National housing price trend

Today's real estate market is anybody's guess. The following are some relevant reference materials.

Eight housing price forecasts of China in 2008.

Xie Guozhong, the former chief economist of Morgan Stanley Asia-Pacific, once put forward an amazing view: China's housing prices will bottom out in 2008 or 2009. However, Chen Fan, managing director of Standard Chartered Direct Investment Co., Ltd. believes that the price increase of China real estate is inevitable. So, how will the housing prices in China behave in 2008? Let's take a look at the industry's predictions.

Recently, there are many opinions about "China property market will have an inflection point", among which the most critical, sensitive and concerned topic is housing price. So, in 2008, did the house price in China go up or down? From the perspective of China's macro-economic trend and regional plate, the insiders made an eight-point forecast of China's house price in 2008. The market is the best "touchstone"-I believe that all kinds of predictions about the trend of housing prices in China in 2008 will be answered in the market.

One of the predictions is that

On the whole, there will be an "adjustment period" for housing prices in China, but there will be no sharp drop, and a small increase is still possible.

Despite the tight monetary policy issued by the Central Economic Work Conference, house prices may fluctuate and adjust to some extent, but China's economy will still be in a period of rapid growth in 2008, and the real estate economy will remain one of the mainstream of China's economy, with a large amount of development and strong demand. In addition to domestic demand, there will be many potential international demands under the background of China hosting the Olympic Games, and the process of urbanization will still be accelerated. Therefore, there will still be some growth in real estate. Generally speaking, a slight increase in house prices is still a trend.

Look at the major industries in China. Pork, grain, oil and raw materials are all rising, and the "crazy stone" is also rising hundreds of times. Where can house prices fall? To take a step back, even if China's housing prices are going to fall, there will be a "transition period" and "incubation period", which will not appear in 2008, but after 2009, because according to the theory of economic cycle, it has been almost five years since the "blowout phenomenon" appeared in China in 2003, and generally five years is an economic cycle, which means that 2009 is more likely to be a big cycle.

The second prophecy

From a local point of view, housing prices in the Pearl River Delta region, mainly in Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Zhuhai, have been lowered in some places, but there will be no large-scale and large-scale price reduction. Now it is only a small "shock", and the long-term trend is definitely that prices will be "stable".

Because the reason is simple, the Pearl River Delta region is the region with the highest degree of marketization, the highest degree of real estate marketization and the most thorough housing system reform in China, so it will have the strongest ability to cope with risks. At the same time, with the "economic integration between Guangdong and Hong Kong", in the long run, it will be a trend for Shenzhen housing prices to be in line with Hong Kong, so "tortuous progress is the main theme". The third prophecy

In the Yangtze River Delta region, Shanghai's housing prices will still be higher, but the housing prices in neighboring cities, such as Hangzhou, Ningbo and Suzhou, will narrow the gap. Similarly, in today's "world economic integration" and "world flattening", Shanghai's real estate demand will still increase, including some huge international demand. In line with international standards, Shanghai's housing prices are still not high. Therefore, after some adjustments, Shanghai's housing prices will still rise slightly.

It can be said that the Shanghai property market is now a barometer of the China property market. If Shanghai's housing prices really fall, then "China real estate winter" will really come. In addition, from the perspective of Hangzhou and Ningbo, the housing prices of the two cities will eventually converge, but with the integration with Shanghai, the housing prices in Ningbo still have the potential to rise, and the housing prices in Suzhou and Nanjing will tend to be calm due to the limitation of consumption energy.

The fourth prophecy

From the perspective of "Bohai Rim", the city with the most active housing prices is of course Tianjin, with an average price of around 7,500 yuan per square meter, especially "Binhai New Area". With the improvement of the environment, its house price will still rise.

With the great integration of "Beijing and Tianjin", compared with Beijing, Tianjin's housing price is the goal. Needless to say, in the political center of China, the word "stability" is the most appropriate. Of course, among the coastal cities in Shandong, Qingdao's housing price is the strongest, and with the introduction of Qingdao's new policy, housing prices will still have a process of re-exerting, because the value of Qingdao itself determines that housing prices are value for money; The housing prices in Yantai, Weihai and other cities will basically be in place if you don't play the personality card.

Of course, Dalian is also a part of "Bohai Rim". Because its urban construction is becoming more and more perfect, its housing prices are basically in place, and with the introduction of certain measures by the local government, housing prices may have some twists and turns, because the positioning of this city is first oriented to the general public.

The fifth prophecy

In the "Northeast", as the largest city in Northeast China, with the improvement of urban infrastructure, Shenyang's housing market will remain the most active, and its price will still rise slightly. The average price in the second ring road will be around 5,500 yuan, in the central park and other areas around 8,000 yuan, and outside the third ring road around 3,000 yuan.

Relatively speaking, among the three capital cities in Northeast China, Changchun can't compare with Shenyang and Harbin in terms of city size, population base, economic strength and industrial scale, but its housing prices have a process of "survival of the fittest", especially in recent years, Changchun has attracted 100 top development enterprises (including Vanke, China Shipping, CITIC, Wanda, etc. ) to enter the development, start with quality.

