Who is behind Paul the octopus? How to manipulate it?

Chapter 1 Gambling companies play tricks

The World Cup in South Africa is over, but the topic surrounding an octopus continues. This octopus, kept in Oberhausen Aquarium in Germany, predicted many matches in the World Cup and hit a high percentage. This is an ingenious marketing plan, which ignited the business of the aquarium and made fans all over the world stunned, sad and happy.

Speaking of animal fortune-telling, people who know the fortune-telling of yellow birds in Dashilan, old Beijing, will not be surprised. This is nothing more than a deceptive trick trained by using animals' diet, smell and visual habits. Octopus likes to eat oysters. If you want the octopus to climb into the glass box, just put its favorite oyster. To put it bluntly, this is the old Beijing jargon-a work of genuine fish. It is not difficult to train octopus to play with fishy smell, but it is absolutely high-tech to know in advance which country the octopus climbs into. Paul the octopus has no magic. Aquarium is a master of public relations planning at best. So who is really behind this?

Take Spain as an example. Most veterans who are familiar with losing in the Asian Games and Europe made the judgment of losing in Spain (betting on Spanish handicap) and betting on the Netherlands in the early stage (after the bookmakers made a formal bet), which can be seen from the blogs and recommendations of some experts. However, when the aquarium released the image of Paul climbing into the glass jar in Spain, many people's confidence was instantly shattered and they made the choice of going to Spain or waiting or giving up. Yes, I can't live without octopus as raw seafood.

Encouraged by Squidward Tentacles Paul, some people changed their betting direction, while some unbelievers continued to stick to Holland. But in any case, this has broken the original betting model. Macau Gaming Co., Ltd. opened an Asian handicap for Spain and gave the hemisphere of the game to the Netherlands. According to the gambling rules, Spain must win at least 1 goal from the Netherlands within a regular time of 90 minutes before betting on Spain will be profitable. If you draw within 90 minutes, even if Spain wins in overtime or penalty shootout, you will lose all the money you bet on Spain. Whoever wins the championship has nothing to do with winning or losing the bet.

When it was learned that Squidward Tentacles had chosen Spain, some people who had been optimistic about the Dutch championship began to worry that their judgment would go against the wishes of "Master Paul". However, Mr. Paul did not say whether Spain won the championship in 90 minutes or through overtime or penalty shootout. Suppose I buy a Dutch handicap, Spain won't guarantee that I will destroy the Netherlands within the regular time, or I buy a Spanish handicap and postpone it to overtime or penalty. Isn't that because others win the championship and we lose money ourselves? The faith of professional players began to waver.

Let's take a look at Paul the octopus's prediction statistics:

Prediction of this World Cup:

1, Germany 4- 1 England: Paul octopus climbed into the glass jar in Germany for 8 seconds.

2. Germany 0- 1 Serbia: Paul the octopus hesitated and climbed into the glass jar in Serbia.

3. Germany 1-0 Ghana: Paul the octopus did not hesitate to press most of his body into a glass jar in Germany.

4, Germany 4-0 Australian octopus Paul also chose Germany in a relatively short period of time.

5. Netherlands 2- 1 Brazil: Paul the octopus firmly supports the orange army and sends five-star Brazil back to his hometown.

6. Germany 4-0 Argentina: Paul Squidward Tentacles made a hard choice for an hour and finally chose the German flag.

7. Germany 0- 1 Spain: Paul the octopus gave up the German glass jar for the second time.

8. Spain 1-0 Netherlands: Octopus once again correctly chose Spain to win the championship.

Euro 2008: 5 out of 6; Predictive success rate: 83%

Germany beats Poland in the first round of the group match. Prediction: Germany wins 2-0.

Prediction of Germany losing to Croatia in the second round of group stage: Germany 1-2 losing.

Prediction of Germany's victory over Austria at the end of the group stage: Germany 1-0.

1/4 The final forecast is that Germany wins Portugal. The result is that Germany wins 3-2.

Germany beat Turkey in the semi-final. Result: Germany won 3-2.

