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How to treat the stock moving average?

The origin of moving average theory

The moving average MA, also called moving average and cost line, represents the average cost of buying stocks in a certain period, reflecting the strength and running trend of stock prices in a certain period. Arithmetic moving average is to add up the closing prices of n days and divide by n to get the arithmetic moving average of the nth day.

Technical characteristics of EMA: tracking trend, lag, stability, helping up and down, support line and pressure line characteristics.

The so-called moving average refers to the arithmetic average within a certain trading time (day, week, month and year). Take the 5-day moving average as an example, and accumulate the closing price within 5 days day by day. Then divide by 5 to get the 5-day average, and then connect these averages in sequence on the graph. This drawn line is called the 5-day moving average. The same is true of other moving averages. Sampling days are parameters of moving average, usually 5 days, 10 days, 30 days, 120 days, 250 days and so on.

Type of moving average: 1) Classification of short, medium and long-term moving averages:

People usually refer to the 5-day and 10 moving averages as short-term moving averages. Short-term moving averages are more sensitive to price or index fluctuations than long-term moving averages, and the fluctuations change faster. In short-term operation or weakness, people often use the 10 moving average as the basis for short-term trading.

People usually refer to the 20th (monthly line), 30th and 60th (seasonal line) moving averages as medium-term moving averages. Among them, the 30-day moving average has the highest frequency of use and is often called the lifeline of the stock market. When it is strong, the stock price often falls below the 30-day moving average or bends downward as the final stop loss position of the stock. Bending up or down for 60 days is often used as the dividing line between bulls and bears! People usually refer to the 120 (semi-annual line) and 250 (annual line) moving averages as long-term moving averages.

2) Average of Common Combinations At present, there are the following average combinations commonly used in the stock market: short-term average combinations are 5, 10, 20, 5, 10, 30; The medium-term moving average combination is 10, 30, 60 days, 20, 40, 60 days; The combination of long-term moving averages is 30,60,120,60,120,250 days.

Short-term moving average portfolio. The most commonly used combinations are 5, 10, 20th and 5th, 10 and 30th. The short-term moving average portfolio is mainly used to observe the short-term running trend of the stock price, such as what will happen to the stock price trend in 1-3 months.

Generally speaking, in a typical rising channel, the 5-day moving average should be a multi-party support center, otherwise the rising strength is limited; 10 moving average is an important support line for bulls. If the 10 moving average is effectively broken, the market may weaken. In a weak market, when the popularity is low, the resistance level of weak rebound should be 10 moving average; The 20-day and 30-day moving averages are important indicators to measure the strength of short-term trends in the market. When the 20-day and 30-day moving averages tilt upward, they can be bullish and bullish in the short term. When the 20-day and 30-day moving averages are inclined downward, they are short-term bearish and short-selling.

Mid-term moving average combination. The most commonly used combinations are 10, 30, 60 days and 20, 40 and 60 days. The medium-term moving average combination is mainly used to observe the medium-term running trend of the market or individual stocks, such as what will happen to the market or individual stocks in 3-6 months. Generally speaking, the medium-term moving average is in a long position, indicating that the medium-term trend of the market or individual stocks is improving. At this time, investors should see more and do more in the medium term; On the contrary, the medium-term moving average is short, indicating that the medium-term trend of the market or individual stocks is weak. At this time, investors should be short-selling in the medium term.

From a practical point of view, it is more accurate and reliable to study the trend of the market or individual stocks with medium-term moving average analysis than with short-term moving average combination. For example, when the market bottoms out, if you are not sure whether to rebound or reverse, the medium-term moving average combination will help you a lot. When the 30-day moving average crosses the 60-day moving average, there will be a decent intermediate market, and when the combination of medium-term moving averages diverges upwards, it often indicates the coming of a big market; On the contrary, when the 30-day moving average crosses the 60-day moving average, there will be a big decline, and when the combination of medium-term moving averages diverges downward, it often indicates the coming of a big drop. It can be seen that it is very important for investors to understand and understand the use and skills of the medium-term moving average portfolio.

Long-term moving average combination. The most common combinations are 30, 60, 120 and 60, 120 and 250 days. The combination of long-term moving averages is mainly used to observe the long-term trend of the market or individual stocks, such as what will happen to the trend of stock prices for more than half a year. Generally speaking, when the moving averages in the long-term moving average portfolio form a golden cross and become a long arrangement, it shows that the market is optimistic about the long-term trend of the market or individual stocks. At this time, investors should keep a long-term thinking, and when they encounter intraday shocks or callbacks, they must dare to absorb on dips; On the other hand, when the moving averages in the long-term moving average portfolio form a dead fork and become short positions, it shows that the market is bearish on the long-term trend of the market or individual stocks. At this time, investors should keep a long-term thinking, and when they encounter intraday shocks or rebounds, they must insist on losing weight on rallies.

Double moving average theory

The eight rules founded by Glenaway, an American investment expert, can be described as the essence of the average theory, which has always been regarded as the treasure of the average analysis by users, and the average also gives full play to the spirit of Dow Jones theory.

Four of the eight rules are used to judge the buying time and four are used to judge the selling time. Generally speaking, when the moving average is lower than the price and shows an upward trend, it is the time to buy; Conversely, when the moving average is above the price line and shows a downward trend, it is a selling opportunity. Purchase rules

Buy 1: the moving average gradually leveled off from the decline and rose slightly, while the price broke through from the downward direction of the moving average, which is a buy signal.

Buy 2: the price runs above the moving average, and the buying time is when the price does not fall below the moving average and then rises again.

Buy 3: The price runs above the EMA, and falls below the EMA when it returns, but the short-term EMA continues to show an upward trend. This is the time to buy.

Buy 4: the price runs below the moving average, plummeting for several days in a row, getting farther and farther away from the moving average, and it is very likely to approach the moving average. This is the time to buy. Sales rules

Sell 1: the moving average gradually leveled off from the rise. When the price fell below the moving average from the top of the moving average, it indicated that the selling pressure was getting heavier and heavier, and the stocks held should be sold.

Sell 2: The price runs below the EMA, does not break through the EMA when rebounding, and the decline rate of the EMA slows down, and then tends to be horizontal and then shows a downward trend. This is a sales opportunity.

Sell 3: After the price rebounds, it hovers above the EMA, but the EMA continues to fall, so it is advisable to sell the stocks it holds.

Sell 4: The price runs above the moving average, rising sharply for several days, getting farther and farther away from the moving average, and there will be profit-taking selling pressure at any time, so the stock should be sold temporarily.

How to stay away from the moving average and when is it appropriate? For this information, you can refer to the deviation rate index appropriately.

Characteristic Analysis of Three Moving Average Lines

1, tracking the trend steadily. As can be seen from the calculation method, the moving average filters the influence of accidental factors to a certain extent, which makes us see the general trend of the market clearly.

2. Help rise and fall. The moving average reflects the market's willingness to buy and sell over a period of time. Reflected in the chart, the moving average has the meaning of support and pressure. This role makes it more likely that the market will continue to develop.

3. lag. Horses reflect the market for a period of time. When there are new changes in the market, horses often send out buy and sell signals later, resulting in a decline in the actual profit rate.