How to refute the fallacy of fortune tellers

I have seen some fortune tellers think that they can be explained in any way, and then there are cliches. For example, whoever says "you are really good to others, but others are not good to you, and you are easy to lose" is right.

In addition, it is not magical to count people's age, professional income and number of children. Because they will observe and judge. For example, the forensic doctor can know your age just by looking at your teeth, because he knows how to convert the wear rate.

In other words, fortune tellers do have some scientific methods to look at the number of children by age and professional income (but these should not be spread abroad), and then use these to gain trust. I once did an experiment. In the early days, no one knew the birth and residence of the ID card holder and the relationship between men and women, so I used this to fool a person around me.

Another probability analysis, such as judging that a man and a woman in life have a 50% correct rate of everything they say, and then according to some medical knowledge and probability analysis, the correct rate can be increased by 20% (if more girls have said that they will have sons in the future), then the accuracy rate is 70% green! !

Another selective judgment. It is amazing that people who believe are always based on correct calculations and ignore incorrect calculations. As for him, if he only records the wrong calculation, then he feels useless!

Let's say the example I came across. A relative has two children and the boss is seriously ill.

There is something wrong with the second child-all children do. The fortune teller said that the second child was sick and the boss was fine. The relative also said that his calculation was correct.

Go to fortune telling with a colleague, who is dressed in fashion and has no calluses on his hands. You don't need a fortune teller to see that he is not a farmer! ! ! I don't farm there, but I only have one job. The fortune teller who runs the manufacturing industry insists that this is his job. In fact, he is an electrical repairman. Then say that he has been arguing with his tongue recently! This is not surprising, because there is no argument between people.