and fastest way to make a profit in a day, and because of the high income, it also means that there will be higher risks, and you may be caught if you don't pay attention to it in the firm operation.

Faced with the same trend, even after learning the same trading technology, they will still make different trading decisions, which is generally considered to be the different thinking logic behind each trader.

Different understanding of law and essence determines that traders' trading logic is different. When their eyes move with the K-line chart, some people see the breakthrough of falling, while others see the relay of rising. Some people still don't seem to break through the important key points, but they are still chaotic. Different viewpoints show different logical ways. Why are trading methods difficult to copy? Probably because everyone's logical path of thinking is difficult to copy.

People's thinking has never been scientific, so trading is not scientific. Therefore, when every trader hopes to solve the above problems in a scientific way, the result will definitely be to seek fish from the edge of the wood. Although it is not a science, smart traders still choose a more reliable method to describe the boundary of the market ups and downs-probability theory.

The reason why it is vague is that mathematical probability can't measure the changes of market sentiment and trading mentality. A person may be rational 80% of the time, but the rest of the time may be irrational, or depressed or excited, which are the sources of emotional transactions.

The common mistake in the market is that traders subjectively increase their good feelings and bad feelings in the K-line trend that should be objective. The market itself is not good or bad, only suitable and unsuitable. All the results are reincarnation. Those who break through the decline are right, and those who relay the rise are definitely wrong. It depends on whether you can recognize your mistakes and adjust your trading direction in time.

In fact, for most people in the speculative market, survival is the most important problem to be solved, and then whether they can make money and how much they can make. The gap between ideal and reality is not obvious enough, but it is often selectively forgotten by most traders, which is the most cruel aspect.

For many people, it is not unacceptable to lose a little money because of "financial management". The problem is that many people simply don't understand the logic of trading. Many people do not believe that divination can predict the future, but believe that it can predict the rise and fall of the market. This is a typical trading fallacy, or because they don't want to lose money, they are in a hurry to see a doctor. The more afraid they are, the more they will pay attention to something. Too much attention is always self-defeating. So the trading mentality is always self-defeating. Compared with many traders who don't know how to make money, it is another misunderstanding that slightly better traders want to meet one or two big markets every day and get rich overnight.

What is the logic of trading?

Profit and loss are the same!

Everything is a set of contradictions, which is the simplest philosophy. Because everything has two sides, the market trend shows obvious uncertainty. Because of uncertainty, every transaction is the same source of profit and loss, so the key of a trading system lies in whether it can capture every front of a coin in uncertainty.

For example, grasping the big and letting the small go is what this means. When you want to grasp all markets, you often can't grasp all markets. No loss equals gain. Of course, what you earn is not money, but the opportunity to make money next time.

Line chart is the accumulation of people's psychological state, capital state and so on when trading this commodity. But there are prices, volume, K-line and various pointers, and among these information, there are only two things that determine your actions ... buying and selling.

The right side of the line chart is the most charming; The left side of the line chart is the clearest. The conditions of stocks that will rise are all the same, but stocks with the same conditions may not necessarily rise. It takes a little strength to look at pictures between buying and selling, and a little luck between buying and selling.

Some people say that if every wave is done right, what fun is there in stock trading? What a strange sentence, isn't it that you want to do every wave in the right direction when operating stocks? Isn't it a turning point in the pursuit of buying low and selling high? What's wrong with catching every wave? Isn't this a great pleasure in life?

In fact, if you think about it, there is nothing wrong with this sentence. Because we are human beings, not gods, we can't do everything right. Nine times out of ten, it's good to hit it! If you can get all the waves right, including the dots, you will already be a super rich man, and the stock market is really nothing interesting. Because it's all in your hand, what are you playing?

Look right, be happy, look wrong, review. Between right and wrong, how to earn more when it is right, earn less when it is wrong, and earn more when it is settled at the end of the year, yes. If you can make a profit every year, isn't it?

It's a good thing to let those who make money go and those who are empty-handed have a chance to buy, not a bad thing. Isn't everyone happy? Isn't it normal to measure the neckline too high? Are you ready to accept it? The acceptance point hasn't arrived yet. Please wait patiently. It's time to wait patiently.

Winners are people who can earn and keep. A wave of rise will create many winners, but a 500-point retreat will turn many winners into losers. What is the difference? The real winner knows how to run, and the fake winner will only enjoy the profits on the paper, just be happy.

Give way to the bottom, give way to the head and eat more in the middle. That's what surgery is all about. Do stocks: first, the tools should be simple; Second, the idea should be simple.

If you are a player who has one's fingers itch every day without making one or two transactions, and the trading goal is fast forward and fast out, in my opinion, this is not a short-term transaction, but a suicide transaction.

In fact, short-term has always been a weapon for small funds to accumulate capital quickly. It is difficult for large funds to do short-term, usually doing trend trading. Why? We must understand that tens of thousands and hundreds of thousands are nothing to the liquidity of the market. As a trader of small funds, it is very easy to get in and out in the short term. This is the so-called ship turning around. What about the large sum of money? It is very likely that a random purchase is an earthquake for the market. Once there is a large number of selling, it is easy to blow up the market liquidity, and there is no connection disk. This makes it difficult for the ship to turn around.

The advantage of large funds is that as long as you earn 10%-20%, you will earn a lot of money for your whole market. If it can be multiplied several times a year, it may squeeze the market dry. What about small funds? Even if you multiply it by 100 times and 1000 times, it is still Mao Mao rain for the market. The liquidity of the market is limited, so it is doomed that the greater the capital, the slower the growth rate, but every growth is profiteering. Every growth of large funds is equivalent to drawing a lot of blood from the market at one time, and the market will die after several more visits. How much money can you withdraw? The market doesn't scare you at all.

The advantage of small funds is flexibility. Don't underestimate this flexibility. Flexibility means that as long as you strictly abide by the stop-loss discipline, you will be in trouble for eight generations, and it is difficult for you to let the market hit you hard (except systemic risks). However, in this year's A-share market, look at the faces of fund managers. What about their money? You want to stop loss, the catcher is not enough for you to plug your teeth.