Redistribute Zhou Tianwang's Haowen

There are two pioneers in the important business cycle theory. The first is the Campo cycle, which is actually the decisive force of the global economic movement and the fundamental theory of life wealth planning for all of you here.

I have a famous saying that "life depends on Kangbo to make a fortune". This sentence means that each of us should never think about how capable you are when accumulating wealth. The accumulation of wealth comes entirely from the opportunity given to you by the time of economic cycle movement.

For example, in the past decade, the typical Chinese wealth was the coal boss. I believe everyone thinks that the coal boss is definitely not as capable as me. He became a coal boss because of the opportunity given by the weather. According to Kondratiev's theory, this is a bull market for commodities, which gives coal bosses a chance to make a fortune in life.

But can everyone here be a coal boss? It should be invisible in this life, which is described by its theory. Theoretically, a person can only get three chances in his life. If you don't seize every opportunity, you will definitely lose your life wealth. If you seize one of these opportunities, you can at least become a middle class.

What does this sentence mean? In other words, the wealth track of our life is traceable. The wealth track of life is the Kondratiev cycle. Let me introduce Kondratiev cycle to you first.

The longest cycle in the world economic cycle movement is the Kondratiev cycle once every 60 years. As we all know, 60 years old is a person's natural life expectancy is 60 years. China said that every 60 years is a cycle, and every cycle is a Kondratiev cycle. Divided into recovery, prosperity, decline, flute.

The next ten years are doomed to be spent in depression.

At present, the Kondratiev cycle is the transition point from recession to flute, and all of you here are destined to spend the next ten years in flute, which is an unchangeable law in Kondratiev.

In 20 17 years, everyone will know whether my judgment is right or not. I once judged in 2007 that 2008 will have the influence of Kondratiev's cyclical recession, that is, the subprime mortgage crisis that everyone saw.

20 14, 10 in June, I published a report, and there was a second shock in the second quarter of 20 15. After the second quarter, the stock market plummeted and the RMB depreciated regularly, and the movement of asset prices was by no means regular. Everyone could see it.

In the middle of 20 17, after the third quarter, we will see the asset prices in China and the United States all-round decline, reaching the final low point in 20 19. That low point may be much lower than everyone thinks. This is the Compaq theory that I can tell you now.

A Kangbo movement is driven by technological innovation. At this time, Kangbo began to pick up at 1982. As we all know, 1975 to 1982 is the last stage of Compaq flute.

If you know the history of the world economy, you should know that the global stagflation, the United States and Britain do supply-side reform. I think everyone is talking about supply-side reform in high spirits. Supply-side reform is a sign that the world has entered the flute. There seems to be no need to be cheerful. In fact, when it comes to supply-side reform, we must play the flute.

Prosperity is the information technology bubble in the United States from 199 1 to 1994, which is a symbol of Kangbo's prosperity. After the American bubble burst, the economy grew for another seven or eight years.

Therefore, before 2008, it was the golden stage of Compaq in the world economy. From 2004 to 20 15, it should be the decline period of this Kangbo. What we can see in the recession is that although the economic growth is not so good, we can still get great significance from asset prices, which everyone can feel. For example, since 2009, our stock market and bond market, from a big perspective, have both gone up and made profits. This is the decline stage of Compaq.

Know what I mean after 3.20 18.

Last year, I made a judgment that 20 15 is an important turning point in the global economy and asset prices. These six years, I will talk about it in the second half. In the past six years, one indicator of investment has been the central bank. If the central banks in the United States and China continue to release water, you will have money to catch it. This is the only goal of investment in the past six years, that is, easing.

It's impossible for everyone to release water this year. This is the transition point of asset prices. I think everyone is talking about the asset shortage last year. Asset shortage means that I have a lot of money, but I have no rate of return. This is a very dangerous signal. This is a turning point. The inflection point means that the overall return on assets in the next four to five years will not only make money, but may even lose money.

At the end of last year, my advice to various institutions was to prepare for the psychological expectation that the rate of return on assets will be greatly reduced, and at the same time, to prepare for the possible liquidity crisis in the future of 20 17-20 19.

I think today's meeting is very good. Why? Because I think if you can issue bonds more times now, you should feel the significance of attending today's meeting by 20 19. I advise you, for example, if you want to issue bonds, it is best to issue them for five years, and you will feel what I mean after 20 18.

