Revealing the "Money Shortage" in the Late Qing Dynasty: Yuan Shikai's Series of Tactics to Save the Market

Capitalism with the characteristics of the Qing Dynasty may be the worst capitalism in the world. When the "market" without rules fails and the "mayor" without rules is absent, a "money shortage" surges, the dam of credit collapses completely, and the liquidity bubbles burst one after another. How should Yuan Shikai, who has just become the leader of Xinjiang ministers, respond?

A large-scale "money shortage" swept through Beijing and Tianjin.

Due to the serious shortage of money supply, the main currency in Beijing and Tianjin is the so-called "money bill"-a bill issued by banks at will without reserve; As for tokens, bamboo chips, tin foil and paper strips are widely used in cosmetics.

The market is chaotic, "business travelers smell it and bind their feet, and everything smells it and rushes." Investigate its extreme flow direction, stop delivery of foreign goods, and unreasonable exchange of ticket numbers. "

1902, 43-year-old Yuan Shikai became the governor of Zhili and minister of Beiyang, and became the "leader of Xinjiang ministers" after Li Hongzhang. He soon discovered that the primary enemy he had to face was not the Boxer with sabre and broadsword or Eight-Nation Alliance with musket, but the "money shortage".

The deformed "hand", namely "money shortage", was directly caused by the Boxer Movement in Eight-Nation Alliance.

In this turmoil, the Boxer Rebellion, the * * * Army, Eight-Nation Alliance and other armed groups carried out a seesaw massacre, destruction and looting in Beijing and Tianjin. After the war, Eight-Nation Alliance alone snatched more than 654.38 million yuan in cash. To add fuel to the fire, foreign banks and Shanxi banks with relatively strong strength recovered about 20 million Liang of loans and stopped issuing them in order to protect themselves in the turmoil.

In addition to turmoil, foreign trade "out of surplus" is also an important reason.

Since the opening of 186 1 Tianjin, after more than 20 years of slow development, the foreign trade in Zhili finally began to accelerate at the end of 19, with a five-fold increase compared with 1899. 1900~ 190 1 year, although fierce turmoil broke out and the trade volume declined, it quickly recovered after the war. At the same time, in 190 1 year, the Russian trans-siberian railway was completed and opened to traffic, and the Eurasian railway network was integrated. On the one hand, Tianjin quickly got rid of the vassal status of Shanghai Port and became an important port in Northeast Asia. However, the industrial structure of China, especially in North China, has not changed, and the continuous expansion of trade scale has aggravated the "export surplus" of foreign trade. Since then, the average annual outflow of silver from Tianjin Port has ranged from 4 million taels to 8 million taels, and even reached tens of millions taels in some years.

In his report to the Central Committee, Yuan Shikai said bitterly: "Tianjin is a trading port, running from north to south, instilling in and out of the field. Although trade is prosperous, it is not an area where money is accumulated. It is invisible, and sooner or later it hides emptiness. " In his first year in charge of Zhili (1902), "China's import value was 80 18 1683, while the export value was only 17839063."

With money so tight and political uncertainty, the "invisible hand" of the market finally worked. However, in this deformed situation, the hand of the market is also deformed-"silver money posts" are flooding.

The so-called "money stickers" are similar to today's "promissory notes" and are generally issued by banks. Among them, those who mainly make money are called "money posts" and those who mainly make silver are called "silver posts". The distribution of "Silver Money Stickers" began as early as the Song Dynasty. The primary purpose is, of course, to facilitate circulation, solve the problem of inconvenient carrying of metal money such as silver and money, and play the role of "quasi-currency" when the supply of metal money is insufficient.

The proliferation of "silver money posts" is the tip of the iceberg of the chaotic financial and monetary system of the Qing Dynasty. At that time, the monetary system implemented the parallel standard of silver and money, with silver for large numbers and money for decimal numbers. The so-called silver, as well as silver and silver dollar. Relatively speaking, the traditional silver is more chaotic, and its shape, color and key size are very different, like a maze; Silver dollars are cast in batches, although they are relatively standardized, but their colors are also relatively diverse. As for copper coins, because of the rising copper price and high casting cost, the circulation of "making money" in the market is decreasing. In order to generate income, many places have introduced so-called "copper coins"-the value of copper coins is marked, but the value is far higher than the value of copper needed for coinage, which has also become another fuse for the financial crisis caused by the remaining 10 years in the late Qing Dynasty.

Under the extensive financial system and legal system with the characteristics of the Qing Dynasty, there is no mandatory requirement for the reserve for issuing "silver money stamps", which is completely controlled by the issuer. Banks often overpay for profit, which often leads to the depreciation of bills. After the bill depreciates, it is discounted when it is converted into cash, which leads to "discount". The so-called "discount" refers to the forward income (price, exchange rate, interest rate, etc.). ) is lower than the immediate income, and vice versa. Yuan Shikai's "money shortage" is called "discount tide" in history.

Apart from the lack of moral blood in the veins, the indiscriminate issuance of bills by banks is also an "unconventional" response with China characteristics in the fierce market competition.

Most of the banks run by Tianjin Huazi are less than 65,438+200,000 (about 2 million today), which can only be regarded as small enterprises at most. Their competitors are not only state-owned banks, such as Daqing Bank and Bank of Communications, but also many foreign banks, such as HSBC, Dehua Bank and Huaao Dawson Bank. Compared with the two, banks have no advantage, and it has become the choice of many practitioners to make a profit at all costs.

