What are the famous fortune-telling theories?

Barnum effect

Barnum effect means that people will believe some relatively broad personality descriptions suitable for most people, which are accurate descriptions of their own personality characteristics.

The name Barnum Effect comes from P.T.barnum, the famous circus nose owner in American history, who is also the prototype of the film "The Master of Circus". He once said that his performance was successful because his program contained elements that everyone liked. Just like those general personality descriptions, they are applicable to almost everyone and have universal validity.

Although I haven't seen you, I know you. Can you believe it? would you like to have a try？

You think it unwise to expose yourself to others too much. You have some untapped potential and advantages. You are an independent thinker and will not accept other people's opinions easily. Sometimes you are outgoing and sociable, but sometimes you just want to find a quiet place to stare blankly and ignore anyone.

What's the matter? Are you talking about me? If you think it is quite accurate, then you may know what Barnum effect is.

Although there is nothing wrong with these sentences themselves, they are actually of little significance in evaluating the unique personality characteristics of individuals. Barnum effect was first discovered by psychologist bertram Fowler, so it is also called Fowler effect.

1949, Fowler conducted an experiment in an introduction to psychology class. He asked the students to do a personality test, and then told them that he would analyze everyone individually and generate a separate personality analysis report for everyone.

After the students got their own analysis report, Fowler asked them to evaluate the effectiveness of the report. 0 is completely invalid and 5 is completely effective. Most students think this analysis is very effective.

Of the 39 students, 13 scored 5 points, 25 scored 4 points, and 1 scored 3 points, with an average score of 4.3 points.

Is Fowler's personality test really that accurate?

Actually, these are all Fowler's designs. Fowler didn't analyze everyone individually. In fact, all the analysis reports you get are exactly the same, all of which are 13 sentences describing personality, and most of them come from an astrology book extracted by Fowler from the newspaper.

For example, safety is one of the main goals in your life. For example, sometimes you will seriously doubt whether you have made the right decision or the right thing.

Why do these analysis reports look so accurate?

Fowler believes that this is due to a cognitive bias called personal verification or subjective verification. We tend to combine those general and broad descriptions with ourselves and look for those parts that can prove them correct from our past experience.

And we tend to pay more attention to those parts that can verify them, and ignore those parts that show that they are wrong. Besides, people are often more willing to hear good things about themselves. Barnum's description of personality is always positive, so people tend to believe him.

Allport, a personality psychologist, once said that one way for a personality analyst to succeed is to use vague terms that are applicable to almost all ordinary people.

Therefore, part of the personality test astrology fortune-telling makes people feel very accurate, which is to some extent the use of Barnum effect. You can listen and laugh, but it's best not to let it affect your correct and rational duties.

How to avoid Barnum effect?

First, stay alert and rational.

If you think what he said is very accurate, then you might as well think about whether there are any inconsistencies and examples.

Second, do some professional psychological personality tests.

For example, Big Five Personality Scale, Eysenck Personality Questionnaire, Cattell 16 Personality Factor Questionnaire and so on. Then these tests are based on theoretical and empirical research, and they all have good reliability and validity. You might as well give them a try.