4. Two ways to eliminate the wealth of the middle class

After 20 15, the world should enter the stage of Kangbo flute. What will happen before Compaq's flute arrives? I believe everyone has seen this phenomenon. We feel that there is a lot of liquidity in our hands. Everyone has made money by speculating in stocks in the past six years, and everyone has stopped making money at 20 15.

What shall we do? I need to preserve the value of my money, so everyone thought of a way to buy real estate in the core area of first-tier cities. The second way is to engage in some emerging industries, and many people have invested in many new three boards. From my heart, these two methods are both ways to eliminate the wealth of the middle class.

My own investment discipline is not to buy a house after 20 14. Now is the rebound stage of China's real estate cycle, that is, there is only a slight increase, so what you see must be a bear market rebound. What do we do? People who sell, people who shouldn't buy, and people who speculate in stocks all understand the simplest truth. So now it should be the real estate cash-out stage.

The second emerging industry sought after by everyone, because I studied long wave theory, I can see clearly that the so-called internet plus is actually the technological innovation of Compaq and the last mature stage of information technology.

As we all know, information technology broke out in the 1980s, and in the 1990s, it was launched in the leading countries in the United States. When technology spread from leading countries to China, and China was the pursuer of this round of Campo, it spread to China and every corner of life, so what do you think is the future of this technology?

A technology must have reached the last stage of its life cycle when it has reached omnipotence in catching up with the penetration of the country, and this technology is followed by the trend of maturity and decline.

So, last year, I told my friends that 20 16 and 20 17 were the redemption stages of the New Third Board. Whether it can be saved depends on your fate. This matter is beyond my control. Don't think you have to cash it.

When you see these two phenomena, it means that Compaq will enter the flute period, and you will suddenly find that after experiencing a stagflation, 20 16 to 20 17 is stagflation, and once stagflation finds that the assets with poor liquidity in hand may not be needed.

After this stage, it will enter the currency elimination mechanism, that is, the prices of these assets will fall, which is what Compaq theory tells us.

Every flute sound of Kangbo is stagflation, and after stagflation is the stage of eliminating inflation. So in the future, people may suddenly feel that their current assets are not enough or gone. This is also the reason why everyone issues bonds quickly. You can have cash flow and even buy assets at the current low price. By 2025, this will be the fifth stage of Kangbo flute.

The fourth Compaq flute was 1970, and the third was 1920, which was an American flute. Compaq's theory describes the long-term operation of the world economy.

People over the age of 5.40 will get a second chance on 20 19.

As a person, how to plan your life wealth in this process? According to my long-term research, your life opportunities are basically given by Kangbo's sports.

It's not very important that you got a job in CITIC Securities ten years ago. It is really important for everyone to buy a house next to CITIC Jiantou Securities ten years ago, because CITIC Jiantou is located in Chaoyangmen, Beijing, and now the house has risen tenfold, and everyone can't earn it in ten years. The wealth of life depends not on wages, but on your investment in asset prices.

Is your investment in asset prices a time rule? It must be bought at a low price. There is no point in buying a house at this time. In a person's 60-year-old life, he participated in economic life for 30 years. In the past 30 years, Kangbo has only given you three opportunities to get rich, regardless of your subjective will.

People over 40 had their first chance in life in 2008. If you had bought stocks and houses, your life would have been very successful. The last chance in life before 2008 was 1999, and not many people aged 40 seized that opportunity, so 2008 was the first chance.

The second chance is 20 19, and the last time is about 30 years. If you can catch it once, you can become a middle class. This is the reason why life depends on Kangbo to make a fortune.

Buffett is nothing. Why he succeeded in investing is because he was born in the recovery stage of the fifth Campo cycle, so he can succeed. If he doesn't succeed now, it is doomed.

Why did Bill Gates appear in America at that time? Because of the advanced technology at that time, China can't produce Bill Gates now. Your life chances depend on Kangbo's sports. Some people think they are awesome, have great skills and make a lot of money. In fact, everyone is running in life. This is what I believe very much after studying the economic cycle. A person's life is doomed.

The simplest thing is that people born after 1985, people under 30 now, are doomed that your life opportunity will only appear for the first time on 20 19, before 35, so people aged 25 to 30 now can only rely on Zheshang Bank in the next five years. Because buying a house is nothing, it is determined by the fate of your life's wealth, and there is no way.

I mean, when we plan the wealth of life, we must know that everyone is running in the big social system. The big social system gives you time and opportunity, and you have time and opportunity. This big system didn't give you a chance, and it's no use trying hard in this respect.

