Open the book Thinking, Fast and Slow.

This book topped the list of Amazon for 265,438+0 weeks in a row.

The writer is Nobel Prize winner Kahneman.

People think they can control their own thinking, but in fact our thinking mode is often influenced by intangible factors. Make mistakes.

By then, we can know how to make choices in the face of problems in the workplace and life, and how to avoid falling into the trap of our own misjudgment.

The structure of this book

One.

What are the characteristics of our thinking mode?

Second, what kind of mistakes will these characteristics make our thinking mode make?

Three,

How can we improve our thinking mode and reduce prejudice and mistakes?

First of all, let's talk about the characteristics of human thinking mode.

In fact, there are two thinking systems in our brains.

The author named them System 1 and System 2.

Unity is also called fast thinking, and system 2 is also called slow thinking.

Thinking is like the brain's automatic response mode, which will simplify life, but we don't have to wake up every morning thinking about how to dress, how to brush our teeth and how to squeeze toothpaste.

Reducing the brain power loss of our brain in life can make us react quickly 2+7=9. When we encounter the number 25×56, it will be blocked immediately, and we can't give an answer immediately. Everything that makes him raise money will be handed over to System 2, that is, slow thinking and slow thinking. After receiving the help of quick thinking, he will allocate his brain's attention to thinking about the problems he encounters and concentrate on dealing with them. All the operations of the slow exam need to be focused. Once the attention is distracted, the operations will be dispersed, just like when you are walking, you can say something casually, and when others ask you to solve a complicated problem, you will often find that your steps have stopped.

People who think slowly are very cautious and have reasoning ability, and the conclusions he draws from the operation are often more reliable than those who think quickly.

But thinking slowly is lazy. He generally doesn't take the initiative to interfere with the work of quick thinking unless he thinks quickly and asks for help.

This determines that when we deal with things, we always think quickly and stand up first, instead of thinking directly and slowly. Therefore, when quick thinking can deal with problems and give answers, it is nothing for Manscom. This mode of cooperation makes their cooperation very efficient. When they can solve the problem with the least effort, they will never spend more effort. It sounds beautiful, but there is something wrong with his thinking, although he will make a correct judgment many times. But it is easy to make mistakes in some specific links, and you may not believe it. Let's give an example. A tennis racket is a tennis ball 1 100 yuan, and a tennis racket is more expensive than tennis 1000 yuan. So how much is tennis? Say you haven't seen this problem before. You will have a strong intuition immediately. Tennis 100 yuan. Unfortunately, however. This is a wrong intuition. The reason why you have this intuition is precisely because your quick thinking has brought you wrong judgment. If you think carefully with your slow mind, you will find that the correct answer is tennis 50 yuan.

Speaking of this, some people may say that since you think slowly, you will often make mistakes in some circumstances. Then I just need to think slowly and don't worry. Isn't that great? Sorry, I can't. Why not? Because fast thinking belongs to you, but you can't turn it off completely. You can only correct and suppress him with dull thinking at most. For example, in the dead of night, when a person watches a horror movie. Your dull mind will tell you that these horrible scenes are fake. This is a movie, don't be afraid. However, your quick thinking will keep sending you signals. It's terrible. Run. At this time, you will find that although you can find that it is not good to control yourself, there is no way to make you think quickly and stop being afraid.

In human decision-making mode, both fast thinking and slow thinking will play a role, but due to the inertia of fast thinking, fast testing often dominates, and the intuition of fast thinking is that the thinking mode will lead to many prejudices and mistakes in our thinking process.

Next, let's take a look at what kind of prejudice and mistakes will appear in our thinking mode when fast thinking is dominant.

Kahneman made a very in-depth study on the prejudice and mistakes caused by intuition.

Four preferences and three effects are analyzed.

Can be called the seven deadly sins of quick thinking.

First crime, typical preference.

People will pay too much attention to typical events and ignore typical probability.

