"confidant" is so hot, why doesn't SAIC have a daily limit?

Last Friday, SAIC's share price opened sharply higher, once hitting the daily limit. The inducement is, of course, that SAIC announced on the same day that it would invest in the establishment of Shanghai Yuan Jie Intelligent Technology Equity Investment Fund Partnership.

Translated, this announcement was actually led by SAIC, which found a bunch of "friends circle" to engage in "high-end intelligent pure electric vehicles". This wave of "friends circle" not only includes Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, but also the information of cooperation and investment with Alibaba in the project plan. For the target project, it is tentatively named "Zhiji Automobile".

Therefore, investors regard it as a "significant positive". Think about it, "high-end intelligent pure electric vehicle" and "Internet giant Alibaba" focus on "artificial intelligence", "autonomous driving", "pure electricity" and so on. In terms of scale, the first round of financing is planned to be 654.38+000 billion yuan-more than any new force in the past.

Let's look at Weilai of Nasdaq: the market value has exceeded 70 billion US dollars, which is almost "one and a half times" of SAIC's total market value. Tesla's market value has reached more than $550 billion at the "cosmic level", equivalent to ten SAIC groups. According to this expectation, SAIC's share price will at least double!

Not long ago, there seemed to be a precedent in the market. 165438+1On October 5th, the controlling shareholder transferred shares to ByteDance (a subsidiary of Quantum Elantra), which triggered the daily limit for six consecutive trading days, and the share price more than doubled in two weeks.

So, for investors, what are you hesitating about? One word: chase!

However, why didn't SAIC even seal a daily limit when it finally closed?

Actually, it's normal to think calmly. There are three reasons.

The concept of uncertainty has limited influence on large-cap companies.

We know that the current market is not the same as that of that year, and the company can soar by changing its name. Especially for a "giant ship" like SAIC, a large number of institutions hold positions. The stock price rise must have convincing logic. To paraphrase an old saying of Ba Lao, only when the expectation of "discounted cash flow method in the future" changes qualitatively can the stock price soar in the short term.

So, is it possible to cooperate with Ali to launch a high-end pure electric intelligent function to achieve this? In other words, can it provide investors with such "expectations"?

Indeed, the first round of financing10 billion exceeded Weilai, Tucki and so on. However, everyone in the circle knows that this scale can only be regarded as a "starting price" in "building a car".

The key point is that although the concept of this matter is very good and fits the hot spot, the uncertainty is too high after all. To some extent, it is still in the "blueprint" stage.

Just like Weilai and Tucki, what is the market value of their first round of financing? Don't forget that just over a year ago, Weilai's market value was only one fiftieth of what it is now. ...

Maybe you will say that a year ago, "the wind didn't arrive", even the market value of Tesla was average. The present is different, in the "gale" of new energy.

Then, why are there so many new forces "thundering"?

Looking back two years ago, did many people think that Batten was more reliable than Tucki or even Weilai? However, what is the current market value of Baiteng?

More importantly, even if most investors think that SAIC and Alibaba are "golden partners", it is not enough to cause too much sensation, because SAIC is too big.

Generally speaking, simply relying on the concept to trigger the stock price rise is only applicable to small-cap companies. For example, palm reading technology, which soared not long ago, had a market value of only10 billion when it rose. The key point is that it is a "small company" with total assets of only 2 billion, revenue of only 2 billion and net profit of only 654.38 billion. With ByteDance's participation, the market can naturally "imagine" that it can quickly double its income and profits.

What about SAIC? It is a "giant ship" with total market value and net assets exceeding 300 billion, revenue of 800 billion and net profit of 20 billion. Not to mention that the market is "unrepeatable", just look at the expectation: even if the smart plan is successful, if only the initial investment of10 billion, the "discounted future cash flow" will be greatly increased or even doubled. It is estimated that no one in the market is so optimistic.

The growth of intellectual self: it is not "unanimously optimistic" by the market as everyone imagines.

Admittedly, you can refute the views in the previous chapter from two aspects.

First,? At present, the revenues of Weilai and Tucki are not high, and their profits are even negative, but this does not affect their market value to surpass SAIC one after another.