6. The real estate cycle is once every 20 years.

What is the wealth of a person's life? Theoretically, there are only a few categories: the first category is commodities. In fact, we should not underestimate this. In the 60-year journey, commodities are the most profitable industry. Just now, people in China thought this was the reason why coal bosses were the most popular.

Because the commodity bull market occurs every few decades, our commodity bull market this time is from 2000 to 2002, and this time is the recession stage of Kangbo. The fourth recession stage of Kangbo was the oil crisis and the big bull market of commodities in 1970s, so commodities were the most profitable assets.

The fifth Kangbo that everyone here has experienced, the bull market of commodities has ended, and it is impossible to make huge profits from commodities in the future. From 20 1 1 to at least 30 years, the trend of commodities is a bear market, and it is impossible for commodities to have a big increase. Do you think you can shorten it? Don't! Commodities can be short before 20 15, and no one can be short after 20 16. Commodities will take a bear market in the future. Therefore, the most important asset in your life, whether you once owned it or not, will never be found again. This is the first category.

The second asset is real estate, which is the dry cycle in the theory of economic cycle. The real estate cycle comes back once every 20 years, and a person can encounter two real estate cycles. Why? As a group, people will buy a house twice in their life. The first time was when I got married, with an average age of 27, and the second time was when I bought a house for the second time. Improving demand is about 42 years old. The peak of a person's consumption appears at the age of 46. After the age of 46, this person's consumption will go down, and your consumption will gradually change from house to old-age care.

Houses are consumed about twice in a lifetime, about once every 20 years. The real estate cycle is once every 20 years. China's current real estate cycle began at 1999. According to the law of real estate cycle, it is divided into three waves. The first wave was from 2000 to 2007, and rose again after 2009. 20 13 and 20 14, the high point of the national real estate cycle is judged at 20 14.

But by 20 15, everyone suddenly found that the house was selling well again. In 20 16, the real estate in the core areas of first-tier cities soared, but this was not a real estate restart, but a blue wave. Houses in third-and fourth-tier cities can go up, but junk stocks don't. This is a bull market. It's not a bull market to poke the stock up. This is a wave of Ranbo rebound in the real estate cycle.

Therefore, near the first half of 20 17, this round of rebound in China will end. If you own the property in the core area of the city and you don't, I think you should sell it in the next year. This is my advice to everyone.

After selling the house, you find that you can buy a lot of very cheap assets, and the price-performance ratio has changed. This is the real estate cycle. Don't think that you can't buy back the property if you sell it. There is nothing in this world that only goes up but doesn't fall. House prices will be a low point in 20 19, and will fall back in 20 17 and 20 18. This is a real estate cycle. With a 20-year cycle, 15 years rises and 5 years falls, and so does the United States.

In 2007, American house prices began to fall, hitting bottom around 20 1 1. Buying a house in America, everyone is a little different. My research is mainly on global asset allocation, and there are studies in the United States and Europe. China is in the eastern hemisphere of the world, and the United States is in the western hemisphere. The starting point of the real estate cycle in the eastern and western hemispheres differs by ten points.

The starting point of real estate in China is 2000, and that in the United States is 20 10. After 20 10, there was a bull market in the United States, and 20 17 was the first wave of high points. If you buy a house in America, you can wait. Now it is also the first wave of high points. Everyone will not be quilted if they buy now, because the rising period is not over yet.

As an ordinary citizen, no matter what your knowledge is, you are no different from your aunt. This means this kind of thing has nothing to do with IQ. This is the opportunity of your life, it depends on whether you can seize it.

In a person's life, the house is the core asset, and the goods may not be tied up. Houses built at least twice in a lifetime belong to the second category of assets.

The third asset is stocks. Stock is not a long-term problem, but fluctuates at any time, which cannot be clearly defined in our cycle.

The fourth asset is the art market. Antiques, jadeites and the like have risen rapidly in the past few years, but they have fallen sharply after anti-corruption. From this perspective, there is nothing that only goes up but doesn't fall. Your life assets will always go up and down.

7. Value preservation and liquidity are the core issues in the next five years.

As a life wealth planning, you should know what you should do at this time. I just mentioned four kinds of assets. How to fluctuate among these four types of assets? My point is that the next five years will be a period of declining assets. At this time, everyone should try to hold assets with good liquidity, not assets with poor liquidity. Like a tall house, it is an asset with poor liquidity, and the equity in the primary market is also an asset with poor liquidity.

