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Another big real estate company is crazy. According to the news of Caixie on March 23rd, Sunac China plans to issue corporate bonds "20Sunac 0 1( 163376). SH) "should have been resold on April 1 day. On the day of the news, "20 Sunac 0 1" closed at 36.83 yuan, down 4 1.54%.

The "20 Sunac 0 1" plan will be extended for 24 months from April 1 day, and the principal will be repaid every quarter, with a large balance of 5% in July 1 day, 0% in the next three quarters, 0/5% in the next three quarters, and 4/2024. In addition, Sun Hongbin, Chairman of Sunac China, will provide unlimited joint liability guarantee for this bond.

"20 Sunac 0 1" was released on April 1 day, 2020, with a scale of 4 billion yuan, with coupon rate accounting for 4.78%. The term is 2 1 1 year, that is, the bond issuer has the right to decide to adjust the coupon rate of the current bond at the end of the second and third years of the term. The bondholders have the right to choose the end of the second year and the end of the third year to sell all or part of the bonds held in the current period back to the issuer at face value.

Downgrading faces greater debt risk.

Recently, international rating agencies downgraded Sunac China (0 19 18. HK) Almost at the same time. On March 24th, Fitch announced that it would downgrade the default rating of Sunac China's long-term issuer from "B-" to "CC", and its senior unsecured rating and outstanding senior unsecured notes would be downgraded from "B-" to "CC", and the recovery rate would remain at "RR4".

March 23rd, Standard & Poor's. Standard & Poor's Global Rating released a report, revoking Sunac China's "B-" long-term issuer credit rating and "CCC" senior unsecured notes long-term issuance rating.

Earlier, Moody's also issued an announcement on March 22nd, downgrading Sunac's corporate family rating from "B 1" to "Caa 1", and downgrading its advanced unsecured rating from "B2" to "Caa2".

Moody's stressed in the negative outlook that there is uncertainty in the company's ability to solve all due debts through new loans or asset disposal in the next 6- 12 months.

The downgrade of credit rating further increased Sunac's debt risk. It is reported that Sunac's overseas private debt of about $3 billion, as well as related syndicated loans, has been accelerated due to the recent downgrade. The company is currently trying to communicate with these investors.

According to the enterprise early warning data, including the aforementioned "20Rongchuang 0 1", Sunac Group has 9 bonds, with the existing scale of1674.9 billion yuan, of which the balance due in June this year is 144 billion yuan, which has reached 20Rongchuang 0 1, 20Rongchuang 03/kloc-this year.

Sunac has 12 USD bonds in China, with a scale of 7.704 billion USD, of which two bonds totaling1200 million USD will expire in June and August this year respectively; It will expire at $2 billion in 2023 and $26 1 billion in 2024.

In addition to bonds, Sunac China's commercial tickets are overdue. In China gub of Sunac, it was reported that its 200,000 commercial tickets were overdue for half a year. Sky Survey shows that since February 2023, Sunac China has had more than 20 judicial cases of bill recourse disputes. In addition, the beneficial trust network shows that in 20021year, Sunac obtained at least about 1 1 billion yuan of financing through trust, of which nearly 6.7 billion yuan will expire this year.

Sunac's "selling" can't afford the debt.

In the first two months of 2023, Sunac China achieved contracted sales of 50.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.5%.

On March 2 1 day, Sunac China announced that the profit attributable to owners of the company in 20021year was about 85% lower than that in 2020, and the core net profit was 50% lower than that in 2020. Regarding the reason for the sharp drop in net profit, Sunac China said that it was mainly the investment loss caused by the company's disposal of shell stocks. In addition, due to the grim market situation of the real estate industry in the second half of 20021,the company's sales revenue and gross profit margin decreased, and inventory impairment and other factors also affected its performance.

On the same day, Sunac China said that due to the recent epidemics in Chinese mainland and Hongkong, travel and logistics were limited, and the audit procedure of the company's 20021annual report could not be completed as scheduled. Therefore, Sunac China cannot publish its audited annual results on or before March 3, 2023, and plans to publish its unaudited annual results on March 3, 2023.

China Rongchuang Holding Co., Ltd.

