202 1 1, can the growth enterprise market index of A shares surpass the broader market and rise to 4000 points?

202 1 1, can the growth enterprise market index of A shares surpass the broader market and rise to 4000 points?

Simply put:

First, the Growth Enterprise Market has achieved a 64% increase in the past 2020. Although there is a callback during the period, the callback does not affect its increase. Compared with 15, with the intervention of various funds and leveraged funds, it has achieved an increase of about 84%. At present, although the growth enterprise market will reach 64% in 2020, the amount of funds is not as good as 15. So this is one of the key points that investors need to pay attention to. Secondly, the growth rate of GEM in 2020 after the implementation of the registration system is indeed considerable. But at this time, it should be noted that although the GEM has soared, the main board has not grown much, and the GEM has not made a decent callback. During the Spring Festival, investors still need to be cautious about the growth of the Growth Enterprise Market under the uncertainty of various factors. Of course, the indexes here are for reference only, and they should be combined.

Then, can the GEM index surpass the broader market index at 202 1 and reach 4000 points? I think it's very difficult here. Although the implementation of the GEM registration system is very successful, there are still two aspects to be considered. First, can incremental funds continue to come in to maintain the current market level, that is to say, if incremental funds are delayed, then the current market cannot be maintained here. Second, any sector that has risen too much needs a correction. So is the index. When incremental funds did not come in, the market began to adjust. In addition, our management is relatively slow, so the author thinks that the short market will not last long, otherwise it will continue to pull down the index, which is a bit of a loss.

To sum up, the author thinks that the growth rate of the Growth Enterprise Market Index is too large in 2020, and there is an expectation of a correction, so it is still very difficult for the 202 1 Growth Enterprise Market Index to reach 4000 points! On the contrary, the author believes that the Shanghai Composite Index will gradually open the slow bull market in the future!

This question is actually probabilistic!

First, if the growth enterprise market continues to be strong and the market continues to be suppressed in the short term, it may surpass the market, but it will not last long;

Second, there are currently more than 3,000 GEM points, and there is still a distance of about 30% from 4,000 points. I think it's possible. After all, the bull market is not over yet, so the bull market is not the top;

Now the situation is!

Market pressure has not entered the main rising wave, and the growth enterprise market has entered the main rising wave.

On the one hand, because there is a certain setting pressure in the early stage, it takes a long time to resolve it;

On the other hand, the registration system of the main board has not been fully implemented, and this tipping point has not yet begun;

Now A shares stand at 3,500 points and have not fallen below 3,200 points.

Obviously, the lock-up pressure around 2600~3400 points has been basically resolved, and the chips have also fallen into the hands of long-term institutional funds.

From the data, we can see that:

The proportion of retail circulation is getting lower and lower, and the proportion of institutional circulation is getting higher and higher. Obviously, long-term capital inflow will help retail investors solve problems, so the purpose must be to make big money, not to do charity. If you want to understand this truth, you will know that the future space of the market will not be small!

Then, from the data of Q2~Q3 in 2020.

In fact, the motherboard is still a long way from the top of the bull market, indicating that it has not come to an end;

Growth enterprise market has entered a high-risk position ahead of schedule. After all, the growth enterprise market is the main rising wave in these two years.

Therefore, the GEM entered a high-level shock washing in Q3~Q4.

Now 202 1, in fact, we see that the GEM data has been adjusted to the position near the last bull market adjustment.

Therefore, the time and space for further adjustment are limited, which has stimulated the current skyrocketing.

Then, it depends on whether the surge here is a rebound or the second round of main increase. If it is a rebound, it will continue to usher in a wave of aerial refueling adjustment in the future, but if it is the main rising wave, it will enter the middle and late stage of the bull market.

For the motherboard!

Still waiting for the landing of the registration system, waiting for the outbreak.

I think this will be seen in 20021.At the latest, it depends on whether the market is taking a structural bull market or a rapid bull market.

The difference will end around 4000.

Because the way retail investors enter will determine whether it is a mad cow or a structural bull market.

In the middle and late period of the past bull market, retail investors all entered the market through bank transfer, that is, retail investors themselves entered the market to speculate, thus seeing the mad cow.

20 19-2020, most of the retail funds in the market enter the market by buying funds, and the funds are operated by relatively rational institutional investors, which naturally leads to a structural bull market.

However, after the 4000-point meeting in the future, there will be a certain money-making effect in the market, and what form people's savings funds will enter the market will determine whether the second bull market is a rapid bull market or a structural bull market.

To sum up, can the A-share Growth Enterprise Market Index surpass the broader market and rise to 4000 points? Nothing is impossible, but the probability of continuously exceeding the market is low, and it will take some time to exceed it.