Why do you want to mention the new third board? It is difficult to sell because of poor liquidity. In the future investment, everyone must pay attention to the fact that making money is not important. The first goal is to preserve value, and the second is liquidity. These two issues should be paid great attention to when you invest in the next five years, and should be the core issues.

This is a life planning with Kondratiev theory. In the 60-year movement, there will be three real estate cycles, which fluctuate once every 20 years and once every 10 years. A fixed asset investment cycle has three inventory cycles.

Therefore, your life is a Kangbo, three real estate cycles, nine fixed assets investment cycles and eighteen inventory cycles, and a person's life is such a process.

I am the pioneer of China's two cycles, Kondratiev's cycle theory and inventory cycle theory. Now many colleagues in the industry believe that the shortest decision-making cycle of manufacturing price fluctuation is the inventory cycle. I wrote a report in June of last year (65438+ 10), arguing that China's economy will bottom out in the first quarter of 20 16, and the inventory cycle of China's economy will rebound. Everyone saw the bottom of commodity prices rebound. I made this with my theory, so I have been very busy recently.

Two days ago, many people expressed different views from mine, and the cycle needs to be changed. Some people put forward this view. In fact, these are all refutations to my views. It doesn't matter. We can observe them in the future.

After the mid-term of 8.20 17, it entered the final decline stage of the mid-cycle.

Where are the main opportunities this year? As I said just now, the core opportunity lies in two words: price increase. All the hype comes from the price increase. In addition to the commodities I just mentioned, the prices of farm products, chickens and ducks have also gone up, and the prices of houses have also gone up, including vitamins that have recently been speculated in stocks.

What did we make money from in the past? In the past three years, I have made money by speculating in small stocks, speculating in valuations and playing idle. 20 16 my summary is called "from virtual to real", which means that everyone finds that the virtual can't play anymore. At this time, it was found that the central bank's monetary policy reached a marginal high point, the currency multiplier rose, and the inventory cycle drove the currency multiplier to rise. At this time, the basic logic is inflation. In the first year of 20 16, small stocks came down and commodities began to rise. This is a big logical transformation.

Everyone invests every year, so we should think about it before the beginning of the year. The main logic of this year's investment is to speculate on small stocks in previous years, and the next 20 16 is to speculate on price increases. As a personal investment, again, you can't buy assets with poor liquidity. Commodity resources stocks can, but other assets with poor liquidity are not cost-effective. The fundamental reason is that the currency multiplier rises and inflation will occur.

What happened last year, 20 15? What is the depreciation of RMB when stocks fall? 20 15 is the global mid-cycle high point. Just now I talked about a medium cycle, with an average of 8.6 years and 9 years. There are three inventory cycles and three mid-term highs.

Generally speaking, the highest point of the mid-cycle can appear at any of the three high points. 20 15, the global mid-cycle high represented by the United States, 20 14, 12, the fixed asset investment and PMI of the United States reached a high point. At that time, I said that when the American economy reached its peak, asset prices would have a late reaction. Everyone saw the US stock market fall by 20 15. At the same time, we also saw the Fed raise interest rates last year. From the first rate hike after the anti-crisis in 2000 to the high point of the mid-decade cycle, the period from 20 15 to 20 19 is the downward period of the mid-cycle, so at this time, we can see that the logic has changed.

Don't judge your future investment with past thinking, and don't think that the central bank will have an opportunity if it releases water again, which is not necessarily the case. Our future logic should be completely divorced from reality. However, this reality is short-lived, and it only applies to 20 16. After the middle of 20 17 years, it will enter the final decline stage in the middle of the cycle, that is, 20 18 and 20 19. Be careful, this is the general direction we are seeing now, and the general direction is that the future is the decline stage.

9. The bull market of 20 17 dollar index ended.

What is the biggest opportunity for gold in the future? Besides being a spear of money, it also has the function of preserving value. There is also a huge opportunity that the bull market of the US dollar index will end at 20 17, and the RMB will accelerate its internationalization. At this time, the international monetary system will be in turmoil.

The so-called turmoil in the international monetary system refers to the monetary policy that used to focus on the US dollar and the world observed the US dollar. Now, we find that China, the second child of the world economy, has begun to challenge this problem. We don't know how much role China will play in the future international monetary system, which depends on many factors.

At this time, there will be turbulence in the international monetary system, and everyone will be afraid. What should we do to buy gold, because gold is the spear of money after all. I think the great opportunity for gold in the future comes from this and the turmoil in the international monetary system. I think this year's gold low, this year's gold low may appear in the second or third quarter, when everyone can buy again, and now it should be a short-term high.

