Fortune Telling Collection - Comprehensive fortune-telling - Someone's shooting percentage is 0.7, and he shoots 20 times in a row. What is the probability of shooting at least 0.9?
Someone's shooting percentage is 0.7, and he shoots 20 times in a row. What is the probability of shooting at least 0.9?
Shooting twice "the probability of hitting at least once" has already exceeded 0.9.
What is the definition of "hit rate at least 0.9" in the title here? Isn't it against someone's "hit rate" of 0.7? Can continuous shooting's hit rate be improved? If so, how to understand probability?
If the "hit rate" in the title is not for every shot, but for "only one shot in 20 consecutive shots", then the answer to this question is: 1 (extremely close).
If it refers to the single shot hit rate, then the probability that the 20-shot hit rate is at least 0.9 should be: 0 (unless the shooting technique is improved, that is another matter! )
Here, we should distinguish the probability and frequency of events, and should not confuse them! This is like, for example, the probability of a coin flip is 0.5, but the frequency of this event is not necessarily 0.5. For example, if it is tossed 10 times, it may appear 4 times, 5 times and 6 times ..., then the head-on frequencies of this event are 0.4, 0.5 and 0.6 respectively, but the probability remains unchanged at 0.5!
It is estimated that this problem is caused by confusing the conceptual differences between probability and frequency.
Guess the last "hit rate" of this question actually refers to the hit frequency rather than the probability. If so, the correct answer to this question is: 0.007637.
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