Tao and investment technology and its development road

We often hear that Tao comes from Laozi and Tao, but Tao is extraordinary and the so-called Tao is natural. In other words, Tao is a mysterious rule and principle, which is unclear and not the real Tao.

In the first chapter of the Art of War, Sun Tzu wrote: Tao brings people into harmony with the world, so they can die with it, live with it, and be fearless of difficulties and dangers. I believe many investors have had this experience: companies that don't have a deep understanding are afraid of heavy positions and are prone to anxiety. This is the determination not to live and die with it.

There are many methods, such as daily limit method, trend method, band method and price investment method. All dharma reverts to Buddhism, and all Tao can finally be summed up as: potential.

Looking at the graphics and the fundamentals of the company is essentially optimistic about a trend. The former refers to the direction of capital, while the latter refers to the direction of company development. Isn't it the truth that the world trend is mighty, those who follow it prosper and those who go against it die?

Of course, in different time periods, the trend may have different forms of expression, and sometimes it even presents two contradictory sides. For example, in a rising cycle, the stock price will also have a callback; A well-developed company may also encounter minor setbacks. How to treat it depends on the pattern of investment and the level of operation.

In short, what to do, what not to do and why to do in investment are all strategic issues and direction issues. Only Ming Dow Lu Qing can run calmly.

Doing or not doing it involves judging the general trend of the market, and judging the general trend is always difficult. The second brother believes that comprehensive analysis can be made from the macro level, financial level and technical level. The "three bowls of noodles" here are all chewy. Macroscopically, the keynote is determined, and the capital determines the motivation. The technical response to the current trend involves many aspects and is subjective.

Taking macro-level research as an example, many brokerage research institutes have specialized analysts engaged in research. In hindsight, they got the title of "fortune teller" because they guessed right several times.

Some investors believe that it is not necessary to look at the general trend, but to study the project clearly. In fact, no one can successfully trade stocks regardless of the general trend, just as no one can get wet without an umbrella in rainy days.

What is surgery?

As mentioned above, Tao solves the problem of strategy and direction. What is it used for? In the second brother's understanding, the technique must solve the problem of how to buy, how much to buy, how to sell, how much to sell, and how to stop loss if you make a mistake. The popular language is: technology is a problem at the transaction level.

In Jin Yong's novel "The Condor Heroes", he wrote in the four realms of lonely defeat and sword casting:

"The nameless sword, sharp and powerful, invincible, is used to compete with Heshuo for the weak crown; Soft sword, Wei Zi, owned before the age of 30, accidentally injured the righteous man, but abandoned the deep valley; The epee has no front, and the clever thinking is ineffective. Before the age of forty, it was rampant all over the world; After forty years old, after forty years old, you don't stop at things, but all plants, trees, bamboo and stones can be swords. Since then, I have been diligent and gradually improved to the realm that no sword is better than a sword. "

Swordsmanship and moves are Tao, and what kind of sword is skill. For Dugu, with the deepening understanding of kendo, what material the sword is made of has gradually become unimportant, and in the end it is regarded as nothing.

There is a saying that I don't know who said it, and it feels very reasonable: there is no way to do it, and the technique is acceptable, and it ends with no way to do it.

In the investment industry, few people really understand this word. Take basic analysis as an example. How many people really understand basic analysis? Many people are probably cheated. Take trend analysis and technical analysis as examples. How many people really understand? Most of them are carving boats for swords. Therefore, before getting the word, learning is also a diligent ladder.

For investment/speculation, trading needs to sum up experience and lessons from practice, and look for market rules from the perspective of logic and statistics. The devil hides in the details, and only by finding the static password can we deal with it in a dynamic environment.

On this road, the huge members of the wrong family are waiting to meet you all the time, and no one can take your place. Even if Munger tells you, "Young man, it's dangerous not to go anywhere", you will still try, because this is human nature.

How to promote Tao and art?

No matter the progress of Tao and technique, it must go through four links: principle, experience, skill and system. First of all, there must be a principle, a principle that makes sense logically and conforms to one's own personality and behavior habits. The so-called thinking determines the way out.

For example, Feng Liu's principle is clear: first, use Man Cang to resist upward risks; Second, use dispersion+safety margin to resist downside risks; Third, because I am not particularly good at the fundamental analysis of the company, I can't see the distant future clearly, so I choose stocks that have fallen sharply or risen sharply, buy and observe first, and then determine the key points.

Experience comes from actual combat under the guidance of principles. Only when there are enough samples, and you have been through many battles, the experience summarized is valuable, and if there are too few samples, there is no universal significance. Experience has two sides: on the one hand, it tells you what to do, on the other hand, it tells you what not to do.

Skills are distilled from experience. From experience to skill, this step is not simple, because it is necessary to observe subtle differences and discard the false and retain the true. Many people may not have summed up a few practical skills in their investment toolbox because they are not talented or diligent enough. Not many people have a three-pronged axe. Some people eat all the fresh ones at one stroke, which is the power of skill.

The system is a systematic application of many skills, that is to say, the system is based on skills, skills are scattered beads, and beads can be strung together with lines to have a system. This part, without talent or inspiration, is difficult to break through this step, and most people stop here. Some people quickly crossed this step because of the guidance of famous teachers, and some people broke enough paper through unremitting efforts and rich skills.

When the system is formed, investment will be considered as an introduction. At this time, there are rules and standards to guide behavior, and when things happen, you will be calm and calm, and you will not be flustered and shocked again.