The excessive and indiscriminate issuance of bills by banks in Tianjin had reached an alarming level before the great turmoil of 1900~ 190 1. "It is estimated that there are as many as 20 million tickets issued by banks in China before the boxing bandits have made an insurrection. In the twenty-eighth year of Guangxu (1902), it increased to 32 million. " In just two years, the issuance of bills soared by 50%, and the characteristics of Chinese businessmen with exhausted resources and no bottom line were fully demonstrated again. Because there is no exact data on the amount of silver in the Tianjin market, it is difficult for future generations to find the difference between the total amount of bills and cash, but the amount of 30 million and two thousand is equal to the amount redeemed from the Japanese in that year.

Lessons from Shanghai In the first five years (1897) when the "discount" trend broke out in Tianjin, the same problem happened in Shanghai, which led to a large-scale * * *, which was called "the discount trend of tickets" in history.

"Sticking tickets" and "sticking water" are essentially the products of tight money supply and the collapse of bill credit. The operation process of "bill discount" is just the opposite of "discount" in today's banks-depositors exchange a small amount of deposits in the bank for large certificates of deposit, such as 90 taels, but the bank opens a certificate of deposit of 100 taels, which can be exchanged at maturity. This is actually a high-interest deposit, and interest is paid first when the deposit account is opened.

The emergence of this "financial derivative product" is also due to the "money shortage", and banks use this unconventional way to absorb deposits. Obviously, the key to the success of this "delivering packages" game is that it can be "delivered", allowing banks to lend high-cost deposits at higher interest rates and recover them safely.

The original home has formed a fairly good market chain. A large number of opium dealers get short-term loans through "posting tickets", and the huge profits of opium business enable them to bear high loan interest. There is also a high-quality customer, that is, the new gambling in Shanghai-"He Hui".

"Hui Hui" (or money club, rock club and standard club) was originally a popular non-governmental financial mutual aid organization in Qing Dynasty, especially in Jiangnan area. It consists of relatives, friends and neighbors. The convener is called "meeting head" and the participants are called "meeting feet". Formulated the rules, duration, amount and payment of the meeting, and paid regularly. As a fund for investment and loan, it was passed at the meeting. After this "joint meeting" spread to Shanghai, it became a gambling tool for gamblers to "help each other economically".

"Ticket sticker", a financial innovation product, was first introduced by Sheikh Qianzhuang in Shanghai on 1889, and was widely imitated by the industry. In less than 10 years, almost every small bank in Shanghai is engaged in ticket posting business, and even specializes in ticket posting business. In order to compete for depositors, banks constantly raise the coupon rate, and the highest interest rate is 20% per month-80 taels is deposited and can be retrieved within one month 100 taels. Under the temptation of high returns, many people put their life savings into banks in exchange for OEM.

With the increasing scale of ticketing and the sharp increase in cost, the bubble finally burst in June 1897+0 1. Due to the inability to pay cash at maturity, many banks began to refund a large number of tickets, causing market panic. 1 month, dozens of banks closed down. According to media reports, the amount of "posting tickets" involved in the case is "about several hundred thousand yen, even more than two million people".

Along with this wave of ticket posting, many money bosses either "run away" or commit suicide, which has triggered countless economic disputes and violent conflicts. The whole of Shanghai has been turned upside down by posting tickets, and only the courts and lawyers have exploded.

The greatest feature of the Great Qing Dynasty was that it never learned a lesson. Shanghai's "ticket-posting tide" was almost copied to Tianjin five years later.

Driven by many factors, especially the absence of supervision, Yuan Shikai's rescue of the market has become an economic cancer.

Yuan Shikai described in an emergency report to the Central Committee in May 1 and 1903: "In peacetime, there were only over 100 businessmen in Tianjin, but since the Boxer Rebellion, the land has not been returned for a long time, and officials have no way to ask. Therefore, profiteers rely on no restrictions, take advantage of the trend, and make and sell fakes. At one time, the money industry soared, as many as several hundred. " In the face of national disaster, the ineffective supervision disappeared. Finally, Tianjin became an "adventurer's paradise" and "profiteers" ushered in their golden age.

At that time, Tianjin had reached the point where companies could issue "money and silver stickers", and "finance" became the industry with the lowest threshold in the whole society. However, the bills issued by regular banks have increased sharply. "If there are many small shops, they are all issuing bills, and Taiyuan started." Some people even "pretend to be bank banks to issue bank bills, which is a huge loss for businesses." The monetary credit system was completely eroded and finally became the "short selling market" denounced by Yuan Shikai.

Yuan Shikai knows that under the stupid game, "everything is in jeopardy." The time bomb will detonate as soon as the drums that deliver the package stop. At that time, not only the people with bullets, but also the overall situation of Tianjin and even Zhili will be stable. Of course, it will also include the future of Yuan Shikai, a new political star who has just become the leader of Xinjiang ministers.

The market almost collapsed, and all walks of life are well aware that the "discount" of speculative profits is the chief culprit of this crisis. In his report to the Central Committee, Yuan Shikai said: "Since I took over Tianjin, businessmen at home and abroad, regardless of distance, have regarded it as an invitation to prohibit' discounts'."

Yuan Shikai's first rescue action was to increase liquidity and stabilize several major financial institutions. He set up "Shipingguan Money Bureau" to raise cash 1 10,000, and lent it to the important Qian Shang at a monthly interest rate of 5% (0.5%) for capital turnover. Compared with the previous "discount" of up to 30%, this is a very low interest rate.

Subsequently, Yuan Shikai ordered in 1903 1 that "water folding" was strictly prohibited. As a financial tool, Yin Qiantie must be used with cash and cash. As a result, the credit of bills rose rapidly, and Qian Shang, which had long regarded "discount" as its main income or even its only income, completely broke its financial path and closed down one after another. Later generations accused Yuan Shikai of using drugs to save the market too hard, which led to the expansion of the crisis. This is his shock therapy.