In the first half of last year, Sunac's operation was still in normal operation. On August 30th, 20021year, Sunac China released the interim results report for 20021year, which showed that the company achieved operating income of 95.82 billion yuan, up by 23.9% year-on-year. Gross profit was 6,543.8+0.998 billion yuan, up 65,438+02.5% year-on-year; The net profit returned to the mother119.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%; Earnings per share was 2.62 yuan, up 8.7% year-on-year.

By the end of June, 2002/kloc-0, Sunac China had total liabilities of 997122 million yuan, cash and its equivalents of1065438 million yuan, and pre-sale supervision funds of 22 billion yuan. Judging from the indicators of "three red lines", Sunac China stepped on one of the "three red lines" only because the asset-liability ratio after excluding advance payment was 76%.

However, Sunac's debt structure shows the result of the company's thunderstorm. At the end of June 20021year, Sunac's total liabilities were 99,765,438+22 million yuan.

The total current liabilities are 75,4961billion yuan, and the non-current liabilities, mainly long-term loans, are 2,4261.61billion yuan. The balance of short-term loans within one year is 90.96 billion yuan, accounting for nearly one-third of the total loans of 303.5 billion yuan in the current period.

In order to cope with the debt, Sunac began to raise funds through asset disposal, equity financing and interest-free loans to major shareholders in the fourth quarter of last year, including the sale of shell shares, equity in several projects in Shanghai, Hangzhou and Kunming, the sale of office buildings in Shanghai Hongqiao Business District and hotels and office buildings in the core area of Hangzhou. According to incomplete statistics, Sunac has withdrawn about 30 billion yuan through the above methods, but it is still unable to repay its debts.

