College letter 666: "Positive verification" is our instinct.

When exploring and looking for accurate information, we will subconsciously satisfy the idea that we are right and search for evidence to support our position.

Take Peter Watson's famous experiment as an example, a * * * has four cards, one is letters and the other is numbers. If you want to test this hypothesis: one side of the card is vowel and the other side is even, which cards should you play?

Most people will choose cards with vowels on their faces, such as the first "a"; Then open the second "2", first verify whether the reverse side of A is an even number, and then verify whether the reverse side of 2 is a vowel. This is because we are used to "positive testing" to deal with problems. We will test the results of the hypothesis first, instead of looking for the results of overthrowing the hypothesis.

What we want to verify is the fourth "7", because if 7 is followed by vowels, then the assumption that vowels are followed by even numbers is no longer valid; If 7 is not followed by a vowel, you need to verify the "a" on 1. Because what we want to verify is not "even number is the vowel at the back", we don't need to pay attention to the second "2".

It is our instinct to get used to the positive test, but it will also be used.

For example, fortune tellers are said to be accurate. He said a bunch of things about our past, and we will automatically search for matching information in our memory, and then find that he is really accurate.

For example, some stock recommendation experts will deliberately package themselves badly. Let's look at the stocks he pushed, and we will find that what he said can basically come true in nine cases out of ten.

For example, the so-called best-selling book "From Excellent to Excellent" summarizes some essential genes about excellent listed companies, and then we use these genes to form the best companies at present, and find that they have these elements more or less.

Conclusion.

① We will ignore the blind spot of "positive verification", but we can also use it in reverse. To make others believe us, we can establish a positive image first, and then the other party will instinctively test the hypothesis that "he is a good man."

② For some important things, reverse verification is needed. Might as well find a known charlatan to see if he also has these "master" qualities and find some bankrupt enterprises to see if they also have the "excellent to excellent" gene?

I wish everyone a happy life.