Although Harbin has incorporated Songbei, Hulan and Acheng into the city map and implemented the strategy of "metropolitan area", the overall house price has always been "moderate". However, it is estimated that the average price of the central city within the Second Ring Road in 2008 is between 6,000-7,000 yuan/square meter, and it is possible for a few to reach 10,000 yuan.

The sixth prophecy

Compared with the coastal areas, the housing price base of some cities in the "Northwest" has been relatively low, and some even only have about 1 10,000 yuan. However, in recent years, with the development of the western region, housing prices in some cities have started to rise like tigers, and there has been a continuous "daily limit". Some small cities even rise faster than medium-sized cities, and medium-sized cities rise faster than big cities.

In 2008, due to the rapid rise in the early stage and the relatively limited demand in the later stage, the house price will be in a period of violent shock, and the phenomenon of "daily limit" will no longer appear. A slightly better house in Lanzhou costs about 4,000 yuan per square meter, while the front row of five capital cities in northwest China before Yinchuan was given to Urumqi, and its average price in Urumqi is about 3,300 yuan/square meter.

As a famous historical and cultural city in China, Xi 'an now wants to realize the dream of "the new capital of Datang", but the house price should be properly guaranteed. The seventh prophecy

The hot spot of "Southwest" is of course "Chengdu-Chongqing Plate". After Chengdu and Chongqing were declared as "special zones" at the same time in 2007, the rapid rise of house prices is actually a process of discovering potential value. After all, these two cities have always occupied an important position in Chinese territory since ancient times, and their natural resources are good. As long as the planning is in place, the price has potential, so there is still room for potential housing prices in these two cities in 2008.

As China's economic hotspots shift from the coast to the mainland and then to the west, Chengdu and Chongqing will become hot spots for investment in western China, and the absolute value of the housing price gap between the western region and the eastern region will be narrowed.

As far as the housing prices of provincial capitals are concerned, Chongqing's housing prices will still be lower than those of western provincial capitals such as Chengdu, Kunming and Guizhou, and the gap with Chengdu will still exist. The average house price in the main city is around 3,200 yuan/square meter, and the average house price in the "Northern New District" with higher house prices may reach about 5,500 yuan/square meter. Because Chengdu is also building a "leisure capital" and is a very livable city, buildings with a price of 5,000-8,000 yuan/square meter will blossom everywhere.

The eighth prophecy

The "Central Region" can be said to be the hottest part of the China plate recently. Because the "Wuhan City Circle" and the "Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan City Group" have been approved as "National Experimental Zones" at the same time, many people think that after these two places become "Special Zones", house prices will rise as fast as those in Chongqing and Chengdu.

Actually, it's not like this. Because the good news in the market was digested at least two months ago, when Wuhan and Changsha were approved as "special zones", the property market seemed relatively calm. Another point we must make clear is that Wuhan City Circle and Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan City Group have been approved as "national experimental zones", and their positioning is to test a "two-oriented" society-a "resource-saving, environment-friendly" society, so the environmental protection industry will benefit the most, not the real estate industry. In building a resource-saving and environment-friendly society, the real estate industry should also

As far as Wuhan is concerned, housing prices are basically in place. The data shows that in 2007+065438+ 10, the house price in Wuhan only rose by 5.37% in June, which was nearly 4% lower than that in June. So is it possible for the house price in Wuhan to fall?

It is possible in some areas. To give a simple example, the average price in Hankou is now more than 6,000 yuan/square meter, while the house price in Guanggu area, especially in the suburbs, has reached more than 6,000 yuan/square meter. It can be seen that the house prices in these places either have bubbles or have been overdrawn in advance.

So if it falls down, it is possible to build buildings in the suburbs of Optics Valley. Another thing to refer to is that Zhuankou, which is opposite to Guanggu, is a national development zone, a barometer of Wuhan's economy and the best planned and protected urban area in Wuhan. But now the house price is only 4,073 yuan/square meter, which is either high in Guanggu or low in Zhuankou. Therefore, the housing price in Zhuankou area is low.

As far as the whole central city of Wuhan is concerned, the housing prices of Northwest Lake, Jiaoling Lake and Husha Lake still have certain appreciation potential. From the development point of view, the average price of ten thousand yuan is just around the corner. At the same time, with the construction of "Wuhan City Circle", the housing prices of eight surrounding cities will benefit. With the entry of brand developers, the biggest increase in house prices will probably be Xiaogan City, and its price will reach about 4,500 yuan/square meter.

Of course, with the construction of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration, the housing prices in Xiangtan and Zhuzhou will also benefit, and they should be in line with Changsha. At the same time, because the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration is easy and has been close to the Pearl River Delta, once Hunan people wake up, the housing prices of Changsha, the capital city with lower housing prices, will also "roar", and the central city will blossom everywhere, and the housing prices of 10,000 yuan on both sides of Furong District and Xiangjiang River will also be dotted among them.