If our investment logic this year is such a set of logic, how can we judge this year's opportunities? If you can see that both PPI and CPI have gone up this year, it means that our economy is operating normally. For example, if you make stocks and buy commodities, it will work normally. Once you see PPI and CPI turning around or not even rising, you should be careful at this time. This may be the third high point of the inventory cycle in the economy. When this high point appears, you have to throw away all your assets, leaving only cash and gold to wait for the low point.

Investment this year depends on CPI and PPI. If it rises, it means that the economy is ok. If CPI and PPI have a downward trend, we must be cautious. The main logic of our investment this year is the same no matter what assets we make. This is the second question I want to talk about.

The third question, how do we judge that the US dollar is the world currency? 2011165438 In February, I wrote a report entitled "Dollar Break 100 Impact on China". At that time, the dollar index was at 72. I use Compaq theory to infer that the US dollar began to rise at 20 1 1, and the bull market, the US dollar index reached more than 100% in the middle of 20 17. After the index of $20 17 breaks through 100, it may impact China's asset price gap.

Now, at least the first half is right. The dollar index has reached 100. There is a simple reason. I just told you that the bull market and bear market of the US dollar index are essentially determined by the real estate cycle in the United States. 20 10 after the United States started the real estate cycle, the US dollar index entered a bull market.

In 20 19, after the real estate cycle in eastern countries began, the prosperity spread from the western hemisphere to the eastern hemisphere. At that time, the dollar became a bear market, and it was not suitable to exchange dollars at any time. Why? It's a little mysterious I just changed the four-cycle nesting theory for you. I have been studying this thing for more than ten years, and later I found that the law of its operation is actually the law of astronomy.

In the future, the law governing the earth is the law of the sun. The sunspot cycle is the longest, from 55 to 60 years, with a Haier cycle of 20 years, including the Schwabe cycle of 10 year, and then the El Ni? o cycle, so El Ni? o is an inventory cycle in the economy.

Later, after studying this thing, I felt more and more that fatalism was feasible, and there was a basis for using your date of birth to tell fortune. I can use business cycle theory to deduce similar results in the future.

I later discovered that both fortune telling and business cycle theory follow astronomical laws. Fatalism must make sense. Of course, maybe we can't explain why it makes sense, but there must be an internal connection.

I think it is very important for everyone, especially at work, to tell our friends that you must know what your leader belongs to. After you know what the chairman and general manager of your company are, you can roughly judge whether your company will do it this year. If possible, work for a few more years. If not, it is important to change jobs as soon as possible. This is really a very important thing.

Just now I said that 20 19 was the worst year for China's economy, which can also be explained by another set of theories I just said. Therefore, the dollar has not reached the high point of this bull market, and it should be in the middle of next year.

In the first half of next year, the United States will also experience stagflation. At that time, the Fed will continue to raise interest rates, and there will be liquidity problems. The U.S. economy will turn down, inflation will turn down, and the economy will adjust. This is what we saw in the middle of 20 17. As long as you master these rules when investing, you won't make big mistakes.

Fourthly, with regard to policy, China's policy must be bound by the Mundell Triangle, that is, exchange rate and monetary policy can only be the second choice, not both. Therefore, since the devaluation of RMB, the easing degree of China's monetary policy has been affected. Now that the RMB has stabilized, there is some room for monetary policy.

10, exercise, 20 19 come back.

But on the whole, monetary policy will not be very loose this year, which can be seen. The fundamental reason is China's concern about the exchange rate and inflation level. Let me talk about my views on the future RMB exchange rate. Now everyone is very pessimistic about the RMB exchange rate. I think the RMB exchange rate will appreciate after the second half of this year. This is my judgment.

Why?

Theoretically speaking, China and the United States are leaders in the world economy, and their interests are in fact the same. It is a sincere statement that the Fed should consider China when raising interest rates. If we observe the exchange rate since last year, we will find that the trend of RMB is the leading indicator of the trend of the US dollar. The renminbi fell first, and the dollar fell again. Now that the RMB is stable, the US dollar index is also stable. If it is judged that the world begins the third inventory cycle, the United States raises interest rates, the dollar rises, and the RMB goes up. In the second half of this year, it is not necessary to be bearish on the renminbi. You still have to think about it. It may be more important to do foreign exchange, which is a big trend.

