In the institutional game, the performance in the market direction is king and becomes the first standard.

On April 2, A shares fluctuated at a high level. On that day, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.2% at 3 176.82, and once rushed to 3 193.27 in intraday trading. This is also the third consecutive trading day since March 29, when A shares rebounded to 3000 points.

The differences between fund managers have intensified, and the allocation focus has returned to the value leader.

In the 3200-point game, the market divergence is getting bigger and bigger.

"Don't say outside, our company's internal views are very inconsistent. Some fund managers are on the left and some are on the right. Continue to see more that this is a normal callback today, but it will help to rise further in the future. " On April 2, the head of a large Public Offering of Fund in Beijing said.

With the market taking off again for several days since March 29th, the discussion about the "secondary market" of A shares is also fermenting. Many institutions have put forward clearer expectations for the bull market, but on the other hand, there are still many institutions that the shock pattern has not changed.

After a month of continuous fluctuation around 3 100, the Shanghai Composite Index reached the peak of 3 176.

With the index rising again, the market's attention to whether another psychological point "3200 points" can be broken has also suddenly increased. The intraday Shanghai Composite Index stepped out of the high point of 3 192.53, which filled the market with imagination.

On April 1 day, Huang Yanming, director of Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute, said in response to the point analysis, "Once the index enters the position of 2900 to 3200, the sideways oscillation will not be so fast. If the sideways oscillation lasts for a long time, this market will not go on and will eventually fall; If the market index can go up and stick to the position near 3200, it will be easy to break through. Then if the market index breaks 3 150 today, it means that the reversal market has basically been established. "

"Once 3 150 is broken, we think that breaking 3200 is just around the corner. 3200-3500 basically has no resistance in the upward process after breaking 3200. It is not until the next stage, between 3500 and 3600, that new resistance will appear. " Huang Yanming thinks.

Of the 2 1 brokers who released the strategy research report this week (April1to April 2/),1clearly believed that the subsequent bull market rise was not over, but some brokers pointed out the risks of subsequent market differentiation and fluctuation.

"On March 29th, the market rose again, which confirmed our firm optimism about the A-share bull market in China. This actually marks the beginning of the second phase of the rise. " CITIC Jiantou Securities said.

Optimists include Zhongtai Securities, whose research points out that there is still a big gap between A shares and the peak of each bull market in terms of microstructure and valuation level.

"This week, the volume of the A-share market rose, breaking through the integer mark of 3 100 points and attacking 3200 points. After two consecutive days of market surge, it is normal for the market to have some shocks today. After the continuous surge, the market not only did not fall, but fluctuated and rebounded, which fully showed that the strong characteristics of the market were very obvious. What is clear now is that the market has turned from a rebound to a reversal, and the market trend has changed from the previous unilateral decline to a shock upward. This is the most important trend. " On April 2nd, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, pointed out in an interview.

It is worth noting that in the past few days, the volume of A shares has been enlarged again. The data shows that the turnover of the two cities exceeded one trillion in April 1 and April 2, and the turnover of the previous day exceeded one trillion in March 13.

Even so, whether the rising market of A shares can be sustained remains to be further tested by the market.

"A shares are scattered today, and the focus has spread to stagflation varieties and various themes. Hot money is active, and most of the value varieties are adjusted back today. You can participate in the rebound moderately, but be wary that the performance of listed companies and overseas economic trends in April may be lower than expected. " On April 2, a Public Offering of Fund fund manager in South China said.

In fact, as mentioned above, it is not uncommon for fund managers to be entangled and contradictory. In the feedback from many institutional people to our reporter, differences are still obvious features.

"Last year, there was a gap in the market around 3,200 points. If it can break through 3200 points this time, it is estimated that it will continue. If there is no breakthrough, it may be a short-term high. At present, it can only be said that it is step by step, and it is not easy to judge now. " On April 2nd, a Public Offering of Fund person told 2 1 Century Business Herald.

"The market began to rise in April, and the macro possible background is that the manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations. As far as we know, the sub-sectors have already had certain expectations for the improvement of the economy. In fact, the rise of A-shares on April 2 reflects more the rise of risk appetite, while large-scale industries with strong correlation with the economic cycle have not shown excessive excess returns. " The investment director of a large Public Offering of Fund in South China said.

In view of the improvement of macro-economy, the cautious judgment of these buyer institutions is not isolated. In the eyes of some sellers, the sustainability of the recovery is indeed doubtful.