In the end, the market will still usher in compensatory growth, far from getting rid of the GEM.

After all, the current market valuation relative to the GEM is still relatively low.

There is such a tendency in the market at present. But investors must keep a clear head. Many times, the craziest and most wishful time is often a very dangerous time. Because the market is still anchored, such as judging the market valuation by the average P/E ratio and P/B ratio of GEM. This can not only avoid impulsive decisions, but also avoid uncertain risks.

At present, the valuation of GEM is still relatively high. Compared with the P/E ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index, the P/E ratio of the GEM has reached 50 or more. Of course, it is risky to pass the P/E ratio, but it does not mean that it will fall immediately, and it may continue to rise. The growth of GEM index is mainly supported by new energy and innovative drugs. Therefore, whether the GEM can surpass the Shanghai Composite Index to 4000 points depends on the increase of new energy and innovative drugs.

So far, we haven't seen the GEM reach 4000 points. After all, it has just reached 3000 points and needs to be consolidated. However, in 2020, the growth of GEM index will lead the world by 60%, and it will be difficult for 202 1 to continue to lead the growth. Growth enterprise market index needs 33% to reach 4000 points, while Shanghai stock index only needs 14.3% to reach 4000 points.

202 1 1, the growth enterprise market index of A shares can surpass the broader market and rise to 4000 points.

Mainly because:

1. GEM heavyweights have contributed too much.

In the past two days, many people said that the GEM index should be renamed Ningde Index.

A stock of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. rose continuously, bringing the GEM to 3000 points.

The top ten heavyweights on the GEM have contributed too much to the GEM.

The remaining GEM stocks basically have no impact on the index, and the rise of more than a dozen stocks represents a sector index, which is also the main reason for the bullish GEM.

Therefore, the growth enterprise market index has not risen, which is meaningless.

2. The heavyweights of the Shanghai Composite Index can't rise sharply.

The opposite of GEM is the Shanghai Composite Index. There are too many heavyweights, especially bank insurance brokers, which have a great influence on the Shanghai Composite Index.

This is doomed that the Shanghai Composite Index will not rise by more than 100 points almost every day like the Growth Enterprise Market Index.

The Shanghai Composite Index is also distorted and cannot represent the main board. The decline or rise of individual stocks can hardly affect the Shanghai Composite Index.

The difference of 3.400 points is not big, and 65438+ 10 can be exceeded.

Today, the GEM index rose by more than 100, or nearly 4 points, and the gap with the broader market was only about 400 points.

Judging from the current situation, the GEM index surpasses the Shanghai Composite Index, and it won't be long before it will surpass the Shanghai Composite Index this month.

The GEM index reached 4000 points earlier than the Shanghai Stock Exchange index, indicating that the registration system of GEM is very successful, at least in appearance.

In short, the three major A-share indexes are now distorted and can only be used as a reference. Individual stocks are difficult to operate, and many stocks cannot keep up with the decline. Be more alert to the sharp drop in individual stocks when the index falls!

Personal opinion, for reference only!

Let's review the last bull market. In the last bull market, the growth enterprise market index rose from 585.44 points to 4037 points in two and a half years, an increase of 6.9 times. But in this bull market, so far, the growth enterprise market index has risen from 1 184.438+0 points to more than 3000 points, only rising but not falling.

Even if this round of market can't reach the increase of 6.9 times of the last round of bull market, the increase of more than 2 times is obviously not the ultimate goal of this index in a round of bull market. At present, the GEM index has exceeded 3,000 points, and 4,000 points is not difficult to achieve. As for whether you say it can rise to 4000 points in January, my answer is that it is hard to say, and it may rise to 4000 points. Whether the stock market is bullish or bearish is a high probability in a short time. Even if the prediction is correct, there is nothing to be proud of. It's right this time, and it may be wrong next time.

The last round of the market rose 6.9 times, most of which was completed within five months of 20 15, which was the main rising wave of the bull market. If the stock market goes from 1 to the main rising wave in 2020, then the task of rising to 4000 this month can be completed. If the market still keeps the rhythm of last year's volatility, it wants to complete the rise of 1000 points this month.

Since the revision of the index, we should find that the index seems to be "increasingly unreliable", often rising sharply, while most stocks are falling, so the best strategy is to hold the stocks at the bottom, wait for the arrival of the bull market and let the market come out by itself.

Growth enterprise market rose 4% in intraday trading on Monday, which is very close to 3 100. According to the bull market strength of GEM, the GEM index will definitely rise to 4000 points.