Such an experimenter asked a person to read a newspaper in the subway and let people around him guess his education.

Most people guess that he is a doctor without thinking.

It is unwise to say this answer, of course, because there is a great difference in the number of people with doctoral degrees and those without university degrees. But reading newspapers makes people ignore the basic probability.

This is the prejudice caused by typical preference.

Second crime.

Usability preference.

If something is more likely to appear in the brain, then people will think it is more likely to happen.

For example, if there was an air crash last month, people would be more inclined to drive or take the train.

If you rely on rationality, you should carefully compare the accident probability of various means of transportation, but adapting to the reasons of preference will make you more inclined to make intuitive judgments instead of starting to think slowly and calculate the probability scientifically.

The third crime.

Causal preference

Think fast, there is a characteristic.

It likes to explain the cause and effect of events.

But his explanation is not necessarily reasonable.

For example, a fortune teller tells you that you will encounter unpleasant things in the next month. In fact, in the next month, you will always encounter something smooth or not, but think of the fortune teller's words after a while.

Your quick thinking will subconsciously support him and instinctively search for unsatisfactory things in your mind. In this way, you will feel that his calculation is very accurate, but after rational thinking, you will find that what fortune-tellers say is often very general and vague.

The fourth sin.

Halo effect.

When you come into contact with some information about things, this information will affect your overall judgment.

I have an experiment. Suppose there are two people, one is a lover and the other is Ben.

They say something first, and then let you make some comments on them.

Maybe put the positive words first, then the negative words.

This description puts derogatory words in front and commendatory words in the back.

Everyone will think. Allen is a good man, but also a bad man.

In fact, the difference is only the order in which you know them. .

Think quickly. Prejudice on the information you know first.

This is the prejudice caused by halo effect.

The fifth crime.

Anchoring effect.

It means that before you evaluate every unknown thing, you will estimate a reference answer, which is called the anchor value, and then adjust it. Ships sailing on the sea are all furry. They are used to repair ships. The Maori effect is like fur that sinks to the bottom of the sea, fixing people's minds somewhere.

Such an experimenter asked two questions to visitors to the museum. First, is the tallest redwood tree higher than 1200 feet or lower than 1200 feet? Second, how tall do you think the tallest redwood tree is? The question of 1 is raised by 1200 feet, which will have an impact on people's minds and become the anchor value when answering the second question. Under this anchor value, the average answer of tourists to the second question is 842 feet, but if the number in 1 question is changed to 180, the average answer of the second question is changed to 220 feet.

It is a contradiction worth changing, which has greatly changed the judgment of customers.

It is the influence of anchor values on people that makes the answer change a lot.

The sixth sin, frame effect, refers to different descriptions of the same problem, which will make you make completely different decision-making judgments.

A company decided not to pay bonuses this year because of losses. The boss asked the directors of three branches to inform the employees respectively.

Director Yi said that the loss bonus will not be issued this year.

After the meeting, all the employees cursed the director.

Director b told everyone that this year's loss bonus will not be distributed, and there will be layoffs. I will try not to lay off employees.

After the meeting, all the employees were very happy.

The driver's factory director told everyone that this year's loss bonus could not be paid, and I was going to lay off staff.

After the meeting, many employees gave President Xi red envelopes.

Frame effect tells us that smart decision makers often use frame effect to change the way of describing problems and minimize the risk value of decision-making. Make actions to produce different effects.

Seventh sin, aversion to loss.

Only when you have something, will you feel that it is more valuable, thus producing the happiness of buying things with money, which will be less than the pain of losing it. For example, if you buy an ice cream for 5 yuan, your mood will not fluctuate, but once the ice cream suddenly falls to the ground, you will feel very sad.

Because in fact, the value of ice cream in your heart is far more than 5 yuan.

The above seven deadly sins * * * illustrate a problem. The rapid thinking of human beings is the information input by the system with preconceived characteristics, which will occupy a dominant position in judgment and greatly affect our judgment.