Second,? Wisdom is not just a "blueprint" at present. In fact, the car has been initially formed, and the road test is about to begin, and it will be mass-produced and listed soon. Zhiqi is not starting from scratch now, but belongs to the landing of SAIC“L's "L Plan". This project started as early as two years ago.

We won't discuss the first point, which goes back to the "old question" whether the current "market dream rate" valuation of Weilai and Tucki is reasonable.

What we are going to talk about now is the second point. It is precisely because Zhiji belongs to the "L" type, so we think that the market will not treat Zhiji equally with Weilai and Tucki.

In other words, the market can give Weilai and Tucki a "market dream rate", but not Zhi Zhi.

It should be pointed out that the future, Tucki and ideals. It is significantly different from other car companies. Rhetorically speaking, it is "the Internet makes cars" and "new forces make cars".

Don't underestimate this word. This is actually the key that the market can give these car companies a "market dream rate".

What is the "city dream rate"? You can think and dream as much as you want. In the words of "seriousness", it is the subversion and revolution of the industry model. Just as digital cameras have changed Kodak's life and smart phones have changed Nokia's life, these "new forces" will change the life of "traditional car companies" sooner or later.

This is the deep-seated reason why Weilai's market value exceeds BMW's and Tesla's market value exceeds the sum of the market values of all luxury brand car companies including BBA. Whether you accept it or not, that's how the bulls in the market see it. You think "incomprehensible" and "unreasonable" can only show that you are short.

People have noticed that bulls have a "cleanliness addiction" when they look at these "new forces", that is, they cannot be contaminated with "traditional car companies". This is why BMW has launched the I series, Mercedes-Benz has launched the EQ series, and even Volkswagen has MEB, but the market is still unwilling to give a high valuation.

Because the market thinks that no one can change his life. Not Mercedes-Benz BMW, not Toyota Honda, not Volkswagen, and certainly not SAIC.

In recent years, SAIC has invested a lot of money in new energy. Three electricity technologies have also developed from generation to generation. Are there any high-end products from Ei5 to the current R series? Marvel Comics? 10. However, why didn't the market give SAIC too high a valuation expectation? That's why.

Look at this one again. All kinds of publicity are "new power routines", and Ali's "platform" (but it can't actually reach 20% of the shares) is still "SAIC new energy" in his bones.

Yes, it is precisely because of knowing a few things that it is essentially the landing of SAIC "L". And this "L" has been expected by the market for two years. Therefore, this announcement is not a "breaking news" for those who pay close attention to SAIC.

As for Zhizao itself, from the industry analogy, it is not like Weilai, Tucki, nor Tesla, but more like Aion of GAC New Energy, or the polar fox similar to Geely's geometry and BAIC.

Yes, it's just a new energy brand that SAIC wants to rebuild, and then it will be positioned at the high end. Based on MARVELX's previous performance, how much do you expect the market to give this new brand?

As a reference, let's take a look at the stock price performance of Guangzhou Automobile Group, Geely Automobile and Beiqi Blue Valley in the past year-they have all gone up, but they can't compare with Weilai, Tucki and Tesla.

Where is the stock price going? The core is to see the periodicity of SAIC itself.

At this point, the answer to the title of the article should already be there, that is, because Zhiji's influence is limited and the market expectation is not as good as many hot spots think, there has been a situation that "spicy and good can't seal a daily limit".

In all fairness, I'm afraid this intellectual's influence on SAIC's share price is far less than that of ID.4? X has been put into mass production. Such a news has made a company with a market value of 300 billion+rise by 8% in one day, which has exceeded expectations (too much).

However, you may still feel dissatisfied: after talking for a long time, what is the future trend of SAIC? Is it up or down?

Supposedly, such a "fortune-telling topic" does not belong to the scope of this article, but some people care, so we might as well talk about our own views.

Are cars consumer stocks or cyclical stocks? Controversial, but our view is definitely the latter. But its cycle is not as obvious as that of steel, cement and oil.

SAIC is the most suitable cyclical stock among all listed car companies. In other words, SAIC is the company that best reflects the whole industry cycle.