Why is the GEM index bound to rise to 4000 points? The reason is simple, because the GEM index is still bullish and the bull market is far from over.

Although GEM will achieve a 64% increase in 2020, this increase is still the starting point of a bull market. Growth enterprise market has not really entered the accelerated market. Once the GEM enters an accelerated market, the index will inevitably rise to more than 4,000 points.

The reason is because the current A-share bull market, the main board is still a heavyweight, and many main board stocks have not risen. Secondly, the same is true for GEM stocks. Many GEM stocks are still lying at the bottom and have not moved at all.

When most of these stocks enter compensatory growth, it will be a real bull market at that time, and the gains of the three major indexes will really open, so it is speculated that both the main board and the growth enterprise market index will rise above 4000 points.

Of course, if the GEM index rises above 4,000 points, it will definitely not rise at this stage, but after the next round of pull-up, the GEM index will rise above 4,000 points.

The GEM index is currently peaking and will enter a new round of adjustment after peaking. Only after a new round of adjustment, return to the upward trend and start a new round of pull-up market, the GEM index will challenge 4000 points.

According to the time period, it will take the second half of this year or the beginning of 2022 for the GEM index to rise to 4000 points, and the A-share bull market will accelerate before it can rise to this point.

To sum it up

The growth enterprise market index will definitely rise to 4000 points, and it needs to be adjusted to restart a new round of market pull-up. Investors are advised to wait patiently for the outbreak of a new round of market.

202 1 1, can the growth enterprise market index of A shares surpass the broader market and rise to 4000 points? Hello, I'm Qian Qiu. For this question, I feel a bit like fortune telling. It is true that the GEM index has been very sharp recently, but the cumulative increase in the past two years is too large, and the heavyweights have almost no taste of adjustment. Yesterday, it broke through 3000 points (65438+10.4) and reached 3078 points. According to the increase ratio, it needs to increase by about 30% in the future to reach 4000 points. Judging from past experience, this is almost an impossible task. Only in the capital market, it is always a place with dreams, so I am qualified to say that anything is possible.

If the attributive of 202 1, 1 is changed to the whole year of 202 1, the possibility will be greatly increased. However, I still prefer that the GEM index will fluctuate greatly. After all, the valuation of the whole sector is impossible to see. However, as a pioneer in the reform of the registration system, its demonstration effect is still very important. The release of the vitality of the GEM will also drive the reform of the registration system of the main board, small and medium-sized board and even the main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. From this perspective, it is hard for anyone to say that the GEM will not move. After all, it hit a record high of 4,037.96 points in 2065,438+05, and the high probability will be broken in the future, but whether it can be realized in 2026,5438+0 or even 2026,5438+0, 1 seems to me to be only a small probability event.

Qian Qiu said, question and answer, happiness has connotation.

202 1, 1, the growth enterprise market index may surpass the Shanghai index, but it is difficult because of the short time limit. However, in 20021year, the GEM index surpassed the Shanghai Composite Index, and there is basically no suspense. Growth enterprise market index is in a bull market, which will definitely exceed 4000 points.

1. Will the Growth Enterprise Market Index surpass the Shanghai Composite Index at 5438+0 in June? On the first trading day of 202 1, the growth enterprise market showed a skyrocketing trend, rising by 3.77%. In the first two trading days, the GEM index rose sharply. On February 30th, 2020, the GEM index rose by 3. 1 1%, and on February 30th, it was 65438+3 1, and the GEM index rose by 2.27%.

On the second trading day of 202 1, the growth enterprise market index fluctuated, opening lower and going higher, and finally closed up by 0.56%. However, there was an obvious movement in the session, which once fell by 1.63%, indicating that after the short-term continuous rise of the GEM, there have been obvious differences between long and short positions, and it is difficult to continue the unilateral rise.

At present, the Shanghai Composite Index is 3528.68 points, and the Growth Enterprise Market Index is 3097.98 points. The Shanghai Composite Index is 430.7 points higher than the Growth Enterprise Market Index, with an interval of 13.9%. Then, in the remaining 18 trading days of 65438+ 10, the growth enterprise market index needs to rise by 0.77% on average every day compared with the Shanghai Composite Index, but as we all know, several major indexes of A shares. Therefore, the Shanghai Composite Index may surpass the Shanghai Composite Index in 1 month, but the probability is not great.

Second, the GEM index will definitely surpass the Shanghai Composite Index this year. I made a prediction in early 2020, and the GEM index will definitely surpass the Shanghai Composite Index within two years. I was ridiculed by many people at that time. Many people think this is impossible, because at that time, the GEM index was less than 2,000 points, and the Shanghai Composite Index was already around 3,000 points.