Caitong Securities also pointed out that the future trend will remain volatile. On the one hand, the short-term optimism of the market needs time to digest. On the other hand, although the fundamentals are beginning to show signs of improvement, other data are needed for further confirmation. At the same time, because the fundamentals are not too bad, the probability of central bank easing will also be reduced. Therefore, the resistance of A-shares to continue to rise rapidly in the future is greater, and it is likely to maintain a wide range of shocks.

However, the contradiction to the overall trend has not changed the center of gravity in the allocation of institutions, and returning to fundamentals and value leaders is still the most mentioned direction.

"At present, the risk appetite of the GEM has reached a relatively overheated range, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and CSI 500, which represent the leaders in various fields, have more allocation value from the valuation point of view, and there is still obvious room for upward valuation. For the second quarter, the improvement of the economy may become the biggest expected difference in the second quarter. " A private equity institution in Beijing said.

"At present, the stock market is still driven by liquidity and risk appetite, but the slope slows down and the weight of profits rises. In terms of allocation, based on the short-term economic and profit verification period, it is suggested that the manufacturing industry with strong prosperity benefit from April 1 tax reduction; In addition, the strategic allocation of the financial supply and demand side, the demand-side new economic and technological innovation growth target, the supply-side non-bank finance, and the theme focus on strategic emerging industries mapped by the science and technology innovation board. " Golden Eagle Fund pointed out. (2 1 Century Business Herald)

This week, the volume of the A-share market rose, breaking through the integer mark of 3 100 points and attacking 3200 points. After two consecutive days of market surge, it is normal for the market to have some shocks today. After the continuous surge, the market not only did not fall, but fluctuated and rebounded, which fully showed that the strong characteristics of the market were very obvious. After the rising trend of the A-share market was formed, the effect of making money became more and more obvious, which attracted a large amount of funds to flow into the A-share market, including some investors in the market constantly adding positions, while some funds outside the market also continued to flow in, including foreign capital, funds flowing out of the property market and some funds withdrawn from traditional industries.

The gap between the two companies has been rising recently. I have always opposed investors to increase leverage, but we can regard the scale of the two financing as a weather vane of market sentiment. Often when the effect of making money in the market is obvious, the balance between the two companies will continue to rise, which also indicates that the trend of the market outlook may still be very strong.

After the Spring Festival, the A-share market started the first wave of short-selling rise, and the market stood at the 3000-point integer mark. Then above 3000 points, the differences between long and short increased. Some investors and analysts who are not determined even start to flip the air, and the voices that suggest risks are one after another. I think only investors who firmly believe in the bull market can really earn the benefits of the bull market. Above 3000 points, the adjustment of the market is the best time to open a position on the right. And some people who lack confidence in the bull market, or the so-called "slick faction", may be washed away by the market shock, thus embarking on the second wave of market.

A shares rose sharply in the two trading days this week. Since last Friday, the market has started the second wave of rising prices. I think this wave of gains is still raging. The A-share market has indeed been depressed for too long. In the past three years, the focus of the whole market has been moving down. Although the white stocks I have been optimistic about have gone out of the independent market and hit record highs, most of them have been losing ground in the past three years and have undergone major adjustments.

The rise of people's minds is an important driving force for this round of market rise. More importantly, the A-share market has fallen out of value after three years of adjustment. Valuation is the last word, and cheapness is the guiding force. At present, although the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has risen by about 20% from the low point and the P/E ratio has risen from ten times to 12 times, the valuation is at the bottom regardless of the history of A shares or compared with overseas markets. The valuation of CSI 300 is actually very attractive. It is very important to buy some investment. If you buy at a low cost, the later return will be very rich. Undoubtedly, the blue-chip stocks represented by CSI 300 are still at the bottom of the valuation and can still be allocated with emphasis. After the bull market starts, people often hesitate to invest.

Recently, some market analysts even tried to predict the rise and fall of the stock market in a month or a quarter, and even described the market. I think this is very difficult to do. I have repeatedly stressed to you that doing strategic research is to analyze and judge the general trend, not to tell fortune. The highest and lowest points are things that everyone knows afterwards. To predict getting hit in the face often. Strategy means strategy in English and also means "countermeasure" in English. When the market changes, it is necessary to make corresponding adjustments, which is the correct strategic method.