Therefore, the rise and fall of SAIC is closely related to the industry cycle characteristics of China automobile market. This is different from the listed companies such as Great Wall Motor, Changan Automobile and BYD.

For example, we noticed that SAIC's profit reached its peak in 20 18, from 20.2 billion in 2010/year to 36 billion in 20 18 year. After 20 19, the profit fell for the first time, falling to 25.6 billion (it is still a year-on-year decline so far). SAIC's share price, of course, hit a record high in 20 18, and then gradually fell, from 33.69 yuan (before the restoration of power) to the "epidemic bottom" of 16.58 yuan at the beginning of this year, just over half.

These are all in line with the characteristics of "value investment", that is, the stock price is a long-term "weighing machine", which corresponds to performance.

So the key now is, will SAIC's performance bottom out or continue to explore? You have also seen this through the analysis of various industries this year-whether it is the stimulus after the epidemic or the real recovery of the industry, in short, the second half of this year is really good news. This is also the reason for the "mad cow" of the whole vehicle sector this year (the Great Wall and Chang 'an skyrocketed). SAIC's share price also rose from 16.58 yuan to (the highest) 28.8 yuan.

In this regard, there may still be many people dissatisfied. Great Wall Motor's current share price is almost four times that of the "epidemic bottom", and Changan Automobile, the company that deducts non-net profit losses, is also three times that of the "epidemic bottom". Why can't SAIC double? Is it possible to make a round of "compensation" by wisdom?

We don't think it is possible.

The growth logic of SAIC is very different from that of the Great Wall and Chang 'an. For example, countless people may not understand the low valuation of SAIC-the same vehicle stock, SAIC has only ten times the valuation, while Great Wall has a hundred times the valuation. Why?

A very important reason is that all the profits of SAIC come from joint ventures-SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC-GM. SAIC's independent division has been losing money for years. You are not mistaken. Don't think Roewe and MG are very popular now. This part is still losing money, and even the gross profit margin is negative!

And! Its losses are still increasing. Take the third quarterly report as an example, the operating net profit of its independent sector is-1600 million, up 300 million year-on-year and 500 million quarter-on-quarter!

For a long time, the market valuation of listed companies that rely on joint ventures for profit is not high, because the growth logic behind this is in the hands of foreign companies.

There is a lesson of "blood" in this respect. At that time, the valuation of Changan Automobile was only a dozen times, that is, when the stock price peaked, the performance was mainly supported by Changan Ford, while the independent sector had been losing money. Everyone saw the end of Changan Ford-from profit support to huge losses. Changan Automobile's share price has also dropped from the highest value of 25 yuan to the lowest value of 5.53 yuan-and the higher the valuation, it is a double kill for Davis!

We are not saying that SAIC will repeat the mistakes of Chang 'an. Volkswagen and GM are nothing like Ford. We just explain the valuation logic behind this: SAIC's current low valuation is reasonable.

Look at "periodic changes" again. At present, GM seems to have stepped out of periodic underestimation, showing a growth trend this year. It seems that SAIC Volkswagen has not completely "slowed down". Although there are new products superimposed on the independent plate, from the perspective of investors, it seems that there is no expectation of turning losses.

In this case, why can investors "double" SAIC's share price?

Does this mean that SAIC has only one way to "fall down"?

Not exactly.

I forgot, there is MEB and ID.4 At present, SAIC's share price should be at a balance point where the overall industry sector has not fallen sharply. In addition to the production and sales reports, the most important factor that determines the future ups and downs is probably ID.4? X's performance-if it is better than expected, it is not impossible for by going up one flight of stairs to even hit a record high (33.69 yuan). On the other hand, if the performance of ID.4 is flat, it is entirely possible that the stock price will fall back after making a small double head here and return to the previous platform range of 2 1-25.

So, in the final analysis, are you buying or not? Well, all business is determined by the expected availability. That depends on the above analysis, whether your current view will be "more" or "empty". If I have to ask my position, I am a bear in the face of the current stock price and the madness of the whole industry. ...

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.