20 17 house prices will plummet fortune telling _20 17 house prices will fall.

20 17 China property market changed greatly. Should I buy or sell a house?

In 20 16, the property market across the country experienced a real estate carnival. After the introduction of regulatory policies, the property market in several cities has cooled down. 20 17 how will the China property market go? Should I buy or sell a house?

First, the overall market has obviously cooled down, and real estate has entered a new era.

It must be emphasized that when thinking about real estate in China, we must realize that the environment and factor endowments of real estate development have undergone tremendous changes: the high growth cycle of economy, currency and international capital has ended. This determines that the future trend of China real estate market must be different from the past 18. We need to bid farewell to the past 18 real estate market.

However, we should also remember that there are still three cycles that have not ended: the cycle of urbanization in China has not ended, the era of the combination of financial capital and land capital in China has not ended, and the economy's dependence on real estate has not ended. These are the three important supports that China's real estate will not fall off a cliff, and the fundamental reason why China has not entered the so-called post-real estate era.

The status of real estate as a pillar industry will never change! Yes, forever. Look at the United States. It has been more than 70 years since urbanization, but real estate is still the most important industry in the United States. However, the path of real estate and the future competition mode are undergoing subversive changes. We will see many conformist housing enterprises fall, at least 80% of real estate enterprises will disappear, and fewer and fewer enterprises specialize in real estate.

Second, the policy only seems to be very strict, and the policy is not the key to the trend of housing prices.

The housing price trend of 20 17 does not depend on the regulation cycle starting from 2065438+06 "9.30", but is subject to the development cycle of the real estate itself. The policy is only to actively pick out hidden risks and take the initiative to cool down. Even if no control measures are introduced, the market will automatically cool down.

It should be pointed out that the sentence "the house is for living, not for speculation" does not reveal too many harsh measures. The policy of curbing real estate speculation has always existed, and real estate speculation is not an important reason for the skyrocketing housing prices in 20 16. The fundamental reason is that the extremely loose real estate policy and the half-hearted monetary policy have greatly promoted the expectation of rising. Real estate speculation is the result, not the cause. Curbing real estate speculation will only change short-term expectations, not long-term expectations.

The understanding of real estate policy should be based on the general tone of 20 17 macro policy. 20 17 macro policy has raised "stability" and "risk" to unprecedented heights, which means that real estate policy will never severely crack down on real estate. 20 17 China did not suppress real estate capital. The policy emphasizes "preventing big ups and downs". From the real estate cycle, the focus is on "rising" rather than "falling", because 20 17 has no basis for real estate growth.

Some cities have made it clear that "no increase from the previous month" and "no increase from the previous month" in 20 17 may become the adjustment targets for many cities to follow. The chain price will change the short-term investment expectation and win time for the long-term mechanism in the future. The final performance of 20 17 house price is still due to the cycle of real estate itself.

Third, the land market has cooled sharply, and the fate of many "land kings" is unpredictable.

In 20 16, the national land transfer income should not exceed 3.5 trillion yuan, which is lower than the peak income of 4.2 trillion yuan in 20 14. However, in 20 16, hot cities "land kings" appeared frequently, and there were not only more than 300 "land kings" in the country, but also the floor price rose sharply compared with the surrounding housing prices. Considering the cooling of the overall real estate market in 20 17 and the pressure of falling house price increase, the high-priced "land king" will put greater pressure on some highly leveraged housing enterprises. Judging from the fate of the "land kings" in previous real estate regulation cycles, the "land kings" all made money in the end, most of them lost money to earn money, and many of them were coming to a bad end. If the current real estate adjustment cycle is more than two years, the fate of many "land kings" produced by 20 16 is unpredictable.

Fourth, the real estate tax will not be introduced, and a large-scale pilot is also a small probability.

When I analyze the trend of housing prices in China, I never mention property tax. The reason is very simple, that is, I think the probability of its introduction in the short term is equal to zero. Real estate tax is an extremely complicated reform matter, involving many problems, which have been fully expounded in the previous article.

For real estate tax legislation, in the long run, the tax and fee reform in China's real estate sector is necessary. Through the overall design, there is nothing wrong with how to adjust the current tax and fee system and bring it into a unified real estate tax. However, real estate tax legislation needs to solve the focus of public concern. For example, the purpose of expropriation, such as the relationship with land transfer fees, such as how to solve land property rights after 70 years, and so on. If these problems are not solved, the property tax will not be introduced.

At the same time, I must tell you that whether the house price rises or not is mainly expected, not tax. Property tax can't restrain the rise of house prices, which has been proved by the practice in many countries. For example, both Shanghai and Chongqing are experimenting with property taxes. It's hard to explain why housing prices in Shanghai have soared while those in Chongqing have been so stable. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has sent a message to encourage local governments to innovate on real estate taxes and other issues. I don't think there will be too many local governments with this willingness to innovate. I won't lose my watermelon to pick up sesame seeds.

Fifth, there will be no significant progress in the construction of a long-term mechanism

The Central Economic Work Conference proposed that we should comprehensively use financial, land, fiscal, taxation, investment, legislation and other means to accelerate the study and establishment of basic systems and long-term mechanisms that conform to national conditions and adapt to market rules, curb the real estate bubble and prevent ups and downs.

Of course, the long-term mechanism is the key to the stable development of real estate and the return to normal, but the construction of the long-term mechanism is by no means overnight. To truly establish a long-term real estate mechanism in China, it is necessary to reinvent many past real estate policies, define the responsibility boundary between the government and the market on the basis of clarifying the basic concept of real estate, and build a new system of credit, taxation, land and finance around housing as the starting point of basic livelihood needs.

Even the existing housing management agencies have to be rebuilt. This requires at least one government term. It is estimated that there will be no substantial progress in the launch of the long-term mechanism in 20 17, but after the unified registration of real estate is completed, the number of houses is basically clear and the real estate tax legislative Council is accelerated.

6. Should I buy or sell a house?

This is a very risky question, but it must be answered.

First of all, as far as the short cycle of real estate is concerned, the adjustment of 20 17 is a high probability, and real estate is definitely not an important choice for 20 17 investment. Pay attention to two risks: market and policy.

Secondly, from 2065438 to June 2007, we can pay attention to the adjustment of market and policy, and predict and correct the trend in the second half of the year according to the adjustment of market and policy. If you invest in real estate in the first half of the year, the risk is great; But if it's children's enrollment or something, there's no way out. There is no need to consider the return on investment or risk at all, because delaying the children is the biggest risk. Third, I still call on high net worth individuals to reduce their holdings of domestic real estate. The fundamental reason is that I am worried that the exchange rate and capital outflow will lead to the adjustment and revaluation of China's asset prices, which may be the biggest risk of 20 17 real estate. But this is only for high net worth people, at least three houses.

Fourthly, if the fundamentals of China's economy and real estate have not changed greatly, some safe cities can consider buying houses after June. Guangzhou, Xi 'an, Chongqing, Kunming and Nanning mentioned before, as well as Dalian and Ningbo, where the price increase of 20 16 is not big, can continue to pay attention.

Finally, it needs to be pointed out that for China, a country with a large population, a big currency and an emerging country in the process of urbanization, high-quality urban resources have been scarce in this country for quite some time. Choosing a high-quality city and living in a proper place is an important part of China's economic transformation and upgrading. In this regard, the big cycle of real estate is not over yet, but the recklessness of youth and the jungle era have ended.

(The above answers were published on 2017-01-18. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )

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