What is the year-end market of liquor stocks?

1。 The overall price-earnings ratio of liquor is above 80, Maotai 43, Wuliangye 40, and liquor is generally at a high level. Maotai Wuliangye is a certain target, and everyone agrees that the reasonable valuation is 30 times.

2。 The basic capacity of Wuliangye Maotai is basically determined, and its future performance can be calculated. It's just that we can't judge whether the price will go up or not and how the market feels. What will happen in the second half of the year? Judging from the current market trading volume and the adjustment range of liquor, there is a greater chance of return in the second half of the year. This can only be said to be fortune telling. I don't look at the price. The price depends on market sentiment.

3。 The logic of the rise of Maotai and Wuliangye or liquor is the increase of their sales and profits, and the high P/E ratio is only a gift from the market. Therefore, judging the profit, Maotai will continue to make steady progress around 10%, and Wuliangye will probably catch up around 20%. Even if the overall impact of the epidemic on high-end liquor is relatively small, the probability of this round of adjustment and valuation is high.

4。 It is foolish to buy Maotai at a price-earnings ratio of 50-70 times. You need to sell it at a higher growth rate or price-earnings ratio. Buying 70 times requires continuous growth in performance, and then selling 70 times can make a profit. What if the P/E ratio drops? If you don't watch liquor for half a year, it will take time to digest it at a high price. When the market made a mistake, you didn't cherish Maotai at 100 yuan, so now you have to wait patiently.