What is clear now is that the market has turned from a rebound to a reversal, and the trend of the market has changed from the previous unilateral decline to a shock upward. This is the most important trend. Any bull market is not a unilateral rise, and there will be many fluctuations in the middle, which is all too normal. You can't catch every wave of fluctuations, and it's hard for you to earn every wave of income. Therefore, I rarely mention some words that everyone likes to use in my report, such as throwing high and sucking low, lightening positions on rallies, buying low and selling high, which is impossible in operation. Because it is difficult for you to know what is high and what is low. If you want to earn the price difference due to market fluctuation, it is equivalent to playing with the whole market. That is undoubtedly asking for it.

Buffett's investment depends on time to change space and share the growth of the company. He will not make any judgment on the short-term trend of the market. In the short term, Mr. Market has a strange temper and will be influenced by all kinds of news, so we can't play games with Mr. Market. But we need to be friends with Mr. Value. In the process of market rising, we can grasp some high-quality stocks, be its shareholders and earn money for the company's value growth. Among the top 100 richest people in the world, Buffett is the only one who invests in stocks, and the other 99 are from industry. But in fact, I think Buffett is also in industry. He just distributes his assets to different professional managers for management. When he buys a company, he often holds it for more than ten years or even longer and becomes a shareholder of the enterprise. Is he trading stocks? He is actually in business.

The chairman of a listed company in China spent more than $2 million to have lunch with Buffett. The first thing he said when he met Buffett was: I'm in industry and I can't speculate in stocks, so I came to ask you for advice. Buffett replied humorously: I won't speculate in stocks either. Indeed, people who really invest in value and share the growth of the bull market will be good shareholders of the company and will invest for a long time instead of speculating in stocks. Chinese characters invented by China people are very interesting. How do you spell "Fried"? Add a "less" to a "fire". Fry on the fire, the more fried, the less. Therefore, I suggest that everyone must give up the idea of speculating in stocks and turn to investment. Only by being a good shareholder can we truly share the "golden decade" of the A-share market. (Yang Delong's Macro Strategy Research)

As the general manager and investment director of the Fund Management Department of Great Wall Fund, Yang Jianhua believes that the surge in the A-share market this year is mainly caused by factors such as the improvement of investors' risk appetite, the repair of market valuation, theme speculation and so on.

"In the medium and long term, the stock market is still improving, but in the context of the rapid rise of stock prices, we should pay attention to whether the performance growth in the short term can match the stock price." Yang Jianhua said. At present, investors should focus on whether the company's performance meets or even exceeds expectations, and whether it can match the rapidly rising stock price, because the continuous bull market needs the listed company's performance to be continuously honored.

In Yang Jianhua's view, in the past, it was increasingly difficult for the A-share market to profit from the price difference by telling concepts, themes and stories. Excellent companies with core competitiveness and sustained growth in performance finally win, and enterprise growth is the most important source of income for investment. However, because the market is disturbed by irrational factors such as investor sentiment and risk preference, some high-quality stocks are seriously underestimated, and high-quality stocks whose layout is wrongly killed will also earn money for valuation repair.

Mining cost-effective companies

For the next layout direction, Yang Jianhua believes that while grasping the main line of macroeconomic trends and industry development trends, we should look for industries with high prosperity or industries with long-term stable growth as "racetracks", and dig out high-cost stocks with matching valuation and growth through the analysis of the intrinsic value of enterprises.

In stock selection, Yang Jianhua mainly considers the following factors: excellent management, good corporate governance structure, R&D investment, operating cash flow and return on equity. "The above factors can be reflected in the advantages of the company's brand, technology, resources, management and business model. When investing, priority should be given to companies with predictable performance, clear development path and endogenous growth. " Yang Jianhua said.

For the specific layout direction, Yang Jianhua is mainly optimistic about three major areas: large consumption, high-end equipment manufacturing and independent innovation. In his view, with the implementation of the tax reduction and fee reduction policy, the consumption power of domestic residents will be further enhanced and the consumption upgrading trend will be strengthened. The growth of domestic demand will be more healthy and sustainable, and the driving force of economic growth will be stronger, which will help leading enterprises in related consumption fields to obtain better business performance.

China's economy is changing from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage, and high-end equipment manufacturing, scientific and technological innovation and other fields are expected to achieve greater development. Yang Jianhua predicted that more companies with leading technology and excellent product quality would emerge in these fields.

Judging from the long-term trend of the market, Yang Jianhua believes that the next long-term trend is to tilt towards leading companies with core competitiveness, so the long-term layout opportunities of high-quality leading companies are worth grasping. (shanghai securities news)

(Clouds grow long and water grows long)