Do you know what the stock market will be like in 2022?

How long will the stock market crash last four times in 2022?

(1) 65438+May 0992-1992165438+10. In October, the Shanghai Composite Index fell from 1429 to 400, which lasted for five months, with the biggest drop of 72%.

(2) 65438+February 0993-65438+July 0994, the Shanghai Composite Index fell from 1553 to 325 points, which lasted for 18 months, with the largest drop of 79%.

(3) From 2007 165438+ 10 to 2008/0/0, the Shanghai Composite Index fell from 6 124 to 1664, which lasted for1.

(4) From June 2015 to June 20 16 to June 20 16, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped from 5 178 to 2,638, which lasted for 8 months, with the largest drop of 49.05%.

202 1-2022 should be a big bull market cycle, and the blue book of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences predicts that 202 1-2025 will reach 5000 points.

As we all know, since 1994, there has been a stock market crash every seven years, that is, the big bull market peaked. The points of 2008 Olympic Games 1994, 200 1, 6 124 were impressive. Starting from 20 15, the next time is 2022.

According to this rule, the top of the big bull market will appear in 2022, followed by the stock market crash. This means that before 2022, the high probability is a bull market. There is no doubt that the stock market is cyclical, but we can find that, on the whole, the general trend is upward, and a record-high bull market in the stock market may be on the way.

The highest point in 2007 is 6 124, 20 15, and the highest point in 2007 is 5 178, 202 1 year is more than 3,730. From the end of 20 18, this bull market trend has lasted for two and a half years. From the lowest 2440 to now, the increase has actually exceeded 50%, which is considered a slow cow. It has reached a critical moment. Since the bottom of the main force, the layout has been basically completed, and it is difficult to ship without the main rising wave. The stock market is actually one cycle to another, with bulls and bears alternating. So this bull market is not over, and the bullish trend of the monthly line is very obvious. Generally speaking, it will hit a record high again, probably in 2022.

A-shares will have a big bull market every eight years, before 1999, 2007, 20 15, with an interval of eight years. According to the calculation, the next time should be around 2023. The so-called "all say" that the stock market in 2022 is a big bull market, and it is still too early to say.

Any big bull market has two prerequisites:

One is that the central bank has implemented a loose monetary policy, which has released abundant liquidity to the market, so that the market is not short of money and the stock market can be driven up by money. This did happen in 2020, but due to special reasons, there was a structural market. Obviously, the central bank is very cautious about releasing liquidity. Once the economy stabilizes, the central bank will consider shrinking the currency. After the epidemic was controlled in June last year, the central bank stopped cutting interest rates, and social financing in June 65438+February has turned around.

Another condition is that the economy shows signs of improvement, which determines the sustainability of the stock market. In 20 15, due to the interest rate cuts by the central bank and RRR for many times, the market liquidity was abundant and the stock market began a bull market trend. However, because the economy has not fundamentally improved, the bull market is fierce and short-lived, and the ups and downs are almost cliff-like.

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