After 20 17, everyone may think that if the dollar depreciates, the RMB will definitely depreciate. What should we do? There are two ways. When you have a hunch that the RMB will depreciate, you can short the won. Korea is the leading indicator of China's economy, so you can short the won. You can also short Australian dollars in the future. In the future, Australia is a resource country, and its currency will fluctuate with iron ore. This is a way to hedge the risk of RMB falling, and this is also the macro hedging theory of global asset allocation that I usually study.

Many people say that children have to buy a house to study in Australia. I said it is not suitable now because: first, the Australian dollar is on the high side now, and it can be exchanged for more in the future; Second, houses in Australia are expensive now, and they will definitely be cheaper in four or five years.

People in resource countries must wait until the lowest point of resources, about 20 18 or 20 19. Maybe none of you here are familiar with me, but the secondary market is familiar with my theory.

You may not know, because of the Kondratiev cycle, they usually call me "Nicholas Tao Jin". Kondratiev's full name is "Nicholas Kondratiev", and you can find it by searching for "Nicholas Tao Jin", because my judgment on China's economy and world economic cycle was accurate at least in the past, and can only be verified later.

What is the biggest investment opportunity of 20 16? It is the price of goods, which was repeatedly emphasized last year. I think everyone must understand that any opportunity depends on gambling, and there is no definite opportunity. When you place a bet, you will decide whether you can succeed or not. There is no doubt that a good investor is gambling.

I told the investment manager that when you see that everything is certain, the opportunity does not belong to you. You can only get the opportunity when you are uncertain, so any opportunity is gambling. 20 15 I told you that the best bet on 20 16 is the rebound of commodity prices. It's your bet. Now it seems to be rebounding. I will follow this, because the most important signal appears, which is the situation of 20 16.

For the future, I want to remind you that the period from 20 18 to 20 19 is the eternal year of Kangbo cycle and the worst stage in 60 years. We must control the risks of 20 18 and 20 19. Before that, make full cash preparations, and now you can issue bonds, and there will be cash in five years.

For individuals, selling investment real estate and the equity of the New Third Board next year, buying gold, taking two years off, exercising and coming back on 20 19 is everyone's future life plan.

1 1, the greatest opportunity in life after 85 is coming.

Just now, the host said that I used to be the director of CITIC Construction Investment Research Institute, and I became the chief economist only after I resigned last year. The reason is that I think it will be more difficult to do things in the next four years than in the past six years. Moreover, before the arrival of the flute, a society will inevitably have a tendency to split, which can be seen in theory, so it is normal to have some tendencies in politics.

In this case, you have only two choices in life: one is to do a fake job like me, fool around every day, fool around when you are in a good mood, and stay at home when you are in a bad mood, which is a choice; Another option is that the future must be a heroic era. You can be a saint or a martyr. This is another life path that you can choose, and you can choose in the future.

I think the next four years will really be a time of great changes in society, especially for people after 1985. It's true, the biggest opportunity of your life is coming. This is my view of the future.

Specifically at 20 16, how do I judge? China took the lead in opening the third inventory cycle. 20 16 in the first quarter, the United States started its third inventory cycle and will not raise interest rates before. I think it is foreseeable that the United States will raise interest rates in September at the earliest.

Why is the United States afraid of raising interest rates? Because the most vulnerable thing in the United States is asset prices, the United States is also afraid of raising interest rates. Europe, the movement of European economic cycle is later than that of China and the United States. Now the high point of the European economic cycle is slightly lower, and the low point in Europe appeared in the fourth quarter of this year.

The trend of the US dollar index should be weak in the first two quarters and strong in the fourth quarter. This determines that the best time for China's economy to bottom out on 20 16 is the first half of the year, with little pressure from the US dollar and the rebound of commodities in the first quarter.

There is my speech on the Internet, which was reprinted by WeChat. June+February, 5438, everyone saw it. It doesn't matter if you see it. This trend remained in the first half of the year. Everyone can still make more goods, and the economy is rising. In March, the US dollar index bottomed out and rebounded, and it will be an upward period by the middle of 20 17. The first half of this year was the best respite for China's economy, stock market and asset prices. Commodity prices rose and the stock market was stable. This can be grasped by our theory.

This year is the best year in the next four years. The core logic is to do inflation and speculate on price increases. This is our core logic. When is the best time to cook? Stagflation occurred in the second half of the year, buying gold, then selling assets and holding cash. This is the overall logic of this year.