Next, we will discuss how to improve the most important part. We think patterns and reduce prejudices and mistakes.

How to minimize prejudice and misjudgment? Improving the quality of judgment and thinking is a problem that we all care about. The author thinks that slow thinking is laziness. In order to make this lazy system diligent, we must deliberately prompt it, which can be self-prompting or external prompting. Just like a person who likes to sleep late, if he can't get up, he must get up on time, either set an alarm clock or wake him up when others arrive. This is an external hint.

In these two ways, external prompts are usually more effective.

This is related to a psychological characteristic of human beings.

For example, a couple cheated on a girl for many times, which is love rat in the eyes of discerning people, but the girl thinks that her boyfriend loves him and will not pay attention to other people's opinions. Facts have proved that external cues from onlookers are often more reliable than self-knowledge. This is the psychological principle behind China's idiom "The spectator sees clearly".

When you struggle and make your own decisions, there may not be many onlookers around you, but when you are in an organization, there will be many onlookers around you. These bystanders will help you correct your mistakes in quick thinking with others' slow thinking, so it is meaningful to discuss problems collectively.

Because it will open many people's slow thinking and reduce the prejudice and mistakes brought by fast thinking.

In this book, Carney also taught us a trick called ex ante autopsy.

This sounds a bit scary, but it is actually a conscious way to activate slow thinking.

To put it simply, when we make a decision about something, we first assume that it will fail, and then everyone writes down every possible cause of failure according to their own understanding, and ranks it according to importance and probability.

This can prevent these factors in advance and improve the success rate of work.

This method is very helpful for many decisions.

For example, some entrepreneurial teams will adopt a democratic system when making decisions. Many decisions are not made by the founder alone, but by several founders, or all of them express their opinions, and a decision will appear, but many seemingly democratic decisions are not completely objective. In the team, some attractive individuals or some team members deliberately flatter the leaders, which will be influenced by some people and lead to the convergence of opinions.

When the discussion of team decision is gradually biased towards the next side, most team members will be affected.

Therefore, it is easy for team roles to have a harmonious situation. Once the role is formed, it is easy for individuals to choose a team to show their consistency with the team.

The advantage of Academician Shi Quan is that he can arouse suspicion and let decision makers explore real dangers that they have not considered before.

It gives people a way to look at problems from many aspects. A prior autopsy may not completely perfect the plan, but at least it avoids stupid mistakes.

Or give the final decision makers some reminders of potential crises.

Whether listening to the opinions of onlookers or conducting a comprehensive test, there is only one purpose, so that slow thinking can play a role and try to avoid prejudice and mistakes brought by intuitive thinking of fast thinking.

I think this is especially suitable for short-term operation of the stock market, that is, quick thinking is dominant.

Enable slow thinking so that you won't regret your operation.

All in all,

No.65438 +0, there are two systems in human thinking mode, one is non-intuitive system, and slow thinking and fast thinking are intuitive systems.

In reality, due to the difficulty of slow thinking, fast thinking often becomes the master of thinking and decision-making.

The intuition of quick thinking is that quick thinking may lead to some prejudices and mistakes, which will put our thinking and decision-making at risk.

Thirdly, we can actively activate slow thinking through slow thinking, test the decision-making of fast thinking, conduct rational testing, and reduce prejudice and mistakes.

I think this explains our desperate operation in the transaction.

I believe that after reading this, you have made some changes in your thinking and understanding.

In fact, we are not always in a rational state. Many absurd behaviors happen at the moment when we think we are rational. We must take very effective measures to eliminate some ideological prejudices.

This book analyzes and discusses our thinking mechanism with a large number of cases and vivid language. Interested friends can read the original text.

This book will change your way of thinking. Except for him, your view of the work world and your life will change a little.

I hope today's sharing can give you some gains. I'm Xingbang.

I hope you like it. Thank you.