Related Q&A: What happened to 202 1 Sunac recently? We expect the market to be fierce in the second half of the year. China Housing News reporter Li Yehua reports from Beijing: Many people say that Sun Hongbin has changed. The evidence is that in recent years, at the performance conference, Sun Hongbin, who used to have frequent golden sentences, was more restrained and kept a low profile than in the past. Not only has the speaking style changed, but Sunac China, who has always appeared in people's field of vision as an expert in land acquisition and merger, has also begun to shout "reduce risks" and "safety first". "We need security now. If you still take the land as in the past, you will swallow up a lot of profits; At present, all enterprises have no way to acquire it anyway. " On August 3 1, Sunac held the 202 1 Interim Performance Investor Conference in China, and Sun Hongbin said at the meeting. "Sunac's primary goal in the next three years is to reduce financing costs, and we must make the credit rating investment grade. To this end, we must not only reduce the debt ratio, but also reduce the debt scale, because in this case, the financing cost can be reduced. " He believes that the "three red lines" are reasonable policies, and giving a three-year grace period is a more pragmatic indicator. According to the data of 20021semi-annual report disclosed by Sunac China, what Sun Hongbin said is true, and the "three red lines" indicators of Sunac China are improving continuously. As of June 30, Sunac China's asset-liability ratio after excluding advance receipts was about 76%, down about 2.3 percentage points from the end of 2020; The net debt ratio is 86.6%, which is about 9.4 percentage points lower than the end of 2020; The ratio of short-term cash liabilities is about 1. 1 1. In terms of operating income, as of June 30 this year, the contracted sales amount of Sunac China was about 320.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 64.3%; The income was about 95.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.9%; Gross profit was about 65.438+0.998 billion yuan, up 654.38+02.5% year-on-year; The gross profit margin was 20.8%, down 2.2% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 654.38+0.65, 43.8+0.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%; The core net profit was about 6,5438+0,365,438+0.5 billion yuan, up 0.8% year-on-year. As of the close of August 3 1, Sunac China reported HK$ 19.9 per share, an increase of 1.95%. "The second half of 202 1 may be more tragic." At the beginning of 20021,Sunac China set a sales target of 640 billion yuan. 202 1 is halfway through, and this goal has been achieved. In the case that the data of all aspects of revenue rose gratifying, the gross profit margin decreased slightly year-on-year. However, according to the performance report, after deducting the revaluation effect, the gross profit is still at a good level in the industry, with a gross profit of about 253. 1 100 million yuan and a gross profit margin of about 26.4%. Meanwhile, the information provided by Sunac China shows that the total saleable resources in the second half of 20021will exceed 660 billion yuan, which will lay a solid foundation for performance growth. In the eyes of many investors, Sunac China's annual sales target is a high probability event. Sun Hongbin is slightly pessimistic about the real estate market in the second half of 20021. He said that the market was good in the first half of this year, and the market pressure was great in the second half. "This year's market is particularly like the first half of 20 18, with better sales and more difficult loans; Loans were equally difficult in the second half of the year, but sales fell sharply. We expect the market to be fierce in the second half of the year. " In Sun Hongbin's view, there are two reasons for the poor market in the second half of 200212002: First, some enterprises are under great pressure to cut prices; Second, the national policy is relatively firm, the market has the expectation that house prices will not rise, the economic pressure is relatively large, and the purchasing power will be affected. Some investors called on Sun Hongbin to summarize the characteristics of "thunderstorm" enterprises in the market, such as "thunderstorm" and "broken capital chain". In this regard, Sun Hongbin said, "It is difficult to understand other companies. The problematic enterprise actually saw it two years ago. The emergence of problems must be comprehensive, either layout problems, expensive purchases or strategic problems. Either there is a problem with the product or the money has been taken away. " "If the land bought on 20 17 has not been sold, it will be a big loss now." Sun Hongbin said that many enterprises bought expensive land in the first half of 20 17 and 20 18, sold it and found it was a loss, then stopped selling it. I told them to sell the lost land quickly and make something new after selling it. If you keep it, you will lose more. I don't know what you are waiting for. "Leave a safe border" This is not the first time that Sun Hongbin said at the performance meeting that he would "control land acquisition". Sunac China, which talks about "controlling land acquisition", acquired a lot of land in the first half of 2002/kloc-0. According to the data of Ke Rui, as of June 10, Sunac has taken 4 1 of the centralized land supply, ranking first among the real estate enterprises in China, more than the second Vanke 1 1. At the shareholders' meeting in May, some investors asked Sunac China about land acquisition. In this regard, Sun Hongbin's response is that Sunac's land acquisition through the open market accounts for about 1/3 of the new land reserve. Although the amount of land acquisition in recent months seems to be relatively large, many projects have partners. In fact, Sunac also needs to invest a little money. "Taking Hangzhou as an example, Sunac took four plots of land, three of which failed to reach the competitive self-sustaining stage. The self-sustaining part of these plots was finally taken away by the original price of the partners, ensuring the profit rate. In addition, the overall equity ratio of Sunac's four plots is 52.5%, and the actual investment is half. " Sun Hongbin said. In July, it was reported that the proportion of land acquisition by real estate enterprises in sales should not exceed 40%, and the real estate enterprises included in the "three red lines" pilot project have been regulated to require that the amount of land acquisition should not exceed 40% of annual sales. The statistical scope includes land acquisition expenditure in the open market and land acquisition expenditure through mergers and acquisitions. At the same time, some insiders said that the above-mentioned land purchase and sales ratio is calculated by equity, not full-scale statistics. Sunac China's performance report shows that in the first half of 200210, the company acquired equity land shares worth 2 135 billion yuan, and the proportion of equity land sales was 37.9%, just below the standard. If the time is extended to one year (from July 2020 to June 20021year), the sales ratio of the company's equity land acquisition is only 28.5%. At the same time, Sunac China said that in the second half of 20021,it will actively control the total amount and pace of land acquisition and prudently acquire high-quality land. It is estimated that the sales ratio of equity land acquisition will be controlled within 20%, and the annual sales ratio of equity land acquisition will be controlled within 30%. Regarding this land acquisition target, Sun Hongbin said, "In the second half of 20021,the market pressure will be even greater, including the financing market and sales, so we should set a relatively safe boundary for ourselves. If you still take the land as in the past, you will swallow up a lot of profits. We need security now. " At the meeting, Sun Hongbin also talked about the relationship between M&A and liabilities. "At present, no matter what the price, there is no way for all enterprises to buy, because I want to buy your debt at the same time." Sunac China has a firm attitude towards debt reduction. "Sunac should not only reduce the debt ratio, but also reduce the debt scale." Sun Hongbin said that the company will reduce the financing cost from the current 8% to below 5% within three years, and its credit rating will be investment grade. In the first half of 20021,Standard & Poor's upgraded Sunac's main rating to BB, with a stable outlook; Moody's and Fitch upgraded their rating outlook to positive. JPMorgan Chase is also optimistic about Sunac's strong fundamentals, high net profit level and the expected decline in financial costs and leverage, and maintains its "buy" rating. Sustainalytics, the world's leading ESG rating company, also upgraded Sunac to a "low risk" rating, ranking first among 70 participating real estate enterprises in China. Sunac China, which is unwilling to buy, just spent 9.965438 billion yuan in April this year to buy 80% equity of Zhangtai Group. It is reported that there are as many as 54 M&A projects with total assets exceeding 48.7 billion yuan. What is the logic of this acquisition? From the data point of view, as the largest real estate enterprise in Guangxi, Zhangtai's sales in 20 18-2020 exceeded 20 billion yuan for three consecutive years, of which the full-caliber sales in Guangxi reached 22.45 billion yuan in 2020, and the equity sales amount reached161400,000 yuan, ranking first. According to the sales of commercial housing in Guangxi in 2020, the market share is about 5%, ranking first over Country Garden. In the first quarter of this year, Zhang Tai continued to lead with 4.744 billion yuan, and the growth expectation is improving. As for liabilities, Huang Haitao, chairman of Changtai Group, once said in an interview, "Our' three lines' are all green, and the net debt ratio is very low, only 10%. More money is deposited in the bank than we borrow from it. We don't owe the government a penny, there is no breach of contract, and the funds are in good condition. " Perhaps this is the reason why Sun Hongbin dispelled the doubts about the acquisition. Sun Hongbin is not optimistic about the M&A market in the second half of 20021. "At present, there is little chance in the M&A market, because every enterprise has a debt ceiling, and M&A will inevitably lead to an increase in the total liabilities of enterprises. Although the policy does not explicitly require reducing the total liabilities of housing enterprises, it does require a debt ceiling. " Related Q&A: Sunac China is suspended. What should I do with my house? Hello! As long as Sunac ensures that the delivery of the house, the payment of suppliers and the payment of financial institutions are not affected, suspension is not the key and has little impact on your house. The key is to see if Sunac can survive the debt crisis.