It is predicted that Germany will beat Spain in the final. The result is Germany 0- 1.

Paul Octopus can make more than 80% accurate predictions about uncertain football matches. Although most of the competitions are related to Germany, it has also impacted all major events such as the battle between Pakistan and the Netherlands, and the championship battle between West Germany and the Netherlands. Using real money and such a "prediction master" PK requires a strong psychological quality. No wonder most gamblers, including some experts, lose confidence because of jumping off a boat. After the disintegration of the professional players' camp, those Spanish fans who never look at the odds of the handicap and players who buy entertainment bets will follow the octopus and throw chips at Spain without hesitation. The chips that occupy the majority are pouring into the Spanish handicap.

The result of this game, as predicted by some gamblers before the game, was a 90-minute stalemate between the two sides. Spain won the championship by relying on Iniesta's winning goal in extra time, and Paolo Squidward Tentacles's magical World Cup tour was also in full swing. Those players who were bewitched and gave up their original intention were heartbroken, while a few players who stood their ground and attacked Holland were overjoyed after 90 minutes of fear. Paul won again, the aquarium became more popular, the gambling company made a lot of money, but the gamblers were happy and worried.

After the game, the author learned from a friend in a big village in Southeast Asia that on the day of the game, the proportion of chips bought from Spain (upper plate) and the Netherlands (lower plate) in the early stage was 58%: 42%. Generally speaking, the chips in the upper and lower positions in the early stage are relatively balanced, and Spain's slightly higher chips are also based on the team's technical level and popularity. About two hours before the game, that is to say, after Paul Squidward Tentacles predicted that Spain would win the championship, the ratio of up and down handicap suddenly became 65%: 35%, and the odds of winning the championship were rarely bet from beginning to end. From this situation, it is not difficult to see that if Spain wins within 90 minutes, Southeast Asian villages will face huge losses, and their betting scale is only a fraction of the top gambling companies in Europe and Asia. Obviously, this is not only a contest between Spain and the Netherlands, but also a game between the whole gambling industry and gamblers all over the world. Speaking of which, it is not hard to imagine that there will be a gambling company behind Paul Squidward Tentacles. At least, Paul Squidward Tentacles's so-called prediction has had a great impact on changing the flow of betting chips in the World Cup, which can be used by the gambling industry as the most effective tool to amass huge gambling interests.

In previous World Cups, from the group stage to the promotion stage, the amount of bets will increase with the importance of the event, and in the final stage, the amount of betting chips will reach its peak. In this competition alone, Macau Lottery Company won a total prize of HK$ 800 million. Whether professional gamblers or recreational gamblers, the betting finals are full of infinite temptations. For gaming companies, this will also be their last battle to complete the big business of the World Cup. Regardless of the winning or losing of the previous dozens of games, at least in this game, gamblers who have made money before should rummage through their pockets and then pounce on rabbits to collect those entertainment bets. This is the highest professional ideal of comrades engaged in gambling, and there is no room for loss. Under the guidance of this theme, they hide behind the little octopus, play with gamblers and set a maze for you for 90 minutes. Why not? Brother H, the author's good friend, worked in Hong Kong and earned more than 200,000 Hong Kong dollars from the beginning of the group stage to 1\4. He was originally optimistic about the penalty shootout, but before the game started, last stand took out all the profits to buy Spanish handicap. The result can be imagined. After the game, Lao H sent a short message: "My buddy can't wait to buy a plane ticket to Germany and bake octopus with his grandson." However, what's wrong with a small octopus just wanting to eat oysters for aphrodisiac?

Spain got the wish of Hercules, and the comrades of the gaming company also made a fortune. Looking back at previous World Cups, France beat Brazil with Cristiano Ronaldo, but Brazil could not find North Korea. Germany won the Asian championship in a state of complete victory, and decadent Italy accidentally kissed Hercules. How many world champions are really popular? If we can really achieve the expected goal, I'm afraid the end of the gambling industry is coming. The World Cup is a capital war without smoke!