But now, the facts are gradually coming to my initial judgment in India. In 2020, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 13.87%, and the Growth Enterprise Market Index rose by 64.96% in 2020, far exceeding the Shanghai Composite Index, further narrowing the gap between the two indexes. Since 20021year has just begun, the growth enterprise market index will rise sharply, which has laid the main tone for the growth enterprise market in 20021year.

Third, the GEM is in a bull market, which will exceed 4,000 points. Since last year, I have made it clear that the GEM is already in a bull market, and the two themes of chips and Tesla will carry out this round of GEM bull market. Tesla concept continues to skyrocket, and chips also skyrocket in the first half of 20021. Although there was an intermediate adjustment after July, it was only an adjustment in the bull market, and the bull market will still be determined later.

GEM refers to the bull market with three major supports:

First, the GEM index has been registered, giving it a strong impetus. Many people regard the registration system as a flood, which is very superficial. The real bull market must be brought by the registration system, which has been running for more than ten years. Under the registration system of GEM, companies are divided, and good companies are constantly rising, which drives the GEM to refer to cows.

Second, many companies on GEM are companies in emerging industries, and the prospects of these industries are very broad. With the transformation of China's economic growth mode, technological innovation will become a new driving force for future economic growth, instead of simply pulling through fixed assets investment, which will bring great imagination to these industries.

Second, the GEM refers to the component index, which consists of 65,438+000 GEM stocks and will be adjusted regularly, which is different from the compilation method of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index. This means that those good companies will enter the component index and push the index up, while those bad companies will be transferred out of the index. The banking stocks in the Shanghai Composite Index have no growth prospects at all, and PetroChina is also falling. Growth enterprise market index can't compare with Shanghai Stock Exchange index at all.

Third, the Shanghai Composite Index is the oldest index of A-shares, which has experienced several bull markets, including the bull market of technology stocks at 200 1, 6 124 in 2007 and 5/5 178 in 2007, and accumulated a large number of profit-taking, while the Growth Enterprise Market Index has only gone through 20 after its establishment.

Therefore, the GEM bull market continues. It will surpass the Shanghai Composite Index this year and will continue to strengthen. Even if it can't hit a record high this year, it will hit a record high next year.

202 1 is the year of scientific and technological innovation in China. There are many technology stocks on GEM, and it is certain that the index will hit a new high. As for whether it can reach 4000 points, it depends on the support of national policies and monetary policies. I am optimistic about the market outlook, and the rise and shock are the main tone. In the short term, I should pay attention to the rise and fall of the index, and the high-quality stocks are mainly absorbed on dips.

The growth enterprise market index is only about 3 100, and it is impossible to think of 4,000 points, which is equivalent to a 30% increase in January.

The P/E ratio of GEM is as high as 67 times, up 30%, about 90 times. What is this concept? More than twice as high as Nasdaq in the United States. Everyone is registered. Why can GEM enjoy high valuation?

Growth enterprise market (gem) has been bullish for 20 years, but it is not a general increase, but the credit for the increase of institutional shareholding. The market value of institutional shareholding is huge. For example, the market value of Contemporary Anpu Technology Co., Ltd. once approached the trillion-dollar mark, the market value of Arowana once reached 700 billion yuan, the market value of Aier Ophthalmology once reached 300 billion yuan, the market value of Mindray Medical also reached 600 billion yuan, and the market value of Shi Wen shares once reached 300 billion yuan. At present, the total market value of GEM is 1 1 trillion, and the market value of several companies is close to 20%. The index is completely dominated by several large companies, and these stocks are still bullish or have been bullish, and the surge has boosted the GEM index.

However, there is no such thing as a banquet that must come to an end, and the organization's control over the group is not static, and there will be times when it is loose. Shi Wen's share price fell from a high level. Today, Arowana's share price fluctuated widely and staged a roller coaster. 65438+1October 5 hit a record high of 139.9 yuan, but then turned around and fell by nearly 5%, with the amplitude 18.6 1% and the market value fluctuating125.2 billion yuan.

Aier Ophthalmology is also an institutional unit. On Monday, it was suppressed by bad news and once fell by nearly 9%. Without some institutions running away, will it fall so much? Look at the price-earnings ratio of contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., which is more than 200 times. If we want to underestimate it, I'm afraid people who say it are beating drums and gongs.

Growth enterprise market index can remain strong in the short term, but it may be greatly adjusted and overvalued in the end. In the case of insufficient liquidity and a steady stream of registered new shares, the next valuation is not alarmist, but has a high probability.

The above is only a superficial personal view and does not constitute any investment advice.