Fortune Telling Collection - Comprehensive fortune-telling - What is pseudoscience? what do you dislike most?
What is pseudoscience? what do you dislike most?
I must expose some "pseudoscience" which is very popular at present. Even if this answer may touch many people's cakes, it will be opposed by many people, and more people must understand the scientific truth.
(1) only through the "birthday" fortune telling.
In fact, many statistical experiments have proved that it is not more accurate to "calculate" a person's fate just by birth date. This pretentious fortune-telling is considered accurate by some people for three main reasons:
1 It's hard to falsify. It is difficult to verify the accuracy of the prediction by describing your future with a long time span and ambiguous words.
For example, the fortune teller said that you would have a "mass annihilation" in two years. Here comes the problem. First, two years is a long time, and it is normal to encounter some setbacks in life. Second, what is the "mass annihilation"? Does breaking skin count? Does nosebleeds count? This kind of time span is very long, and it is difficult to deny the prediction that the right of interpretation is in the hands of fortune tellers. In fact, it is almost "sure to come true", so it is almost impossible to falsify.
2 pygmalion effect (). When the predicted result is told to the predicted person, it will have an impact on his future and others.
I believe that most people have this experience: when you are praised by your teacher for your talent or hard work, you will be very happy, full of motivation and your grades will get better and better; On the contrary, if the teacher says you are stupid and hopeless, you will also be hit, stop studying hard and your grades will get worse.
This is pygmalion effect. The fortune teller's prediction will have an impact on your future behavior (especially when you trust him especially), so many times the accurate prediction is not the credit of the fortune teller, but your own psychology.
3 survival deviation. Only the correct prediction will be celebrated.
A classic example: During World War II, the British Air Force called Professor Ward of Statistics to reduce casualties. A group of people studied the existing data and found that most EVA fighters who came back safely had bullet marks on their wings, but there were fewer bullet marks in the cockpit, so an officer said, "Obviously, if we are missing something, we should reinforce the wings. Ward, of course, wouldn't jump to conclusions so easily, so he began to look at the data and found that all the research data came back safely. That is to say, those fighters who didn't come back had been killed and couldn't be found, so he imagined that the fighter planes could come back safely because there were few bullet holes in the engine room, so it was the engine room that needed to be reinforced.
This is the deviation of survivors. Most people whose fortune-telling results are not accurate will only complain about their fortune-telling in secret, but will not publicize it. Only those who make accurate predictions will try their best to publicize them, and fortune tellers will flaunt their accuracy with examples of accurate predictions.
Of course, when I say these three phenomena, I don't mean that fortune-telling is completely unreliable. I just accuse some people that fortune telling has only a small amount of information and has little impact on life. In fact, the judgment of a person's future destiny originally needs multi-dimensional information: his family background, past experience, looks, wealth, personality and so on. These are the factors that really affect his fate, not just the time of birth.
Similar to fortune telling, there is another theory that many people believe, but it is actually very unreliable, called:
(2) Constellation theory.
To be sure, if it is not reliable to tell fortune by birth, it is even more nonsense to divide people's personality into 12 constellations. The reason why the constellation theory is believed by many people is that there is a more obvious reason besides the three reasons mentioned above. We call it the Barnum effect.
The so-called Barnum effect is that the description of a person's personality is general, which makes most people feel that this description is particularly suitable for him. Even if this description is empty, it is still considered to reflect their own personality, even if they are not such people at all.
For example, there is a description like this: "You pray to be loved by others, but you find fault with yourself. Although there are some defects in personality, on the whole, you can make up for them. You have considerable untapped potential, but you haven't developed your advantages yet. The seemingly tough, strict and self-disciplined appearance hides inner anxiety and uneasiness. 」
This sentence is a personality test conducted by psychologist Bertram Forer in 1948, and analyzed according to the test results. After the test, the students scored a minimum of 0 points and a maximum of 5 points on the fit between the test results and their own characteristics. He sent this description to all the students, and the average score was 4.26.
After careful analysis of these descriptions, it is not difficult to find that these words are actually accurate for most people-this is the essence of constellation theory. When you find a description similar to yours, you will believe it easily, and then believe it more and more according to the aforementioned pygmalion effect. Finally, your character is controlled by others.
More interestingly, the constellation theory itself is an outdated thing. Astronomically speaking, the constellation of 2 1 century is completely different from the past, not only the time has shifted, but also the number has become 13!
(3) Welfare lottery is predictable.
Are the lottery numbers of welfare lottery regular? Yes The two basic rules are:
All the "hot numbers", "cold numbers" and scientific predictions are lies. This kind of lottery, unless someone tampered with the lottery machine (which involves conspiracy theory), is irregular.
Of course, not all lottery tickets are unpredictable. Football lottery and basketball lottery, which are used to predict the results of the game, have certain predictability because they bring "extra information" (the strength and status of both sides of the game, etc.). ). Predicting the result of the competition through strength may have the possibility of long-term benefit, but buying lottery tickets is really just luck.
There are many pseudosciences and scams in society, which are as dazzling as "dazzling". Coupled with some obscene and nonsense things, there are also many people who believe and spread it, especially on some websites with high degree of freedom that tend to be entertaining. It can be said that the online home has become a garbage concentration camp.
Personally, I am extremely disgusted with any pseudoscience. Whenever I pick up a pen to expose these scams, there will be a raging anger in my chest, which can even be said to be a hatred of unhealthy trends.
Whenever I see someone who is stubborn and tries to hit a goal, shamelessly describing science as "superstition" is tantamount to describing light as darkness, especially when I see researchers like Liu Xiaoqing and Chen Junshi who work hard for the benefit of the country and people, struggle endlessly, and strive to compete with foreign countries for popular science knowledge. Such a group of the loveliest people in the world were insulted by ignorant people.
It is the motherland that supports them to dress, study and grow. When I grow up, I don't take the right path to serve the motherland, but I do evil on the Internet, pick up the keyboard and throw sewage at researchers.
I really want to be lightning and split this black one! ! !
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