Why can't we predict the future?

From ancient times to the present, all civilizations have a tradition of divination or fortune telling; Now, we have data and statistical models that can help us understand the future. However, if we don't care about our own equipment, most of us are very bad at predicting what will happen, which is the result of human brain connection. Generally speaking, the mode of thinking that affects the way we think, make decisions and interact with others is called cognitive bias. These prejudices also distort our views on what happens in elections, economy and daily life, whether we are looking forward to the next 50 years or 50 minutes.

? According to DonMoore, a professor of organizational behavior at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, this is not all bad news. He said: "Listening to psychologists like me talk about people's lack of perfect rational way, it is easy to produce a depressing message." "But you can also see that the glass is half full." Humans are far from perfect in this respect, but we are still the best future forecasters on this planet. "Yes, we are not perfect in calculating future gains and losses. On the other hand, we are better at this than chimpanzees. "

Another good news is that at least to some extent, you can overcome your cognitive prejudice. The first step is to be able to recognize them and know when you are most susceptible. From there, you can try to make your brain better. ?

First, the deviation of hindsight.

? Ironically, one thing that hinders our ability to foresee the future is that we tend to believe that we already have it, or at least we should have it. The prejudice of hindsight is that we tend to make past memories more predictable than the past.

? Sometimes, this means that we are back to believing what will happen. The election of 20 16 is a powerful example; The initial shock reaction was accompanied by countless "we always knew" ideas. Research shows that no matter what our real-time prediction is, once we know the result, we are likely to improve the accuracy of the original prediction by 20%. In this incomplete version of the past, things are easier to predict and we understand them more clearly.

? At other times, hindsight means deceiving ourselves that we missed the obvious.

Moore said: "When we look back and say,' Oh, I should have known this would happen.' We became victims of ex post facto prejudice. ""We think that if we are smart enough, we should be able to predict the future. " ? Either way, you can fight against prejudice after the fact by preparing in advance. By considering all the potential consequences of a given scenario, you are less likely to consider what is inevitable when this is not the case.

Second, optimism, prejudice or wishful thinking.

? We all want to do good for ourselves. We are willing to believe that these things are possible. However, we often rely too much on this point, thinking that no matter what happens, things will be solved for ourselves in the future, and the possibility of bad things happening is far lower than others.

? Moore pointed out that research shows that visualizing your ideal state can make you more optimistic about your ability to achieve your ideal. He said: "Sometimes you will hear some suggestions. You have to imagine yourself and your environment as you want. " This is wishful thinking in textbooks. Although it does make you more optimistic about your future, visualization alone can't really improve it. ?

We all want to do good for ourselves. We are willing to believe that these things are possible. But we tend to rely too much on this. "Think of yourself as rich or thin, or anyone who is unlikely to change your living environment. But if this involves planning and you imagine yourself doing well in exams or sports competitions, then you have the motivation to study or train, which is different. "

He said. "Then, you have to make yourself work hard and really achieve your goals."

Third, hyperbolic discount deviation

RichardThaler, the Nobel laureate in economics, initiated a classic experiment, asking people to choose between getting money immediately and waiting for a larger amount. For example, when asked "Do you want $65,438+000 now or $65,438+020 a week?" "Most people choose instant payment. However, if the timeline is lengthened-"a year 100 dollars or a week 120 dollars?" Most people are willing to wait one more week to get extra income. ?

Hyperbolic discount is a cognitive prejudice, which makes it difficult for us to see ourselves and ourselves in the future. This is why we prefer short-term happiness to long-term return; Why do we sit on the sofa and watch Netflix on Monday night, no matter what it means to Tuesday's to-do list? Why should you retire and save money? Just like taking money out of your pocket and giving it to strangers now, thinking about bringing impossible benefits to yourself in the future?

The solution is simple: know yourself in the future. Hal Hershfield, a psychologist at UCLA, is a professor who studies the influence of time on judgment. He asked his students to look at their age photos before making financial decisions to challenge their exaggerated discount bias. In order to imitate this effect, try to imagine a mental image of yourself on the road. ?

Moore said: "After seeing the photos, people are more likely to make decisions that are beneficial to them." "We are more generous and compassionate to people we know." ?

Your future self will be grateful for this.