It is reported that Sunac, like other housing enterprises, has a "liquidity crisis". Simply put, if the house can't be sold, it will cost money and money. I can't stand it without money.

I can't stand it, so I'm naturally embarrassed to write financial reports. Without a financial report, it is natural to suspend trading. Of course, it must be said that the shutdown of housing enterprises may make the negative impact even greater.

1, negative impact of credit. As we all know, the suspension of trading is due to the failure to disclose the audited financial performance on time, so the market is worried about the transparency and information disclosure of the company, and its credit problems are damaged. 2. The negative impact of financing. The inability to issue an annual report due to the financial performance audit means that there are big problems in the company's finance and operation, investors have doubts about corporate governance, financial management, financial planning, finance and liquidity, and the company's financing is greatly negatively affected.

However, some housing enterprises have made it clear that the unaudited report will be released first, and then the audit report will be supplemented. In this regard, Sunac will also make up the financial report in the future.

At present, investors are more sensitive to the fact that housing enterprises do not publish annual reports. However, as an enterprise, active and frank communication can calm investors' concerns slightly, and we also hope that Sunac can better solve such storms and problems.

At the same time, the China Banking Regulatory Commission said that it will actively promote the transformation of the development mode of the real estate industry, encourage institutions to carry out M&A loans in a steady and orderly manner, and focus on supporting high-quality housing enterprises to merge and acquire high-quality projects with difficult housing enterprises.

Generally speaking, small housing enterprises are more likely to be merged, and some projects of large housing enterprises are taken over by some trust institutions. As for the house in your hand, it is an asset anyway. In the end, someone will always support your house project, but the house price will definitely fall.

For those who just need to buy a house, maybe this is good news. If many housing enterprises can't hold on, it will definitely cause a large number of houses to be sold in the market. If it is done well, it will form a stampede effect, which is more suitable for people who just need it.

Of course, it can only be said that you can start with a relatively cost-effective price. As for the price of cabbage, that's impossible.