Qiu Guolu: Count the moon, not the stars.

Investing in a company is essentially a part of sharing its future cash flow. The industry with clear industry structure and winning or losing points has high profitability certainty. Like Baidian, the industry grew rapidly from 2000 to 2005, but the profit was not good. In 2006, the growth rate of the industry began to slow down, but the profit increased substantially, because after the reshuffle of the industry, small factories withdrew and the concentration of the industry increased greatly.

In the early days, many people liked to bet on horses, and some people did bet right, but the probability of betting right was very small. When a new technology comes out, it is always a melee, and it is difficult to tell who is the winner. I am willing to wait until the outcome is decided, as Sun Tzu said in the Art of War: Fight after winning, not after fighting. When the industry is concentrated to a certain extent, the top three occupy half of the country. Then you can see who is good and who is bad. Not only can you throw, but you dare to do it again.

Everyone is always worried that it will be too late to reinvest after the outcome has been divided, but looking back, the company that was the leader ten years ago is still the leader of the industry ten years later. In this decade, their gains are amazing, as are all walks of life.

I keep saying: count the moon, not the stars. Counting stars is too tiring, and the long-term return will not be good, because it is too difficult. There will be a person who is clairvoyant and good at counting stars, so he may be the material for angel investment and venture capital, because he can see the old at the age of three. Just like judging whether a person is successful or not, would you rather judge at the age of three or wait until the age of 30? Of course, some people will seize the week to judge when they are one year old, and seize the abacus to say that they want to be an accountant when they grow up, but this is fortune telling. He hasn't gone to kindergarten yet. How do you know what he will do in the future? Of course, you can say that this person is a rich second generation, and the rich second generation later lost many homes. Therefore, the accuracy of seeing the old at the age of three is too low.

We are secondary market investors and can provide for the aged at the age of 30. You can wait for this person to grow up. In the first 3-5 years of work, you can know which school he graduated from, what industry he entered, what position he held, and how quickly he was promoted. Judging his situation in the next 30 years is much more certain than looking at his age at three.

When I first returned to China, everyone was talking about the ceiling of the air conditioner. We made a comparative analysis of white electricity and black electricity, and the conclusion is that we are optimistic about white electricity but not black electricity. Because of the different industry structure, although white electricity is still in melee, there are only four left, and only two air conditioners are left. Moreover, the technological change of air conditioning is continuous, and there will be no subversive results in the process of technological change. Black electricity, from CRT to plasma to LCD screen to LED to 3D TV, is revolutionary every time. It is very painful for enterprises not to follow. If they don't follow you, they may fall behind. If they follow you, they will invest a lot of money, which is very risky. In two or three years, new technologies may come out. In case of investing in 3D TV, it may be a false proposition, and blackouts will be much more difficult.

When I first started in America, I asked a senior partner of the company how to be an excellent fund manager. He said, very simply, you only need to remember two points: first, cherish the customer's money as your own; Secondly, the stock investment in the secondary market is analyzed as industrial investment in the primary market.

In the past ten years, I have mainly invested in some high-quality companies in some win-lose industries, such as some big white horse companies, which often appear in my portfolio. If you want to see my group, you will feel bored. People will definitely think that you have found a lot of big white horses in the past ten or eight years. Nothing interesting. Anyone can.

I seldom talk about investment now because there is nothing new. If I say it, people will think that this person is really nothing new. If you just flip through these investment ideas, that's all the stocks I invested in.

Why have I only said a few words in this decade, just a few industries? Because I invest from the perspective of industry, I pursue companies with unchanged core competitiveness. They were industry leaders ten years ago and are still industry leaders now. Of course, it is not easy to find a constant company in the changeable market.

The market changes every day. We invest, but we study the laws behind the market that are not subject to people: economic laws, industry patterns, supply and demand relations, and business models. It is sometimes good for us to guess the mood changes in the market, but it is not lasting. So investment is really "boring", which is a normal state. Just like those who go to casinos, some people go to play and spend millions of VIP rooms in one night, but those who really want to make money need to be rational and rigorous, which is not fun.

I have been a strategic manager for ten years, and I haven't changed much. Because I'm not good at chasing changes, I'm better at seeking unchanging laws in changing phenomena.

In the past ten years, people have asked me which industries I am optimistic about. I always talk about three major industries: financial real estate, brand consumption and advanced manufacturing. Why? These industries meet my standards, the industry pattern is very clear, and the moon has come out. I have never been the first person to eat crabs. I will wait until the result is clear before investing. There's always a chance to buy them anyway. A shares are highly volatile and often have good buying opportunities.

The pattern of financial real estate is relatively unclear, but it is cheap. When everyone was bearish on real estate five years ago, I made a comprehensive comparison between movies and real estate. At that time, the box office of Chinese movies was 30 billion to 40 billion a year, and the market value of the largest company was already 40 billion to 50 billion, while real estate sold 8 trillion a year, and the market value of the largest leading company was only 60 billion to 70 billion. At that time, the market share of the largest leading companies was only one or two points, but it can be seen that large developers will continue to seize the market share of small developers. We expect that the concentration of the real estate industry will inevitably increase. It's very simple: large companies get land 5-10% cheaper than small companies; Centralized procurement of raw materials can be 5-10% cheaper; The financing cost is also 5- 10% cheaper than that of small companies (for example, some leading real estate enterprises issued 5-year corporate bonds at the end of 20 16, and the lending rate of small companies may exceed10%); Finally, the houses in the same lot are sold by large companies at a price of 5- 10% higher than that of small companies for brand reasons. When these 5- 10% are added together, how can small developers compete with big developers? This is what I call "victory and defeat are divided." These reasons are very simple, and everyone can think of them.

Pricing ability is also very important. Why do I often say these three industries? Because these industries can raise prices. I have always said that industries with "overlord clauses" will not be too bad. For example, the "overlord clause" of real estate is very powerful. You have to pay him in advance, he will use your money to build a house for you and give it to you two years later, but the movie has to throw money first, and the movie cash flow is very poor. A handful of rice and a catty of water for liquor costs you several hundred dollars, and the gross profit margin is 80% to 90%, which is quite high. A few years ago, banks also had some "overlord clauses", but now they are gone, indicating that the competition in the banking industry is fiercer than before.