Middle class standard (how many assets belong to the middle class)

Middle class is a fashionable term in China.

But who is the middle class?

By definition, they are a group. Most of them are engaged in mental labor or manual labor with technical foundation. They make a living mainly by wages and salaries. Generally, they have good academic qualifications, professional knowledge, strong professional ability and corresponding family consumption ability.

At first glance, it seems that urban white-collar workers can call themselves middle class. Of course, we should not just look at the "vague concept", but draw a line, the line of the middle class.

The 20 19 white paper on the new middle class shows that in first-tier cities, the median household assets of the new middle class are 4.83 million yuan, the liabilities are1120,000 yuan, and the net assets are 37 10/0,000 yuan. In addition to the median data, its average assets are 6.25 million yuan, and the average house price (a suite) is 5.32 million yuan.

New first-tier and second-tier cities: the median asset is 3.45 million, and the average house price (one suite) is 6.5438+0.63 million.

Third-and fourth-tier cities: the median asset is 2.73 million, and the average real estate price (one suite) is 820,000.

It is necessary to explain the financial formula here:

Assets = liabilities+net assets

In this regard, we have a clear outline of the middle class. There is a suite in their city, and both husband and wife have decent and well-paid jobs. Of course, many middle-class people have to bear great repayment pressure every month because they buy houses with loans.

The wealth structure of typical new middle class families;

Property: 56%

Savings: 17%

Stocks, funds and P2P: 14%

Company equity: 7%

Unpopular assets: 6%

In addition, the consumption view of the middle class is also very interesting.

Children, self-improvement in study and travel rank among the top three in the consumption growth of the new middle class, which may be related to the fact that most of them are engaged in mental work and are generally well educated.

Second, richer people.

After reading the middle class, I think we can look up at one more class and see the difference between "rich people" and financial freedom.

Hurun mentioned the threshold of financial freedom in "20 18 China millionaire brand tendency report". (The view of high net worth people)

First-tier cities: 65.438+0.3 billion

Second-tier cities: 80 million

Third-tier cities: 60 million

In truly wealthy families, entrepreneurs account for the majority, with 60% assets exceeding 10 million and 80% assets exceeding 100 million.

In addition to having more money, the professional composition of financial freedom groups is very different from that of the middle class.

Behind the different occupations is the huge difference in asset composition. Rich people like to invest in equity, and quickly become bigger and stronger enterprises through mergers and acquisitions and holding.

Third, the problem of middle class assets.

The core asset of financial freedom groups is equity, and they invest in or control enterprises. The asset core of the middle class is real estate, but it is not a sound investment.

From 20 13 to 20 19, the average annual growth rate of personal mortgage balance reached 26%, of which the first home loan increased by 15.8% and multiple home loans increased by 32%. From 20 17 to 20 18, the proportion of multi-family housing loans increased from 62.9% to 65.9%. More crucially, 47. 1% of the existing mortgages are vacant. To put it simply, many landlords with multiple houses can't live in a house after buying it.

Nowadays, among the loans issued by banks, mortgage has become the absolute mainstream.

The central bank also calculated the "leverage ratio of residents" in various provinces and cities with the algorithm of "the proportion of residents' loans to GDP". Since the current household loan is mainly mortgage, we can regard it as "the leverage ratio of the property market".

At present, the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) is 4.80%.

It doesn't seem high, but the pressure is not small, because the stage of ultra-high-speed economic growth is far away. 20 19 1-3 quarter increased by 6.20%!

Industry profits are declining, and it is not easy for companies to make money.

Usually, we use GDP growth rate to measure the speed of wealth creation and M2 money growth rate to indicate the speed of money expansion. The data shows that from 1995 to 20 18, the average annual growth rate of money M2 is 16. 14%, and the average annual growth rate of GDP is 8.87%.

Among the 25 major industries, only the banking industry outperformed the growth rate of M2 with a profit rate of 35.88%, and only the public utilities, food and beverage, media, non-bank finance, real estate, medical biology and computers exceeded the average annual growth rate of GDP, and the profit rates of other 17 industries were all below 8.87%.

Fourth, the wage dilemma of the middle class.

Low industry profits will inevitably lead to weak wage increases. If the company's profit is less than 8.87%, it is impossible to give all employees a salary increase of 10% or even 5%, which is very difficult.

Don't forget, our loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) is 4.80%, while mortgage interest rates are concentrated in 5%-6% everywhere. Most people may face the situation that the wage growth rate can't outrun the mortgage interest rate.

The previous "20 19 White Paper on New Middle Class" showed that the median assets of new middle class families were 4.83 million yuan, and the liabilities were1120,000 yuan.

Suppose a family mortgage is 1 1.2 million yuan, then the annual interest probability is greater than 5.48%, which is 54,800 yuan. This situation is more common in first-and second-tier cities, especially for the new middle class.

At present, 75% of families in China have an annual income of less than 44,500 yuan, which means they can't afford the mortgage interest of1120,000 yuan. 65,438+05% of the families have an annual income of 440,000 500 yuan to 654,380+million yuan, and they can only make every effort to bear the monthly payment of 59,444,438+04 yuan (30 years).

If the monthly salary of both husband and wife is above 1 10,000 yuan, and the family income is above 200,000 yuan, it is already an absolute "head-headed" family, because only 5% of the families have an annual income above172,000 yuan. They can normally afford a mortgage of1120,000.

Verb (abbreviation for verb) low-income future

I found an interesting phenomenon that the middle class with millions of assets is often worried.

Needless to say, work pressure is also very stressful. If you don't get a raise within three years, you will feel very dangerous and your company will go bankrupt. If you don't get promoted within five years, you will feel that something big is not good and you are at risk of being laid off. I didn't buy a house, but I was on pins and needles when I saw the price rise. After buying a house, the monthly payment overwhelmed me.

165438+1On October 28th, Pan Shiyi, chairman of SOHO China, said that China was embarrassed to say that the rental yield was low. At present, SOHO's strategy is to attract people with low rent, and then slowly raise the rent to a reasonable level.

Some time ago, an organization made statistics on the rental return rate of big cities in China, showing that the rental return rate of first-tier cities is only 1.7%, while that of second-tier cities is only 2.4%. The renter's perspective is that the rent-to-income ratio is rising rapidly. The data shows that the rental income ratio of renting a one-bedroom apartment in Beijing is as high as 89.5%, which means that renting a one-bedroom apartment in Beijing costs an average of 90% of the income of young people.

At the first Chief Actuary Forum of 1 1 held in June, Jia Biao, deputy director of the life insurance supervision department of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said, "At present, all insurance companies whose statutory liability reserve coverage is less than 120% will stop selling life annuity products with a predetermined interest rate of 4.025%."

Now many insurance companies have stopped selling life annuity products with a predetermined interest rate of 4.025%, because the risk control department has seen the downward trend of interest rates in the future.

Through these financial events, we can see an obvious fact.

Now the interest rate borne by the middle class to buy a house (above 4.80%) will be high in the foreseeable future!

It is difficult for the future wage increase to be higher than the GDP growth rate or even lower than the mortgage interest rate.

Except for the first-and second-tier cities where the population continues to flow in, it is difficult for housing prices in other cities to increase much.

In fact, the middle class is the head of the working class, but because it has not entered the stage of asset income, there is still a great risk of slipping to the next class, and the standard of the middle class will rise several grades every few years.

In the near future, the standard line of middle-class families may exceed100000.