Solving Fate Problem with Probabilistic Thinking

Many people may believe in fate? I believe that fortune telling feels like destiny takes a hand, but have you ever thought that once destiny takes a hand, you can't change it?

Let's look at an example. For example, if you want to have a wedding, there are two possibilities. One may be in a hotel, and the other is an outdoor wedding.

1. The hotel is beautifully decorated and stable, with an excellent score of 80 points.

2. Outdoor wedding flowers and wine have a good environment, and the score is 100.

But there is still an uncertain factor, that is, it may rain. If it rains, the outdoor wedding may get 0 points.

As for you, how do you choose?

For example, the probability of rain is 25%. We can calculate it like this. 100 ×75+0 ×25=75%.

From the perspective of probability theory, it is still necessary to choose the hotel as a safer way.

Therefore, the truly safe masters are all good at using the method of calculating probability. The calculation and understanding of probability is simple, but it is not easy to do.

Among them, Buffett also said that the mathematical knowledge I used in my study is very simple, even elementary school students such as addition, subtraction, multiplication and division can count.

However, people with probabilistic thinking are not simple. Many people may need to go through the fog of numbers to see the truth.

I remember a few years ago, someone invented a formula to calculate red wine. Through the final calculation formulas of precipitation probability, sunshine, air and personnel care, the calculated results are even more accurate than those of top experts. This tells us that once we have a mathematical model and probabilistic thinking, we can easily defeat those top human experts.

Let's take a look at another story of Google co-founder Brin. I remember that he detected a gene at that time, and the probability that this gene triggered his Parkinson's disease was 50%.

He did several things to eliminate the influence of this matter on him.

First, he announced the possibility that he had this gene.

Then he proposed to invest 50 million yuan to sponsor research on related diseases.

At the same time, use the law of large numbers to find something that can resist Parkinson's disease.

Let's analyze, the probability of his illness is 50%. If we popularize some new findings, the probability of curing this disease may be reduced by half, that is, 25%. Then the study also found that exercise can reduce the probability of Parkinson's disease by 25%. So he took part in diving. Because diving can increase the heart rate. At the same time, some studies, such as coffee and tea, can also reduce the probability of Parkinson's disease. Through this series of combination boxing, the incidence of Parkinson's disease can be reduced to less than 10%.

Although we can't completely eliminate the effects of diseases, we can see that by reducing the probability of these events, we can make one thing affect ourselves.

These joint strategies of his can really be regarded as a classic event against the textbook version of probability.

There are many fateful things in life that cannot be changed. We can't fight against birth and death, and there are some fatalistic things. But we can influence the probability of this happening through our efforts, and maybe it won't happen.

I hope today's sharing will inspire you.